[PB37 SPOILER] Coeurva, Bacchus -- Cyrus of Carthage

[Bacchus]

I really hate civstats:

[Coeurva]

That was Cincinnati going down (-1 pop to CML).

Unless you mean exactly that the raze should have been kept secret (impossible with CivStats), so that Savant doesn't get ambitious with us, because now everybody's been told whom we're bordering and (roughly) what we're doing. In that case, yeah... my hope is that it'll cheer up dtay (whom I was also surprised to see in last place) and get him to try something with CML, e.g. capturing his Henge city.

Will reply to your excellent post tomorrow.

[Coeurva]

Settlers

Operational stuff again, but this is where I don't agree. We have to play to our traits we'll just fall behind in economy compared to EXP etc., and while I agree that we can plant new cities a bit more slowly (i.e. prioritizing workers over settlers), without double-settler builds in the next 20t, CHM means we can and should whip wherever we lack the worker labour (indeed, whip new workers). The most limiting factor to further expansion is our commerce output, but that's precisely what's about to increase with the land we already have, whereas our food resources are almost all improved right now. Indeed, founding X7 Rice allows us to add an additional 8 commerce (furs; whales at Ignis) within 12t of its settlement.

There is, for instance, little point growing vertically here if we can't actually improve enough -- or valuable -- tiles (capital is the exception). Grass mines aren't efficient vis-à-vis double-whips below ~size7, even when those only yield 50h in RtR. As long as we can improve the food rather quickly, the shortage of worker labour actually supports horizontal expansion (more build queues + food => more whips => more worker builds, directly or indirectly by freeing up other cities to build workers).

We'll have 8 workers on ~T65, which is only the minimum still, but I think we can keep up from there. Vermin, for example, can whip one after producing the settler and growing to 4. Sicil can also delay the eighth settler to slot in a worker first. That would be 10 workers on 7 cities roughly by ~T72 -- quite sufficient. By that time, we can even finish another worker at Rhapsody, then chop the settler using our last two forests, so that X8 gets founded in time.

In any case, I think X7 on islands is far too late. We gain Sailing on T66 at the earliest (by not teching AH), when no city can whip a galley without impeding infra builds; nor could they double-whip due to lack of pop, so we'd need actual hammer tiles for the 1-pop whip, and our current ports simply don't have them. We'll also lack scouting information on the islands and I doubt we'd be able to afford ferrying over a worker at that time.

X8 on islands is possible, though.

Savant

He isn't currently investing EP into us at all, which means we could allocate ours to him and find out a bit more about his plans (13t to see research, if he doesn't react). Problem is that CML obviously puts all of his EP into us and would probably gain research visibility in turn.

EDIT: We could try sending 2-3 axes over towards Sorpigal or Harmondale soon and "ask" him for his world map. Although that would probably sour relations. (Also, cost us maintenance for units outside cultural borders, and ties up units far from the south.)

You'll have to tell me which clue about Gavagai you've spotted in the snake pick, I'm not seeing it.

Savant building barracks in his unseen third city could indicate cultural pressure from his other neighbour, but not necessarily. My guess is Krill or Gavagai, though, simply because Savant spends zero EP on us and we haven't seen a single scouting unit from him all game (even that work boat veered off along that north-western peninsula, long before reaching Sicil's borders), which seems to suggest that he has his hands full with someone else (indeed, good for us); Krill and Gavagai are probably the highest-skilled players in the field who don't avoid early conflicts (dtay too, but he isn't the neighbour; Joey has the skill, but early military build-up doesn't seem to be his style). Indeed, I'd be surprised if Savant knew where any of our cities are located (which is why we're not trading him our map).

Other players

Krill's cap is size7, so count him among those who prioritize the capital. I'm not sure if Gavagai's capital is actually larger than ours right now. CML has also been keeping his capital around size5 for ~15t now, suggesting an early focus on its growth.

Henge was worth 16 points to CML iirc, so he's probably lagging behind more than his score suggests. Possibly excluding Ventessel/Adrien, we're also the only team that (still) hasn't gained culture in any non-capital city, which means our score is slightly better in comparison than it appears.

One aspect you haven't mentioned is the player who has 66,000 soldier points. That looks rather high (we're in second place at 52,000 with four axes running around, so that would be roughly six of them), and might indicate early war plans (or early Iron Working). Who could that be?

* It's dtay, and his score is low because he's been building AGG axes to take the Stonehenge city and beyond (dtay whips quite a lot iirc from CivStats, which also contributes to his low score). That would be just about the best we can hope for, because CML will probably hurry over to the other border and not build a lot of spears, allowing us to attack with chariots.
* It's Savant's mysterious northern neighbour. That would also explain why Savant doesn't scout us, has suddenly built at least two metal units in a single turn, and logs in quite often (including ipecac playing some turns) -- he needs every single unit on a different border.
* It's someone else entirely. Well, we know it's neither of our neighbours. It's probably not JR4/Ref because they've just landed Buddhism, and it seems inconsistent to tech Meditation while planning to attack someone; nor can they have teched IW recently


Water

Fully agree that the strange layout of the continent with its chokepoints and odd protrusions of land supports a focus on the waters. Besides, all our city spots from X4 (Lifeblood) onwards have been or will be coastal for the time being, which makes a navy to defend them all the more important. We're also Carthage (cothons).

The immediate tech path will be AH (T64) -> Sailing (~T72, coinciding with growth of X7 Rice to produce work boat) mostly because I feel chariots could come in useful in the south, and T66 Sailing doesn't unlock anything earlier (ports don't have enough production at that time for 1-pop whipping galleys) except connecting X7 Rice to the trade network 6t earlier (6c lost).

[Bacchus]

The snake pick goes Dtay -> CML -> Us -> Savant. Which just happens to be the actual layout of these civs on the map. Mardoc could have placed us in pick order in whatever-shaped chain he came up with.

[Bacchus]

On all the rest, I don't have any bones to pick with your thinking. Regarding the approach to dealing with Savant, I think we just need to keep a couple of real units in Ignis and a zonal warrior (just as a delaying meat shield and insurance against low-odds losses)

[Coeurva]

The snake pick goes Dtay -> CML -> Us -> Savant. Which just happens to be the actual layout of these civs on the map. Mardoc could have placed us in pick order in whatever-shaped chain he came up with.

I see you've retained your unmatched vision. Yeah, great find. (I think the blanks tempted me to try and figure out whether there was something special about Suryavarman in this set-up.)

Incidentally... that would mean Gavagai and Krill share a border (welp!) -- now I'm almost sure that either of them is the 66,000 soldiers civ. This is indeed great news, because Gavagai can't attack Savant at his leisure with Krill of all players next to him, but neither can Savant afford not to keep watch on Gavagai (who is unquestionably a better player than I am).

I wonder if any other teams have caught on, since CML's neighbours are public knowledge to everyone keeping half an eye on meta-information. I expect Krill and Savant to have figured this out as well.

Regarding the Savant border, I think we can easily get two of our barb defense axes en route (whip capital next turn; 15 OF into worker; this is actually the best plan I can see -- couldn't 1-whip the 28/60 granary, and this puts extra food into the box over building the worker right away; regrow to size5 on granary, then slowbuild worker, then chop X8 settler).

And Ari the warrior is playing zone sentry (not really defense...), intermittently peeking inside Harmondale (can't see Sorpigal due to terrain), with Ames-Ace available from the capital if needed. Whether these axes move out of Ignis or not will be up to our discretion afterwards.

On another note, I'm thinking we'll want to get to Currency via Alphabet.

Alphabet:
* Allows us to open borders with dtay once we meet him, who will appreciate the extra commerce, and is our natural ally right now
* Allows us to open borders with Savant for a price, such as his world map (no freebie for him)
* Allows us to build spies against CML, which will grow even more important come CoL / courthouses, because he probably can't compete. Of course, that's a long way off, but a single early spy could work wonders. Also useful for scouting through and past Savant's territories.
* Allows us to use mines for actual unique purposes (can't whip research), converting hammers into beakers (and we have decent MFG)

Maths:
* Awards us 10h more on imaginary forests. I'm not kidding, we'll chop almost all of the remaining ones by T70. (Discounting those we yet have to settle / pop borders onto, though.)
* Opens up Calendar. Well, we can see a grand total of one Calendar resource, and thanks to CHM, our happy cap is 9 after hooking up all our Ancient-era resources (10 after Iron Working + gems), so there's no bottleneck here. The Mausoleum is roughly worth as much as a first-to Great Person from research (not all that comparable, but eh) and obsoletes at Nationalism in the mod. The tech centers the world map, though!
* Opens up Construction. That's actually useful, but HBR is probably the better tech to research, because Shock-promoted NumCav make a compelling argument even against spears, and then every spear CML builds is a unit he can't really attack us with.
* Allows us to build useless 100h +2 health buildings whose map graphics have insanely wonky pathfinding
* Allows us to build the Hanging Gardens -- They're actually kind of useful, since CML will have less to gain from them, so IND will not enter the competition, but horse archers will probably accomplish a larger boost to our population (cough cough).
* I guess we can build forts

[Bacchus]

You forgot the issue of cost, isn't Alpha ridiculously expensive in RtR? For me that was the only reason to get maths. Oh, also Music.

[Coeurva]

It's actually costed down (in this version). 250 base, same as Maths iirc. EDIT: You're right about Music. Also, RtR spies only see the tile they're standing on, so they're not quite as good.

[Coeurva]

From CML's city placement, I think dtay should be somewhere west of him, which makes the Donut option seem plausible again (we also know that there's a peninsula of some size west of Savant's capital). Using your idea, the map could look roughly like this:

Code:

.
                  Krill
  Ventessel & AdrienIer
                        Gavagai
German Joey
                           Dark Savant & ipecac
   JR4 & RefSteel
                        Us
       dtay
                  CML

and we would be overseas neighbours with Ventessel across the south-eastern sea due to the Toroidal worldwrap.

[Coeurva]

T61.

Reports will be short until July 17.


Six cities, only six workers (soon two more). At 100% research, GNP is 39 (ranked #4). Soldiers will increase by another 6,000 eot.

CML whipped something on his turn, seemingly not in the capital. The situation in the south looks under control (can see 1 axe, 2 warriors); we have 1 axe, 1 warrior, 1 axe on the way (and possibly the C1 axe we have now); his worker is roading the forest 78 of Cahokia, not chopping it -- I assume CML wants either to resettle -- or to hit us with chariots. Vermin can produce a spear by then, though (we have one in the queue at 1/35h, actually). We'll be careful not to walk within range of possible chariots.

From T70, our southern cities will change to full military production, unless the situation changes. Why? CML will have to build either military or further settlers/workers to continue his game; if he builds archers/spears, he can't attack into our axes -- but he'll only build these if we show offensive presence; if he builds axes or chariots, we'll have an army to destroy his stack with -- his supply lines are quite long (as are ours), so combined arms is difficult, so chariots can be stopped by our own chariots + spears; if he builds settlers/workers, he doesn't build military and we do.

Also, our southern cities are well set-up to emulate short-term Sacrificial Altars. E.g. once Vermin hits size4, we can build 2 chariots in 4t via whip; repeat this thrice (granary ensures cycle); the extra 2 unhappiness is equalized by CHM (the 3rd unhappy wears off), and we're hooking up 3 Ancient-era happiness resources by T80. Our aim should be to produce a dozen units of any necessary flavour by that point; the capital can help because it will have to grow onto cottages anyway (~T90 Academy).

The library plan in Lifeblood has been put on ice; the city will build a granary instead (whip + chop + residual hammers from silver mine). (Can still whip work boat, which will scout the western waters for us.)

Founding Whitehall revealed a good site for Savant on his peninsula, 999 of Whitehall itself (which has first ring irrigated corn + clams + second-ring plains incense). He'll want Calendar more than we do. Also revealed some land in the north-west that was bleeding through fog; site can grab second-ring clams + fish but seems to have no first-ring food; said fish is reached by the library in Whitehall, though. Possible X8.

AH will take another turn, since I miscalced. So ETA T65, and then we improve horses a.s.a.p.

Capital barb combat: warrior walked 4, killed it with axe, 2XP => took Combat 1 to heal him. There's another warrior incoming (currently 999 of Rhapsody); afterwards, this axe will go towards CML.

Largest cities are 7, 6, 6, 5, 5 (us). Neighbours' capitals both size5. Savant has 4 cities (but not ended turn yet). CML has 3.