[Spoilers] CH tries to be more than a warm body

[Cheater Hater]

Generally if you want to communicate an intention to attack, try an Iron-for-Iron or Copper-for-Copper deal, and throw in some amount of gold to indicate when you want to attack. It's simpler in your case since REM and Serdoa/NH would immediately understand that you're talking about taotao, so no need to invent some convoluted signage indicating the target.

If you want to keep Maersk, you may want to take some LBs and Spears along - bearing in mind that the 2-movers of the Mondatta stack could hit New Nairobi two turns from war, so be sure you have enough force to wipe/cripple the Iron stack.

I guess gold isn't part of the "outside communication" rule, just the fact that I would have to be okay with them accepting the deal (and if I'm offering 3 gold it's fine; 139 probably isn't in terms of my tech rate)--again, can someone please confirm that a "countdown"-style diplo is okay within the rules?

The annoying thing is that I can't get any 1-movers into Maersk without telegraphing the move beforehand (moving them out of the cities), even if I do road that tile--I can get them onto the iron/hill though, which protects Maersk for a turn.

Any thoughts on the actual plan Fenn?

[Fenn]

As for the plan, I'd agree that you need to get REM or Serdoa (or both) on-side. I think your plan to take Maersk and wipe taotao's Iron stack looks good, I don't see why it wouldn't work apart from the reasons you listed, but it won't do you any good for long if he gets to turn his focus exclusively on you. That said, if your initial attack is successful, capturing Maersk and wiping his stack, that in and of itself may encourage his neighbours to attack. But it's not worth counting on. If his one stack by Mondatta is a big threat short-term, then the rest of his power will probably be impossible to hold back for more than a dozen turns.

Also his MFG is just too high. If it isn't possible to ally with one of taotao's neighbours it might be wiser to just call off the attack.

[Cheater Hater]

Well, there isn't that much new on the taomack front--he offered me free wheat, but I declined it since I wasn't sure if that would lock me into peace (and I don't actually need it right now). He also put another CG2 Longbow into Maersk, but that isn't quite as bad as it seems since I'll have Cover on my Knights (though it's obviously bad--I'd rather that than have the iron stack move in at least).

[AutomatedTeller]

Taking a trade that's offered you won't kick in a peace treaty - that's assenting to a demand for something from you. And that may only be the case in SP from an AI. But if someone offers you wheat for free, the game doesn't enfore a peace treaty.

[Mardoc]

And that may only be the case in SP from an AI.

Yup. The only thing that locks in an unbreakable treaty in MP is signing a peace treaty from a state of war.

[Cheater Hater]

Thanks for the confirmation everyone, I just wanted to be sure (and I think I've asked this multiple times ) Hopefully mackoti just offers it again and doesn't think anything is up because I declined it the first time--of course we'll see how the troops move once I can log in (aka once REM continues to clean up Elkad).

Edit: Turn played, not much new--the mini-stack where my axe was moved, and that Spear went into Maersk unfortunately--every decent unit means my Knights have less of a chance, especially with enough units to hit the second stack. As for the diplo, REM accepted my copper/copper deal, while Serdoa didn't accept the horse/horse deal (I didn't have another copper, and I didn't want to risk my iron at all when I have to build a million Knights). I re-offered each deal with a 2 this time--hopefully at least REM gets the message (he's moving on Elkad again at least, taking the second-to-last city, though I have no clue where the last city is atm, or if he'll even bother given my message), as I assume Serdoa will join in whenever we start doing damage (or his peace treaty runs out, whichever is later).

[Cheater Hater]

Well, things aren't looking good right now--the folder is here and I don't feel like making a full report and/or military overview, but three bad things happened this turn:
1. Another Longbow was added to Maersk--thankfully it's unpromoted, and it won't have much fortify bonus, but it's still another Longbow to slog through. That means the total I would have to sim is 3 Longbows (2 CG2), 2 Spears (1 C1), 1 WE, 1 HA (C1 Shock), and 1 Chariot (C1 Medic). I'm going to lose 5 Knights up front at least, though if they can do decent damage (more likely if I use promoted ones) I should clean up afterward--I'm expecting to lose 2 Knights on each of the CG2 Longbows though.
2. 7 Knights have shown up in the area--and no, that isn't part of the stack in the north. That means I'm probably going to lose a decent number of units on the counter-attack, and I almost certainly can't afford to keep Maersk
3. All the mounted units in the iron stack have moved 1NW. That isn't actually that bad, since my Knights still reach that tile (assuming the culture works out like I expect), but they just won't get to be collateraled down. I'll be able to specifically save Formation Knights to attack that stack at least.

Of course, not everything went bad this turn--the culture still appears to be on track (though there's obviously another turn to worry about). I also got Serdoa to accept the horse for horse deal so I might have that support? I didn't send the "1" message to either person this turn (though I obviously have time if I still want to), since these changes made me nervous. Still, considering I've done the diplo, am I obligated to declare next turn, assuming I don't get totally wiped out at Maersk in my sims? I really have a ton of Knights out, and I'm only 15k soldiers down (~25 Knights, though a lot of that is certainly Population and Buildings). If I'm going to die, wouldn't I rather do it in a blaze of glory this time?

Edit: I did send out the "1" message to both REM and Serdoa--hopefully this works. I still need to do all the sims though...

[Fenn]

I see REM accepted the Copper/Copper deal (hope taotao doesn't notice that...). And, Serdoa has a peace treaty with taotao? If so I'd have suggested you not try to attack yet. It looks like the razing and peace happened on T131/132, so there's still 4 turns before they could join possibly join in. I think you can click on their leader head in the diplo web and see what deals they have with taotao; could you check that?

If you, REM and Serdoa do attack all at once, you might stand a chance against the Dutch. Not to advocate rushing to your doom, but if you don't attack taotao in the near future, when could you? They're smoking their neighbours in GNP and production, and there's not much you can do to bridge that gap peacefully. Those 7 Knights are going to become 14 Knights eventually, or maybe 7 Cuirassiers. There's little chance of them getting invaded by some stronger power at this point, either. Personally I'd take the risk, live or die, rather than slowly fade into irrelevance. It's your game and not mine, though.

[Cheater Hater]

Well, this is an interesting turn--two civs have already been eliminated, neither of which being Elkad. Oh, and taotao declared on me.

Yes, you read that right--taotao declared on me the turn I was likely to declare on him. This mostly seemed like a preemptive strike and an attempt at a peace treaty--only my scouts were killed (along with a couple workers), but a Chariot got lucky and killed one of his HAs, so it actually wasn't that bad. Other than that, taotao hasn't really moved any troops into my territory. The nice thing is that I got city visibility on a bunch of taotao's cities, so you can see most of his troops in the area in the pre-turn folder. Overall here's how the nearby troop numbers look:
CH:
25 Knights (8 3-promote, 6 2-promote, 10 1-promote, 1 C1)
3 HAs (2 2-promote)
2 Chariots (1 C1)
11 Cats (4 2-promote, 4 1-promote)
7 Axes (5 in attacking position)
4 Spears (4 in attacking position)
1 WE
4 Longbows
2 Archers

Total: 58
2-movers: 30

taotao/mackoti:
Maersk:
3 Longbows (CG2)
1 WE
2 Spears (1 C1)

Iron stack:
4 Swords (1 C1)
4 Cats

1NW of iron:
3 Knights
4 HAs (2 C1)
1 Chariot (C1)

2N of iron (still in range of the New Nairobi 2-movers I think, if the 1NW stack falls):
7 Knights
1 Chariot

Miscellaneous attackable:
3 HA (1 damaged C1, 1 damaged C1 Shock, 1 undamaged C2)
1 Chariot

Total: 34

--Unattackable line--
Mondatta:
3 Knights (C2)
4 Cats
3 Axes (1 C1 Shock, 2 C1)
1 Spear
1 Sword

1NW of Mondatta:
2 Knights
2 HAs (C1 Shock)
1 Chariot

Other visible 2-movers:
4 Knights
1 Chariot (C1)

Total: 22
2-movers: 13


Complete total: 56
2-movers: 33

Surprisingly I actually have more units in the vicinity of the battle (and that doesn't even count a couple Knights I just built this turn and will be showing up soon. The good thing is that there are actually fewer units in Maersk now (though the units that moved were mounted, and thus have no defenses), so breaking through should be easy. I also think I might be able to break into the second wave, but that might just be wishful thinking. Of course, now I need to do some sims to see what happens

Edit: I actually built my sandbox--this one has no promotions that aren't already locked in, for maximum flexibility, so you'll need to set those.

[Cheater Hater]

This will be where I keep track of all the sims I do--and holy crap have I been underestimating the power of Knights. I did a no-promotion test run just to see where I stood--and I nearly cleared out all the units! Granted, I got a lot of lucky 50-50 rolls in the generic Knight vs Knight battles, but even before then, the only units I lost were 3 Knights weakening the Longbows, 2 Cats weakening the iron stack (1 retreated), and 1 HA used to try to save some Knights for the final push. I was even getting odds on the Spears in Maersk! And don't forget my sandbox isn't perfect--C6 isn't a perfect analog for max fortify bonus, but not all the units in Maersk even have that! Now I'm going to run some basic tests with just C1 on all the 2-movers, as well as sending in 1-promote Cats--see you in a bit!
Mini-edit: That first test run accidentally excluded a WE from Maersk--the previous results are still good though. Here's the link to a new sandbox--I've given C1 to all the 2-movers, and promoted all the applicable Cats up the Barrage line.

Real Edit: Round 2 of sims is complete, and it was virtually identical to the last round. This is despite adding a unit relative to the last round (the WE I forgot) and getting more-normal luck in the beginning. I lost 4 Knights softening up the Longbows (one more than last time, and lost some outdated units trying to save Knights for the final stretch. The most important part of this round though is that C1 is more than enough to cut through Maersk and the iron stack, meaning I can save all my Formation Knights for the final stretch against Knights specifically, so I can hopefully delete the entire stack and give Serdoa and REM some hope (REM does have a scouting warrior in the area at least). Unfortunately I can't do much more than that with promotions--even if I wanted to, Knights and HA's can't take Cover

Full Edit 2: Here's the sandbox with all the 2-mover promotions (I think the 1-movers have some promotions I haven't covered), and look at the carnage! This is a very lucky run, but I managed to kill all of the 2N stack, the HA on the side, have a Knight to spare, and not have to use any Longbows to clean up the iron stack! As I said, it was very lucky, especially since one of my C1 Knights managed to beat a Longbow at <30% odds. Still, the real strength here is being able to save my Formation Knights--they get 90% on the opposing vanilla Knights! Overall, this campaign should be a success as far as wiping out the initial forces.

Now I need to figure out what happens beyond my sandbox. There are some Cats waiting in Mondatta, so I have to assume most of my Formations Knights are going to die, though some of them are out of range of the 1-movers if he doesn't have Engineering (though taotao doesn't have that many units that can actually attack--mostly just 5 Knights, a Spear and some more outdated units that can clean up the collateralled units). However, there's one more thing to be concerned about--taotao has an East Indiaman (UU Galleon) that could have 4 more units bearing down on Angola. This is why I was concerned about using the Longbows to clean up the iron stack--I want them to defend Angola, and possibly other cities down the coastline, as I obviously can't do anything about ships right now (I don't even have Optics, much less the Frigates I would need to compete with them). The one good thing about seeing a Galleon is that taotao used that research (and the production, to a lesser extent) to go down the Compass line rather than towards Engineering or other military techs (or the Liberalism line/Printing Press, in another direction), though we do know he has Nationalism (though I don't know if he revolted to Nationhood yet). I still need to be whipping as much military as possible though, and need to revert to a defensive posture if I don't get support from other people.

Anyway, that's about all I can do from here--next time I'll have pictures from the actual turn