[Spoiler] Fintourist loses his multiplayer virginity

[Fintourist]

Turn 97

I received visibility of Sareln's border city:

There are a preat and an axe in the city so it looks like Sareln is not taking any risks with me. Preats as city defenders are hard to break before cats/crossbows/maces/janissaries (so let's get there soon!). He also settled his 9th city so as expected his horizontal expansion has now truly started. I still have 16 more pop points and I hope to stay a step ahead despite his cheap granaries, forges and workers.

Sareln's reporting activity has increased again. Last time it meant wonders and I believe that this will be the case again. I haven't done exact calculations but based on sabotage production costs he has a bunch of hammers gathered both in his capital and in a city of Coriander. I would not be surprised if MoM and Colossus would be finished shortly. Coriander has a forge already..

Most important domestic news arrived when I ended my turn:

First of all, I'm happy that I did not get a low odds (14 %) prophet. I value Academy significantly higher than the Shrine. Next turn will be a record-breaking turn for my economy!

I also decided to finish IW already (despite not having an academy in place) because Roland Garros will start working more tiles again next turn. Based on Azza's and Sareln's iron locations I practically knew that my source will be on one of those two grassland hills next to RG. This time I was lucky with that 50-50 chance! Worker turns are currently kind of a scarce resource and I'm happy that I can delay mining the second hill there just a bit!

[Old Harry]

That's a good shout with pre-mining the iron! Was it really 50-50 or did you have a hunch?

How many beakers did you lose finishing iw this turn rather than after the academy? Are the extra hammers worth it?

[AutomatedTeller]

Dunno if that was the right play or not - but that's good thinking!!

[Fintourist]

That's a good shout with pre-mining the iron! Was it really 50-50 or did you have a hunch?

Well, I knew from tile yields the locations of Azza's and Sareln's iron sources so assuming fair and roughly mirrored distribution of strategic resources I practically knew that it would be on one of those hills. Now that I'm thinking more of it, I remember that I chopped a forest on the eastern hill which means that the resource had to be on the western hill. The fact that I had it premined has however nothing to do with this hunch. That hill simply fitted better to my worker micro a while back when a worker was improving his way towards my most northern island city.

How many beakers did you lose finishing iw this turn rather than after the academy? Are the extra hammers worth it?

I admit that I did not do exact calculations.. I checked it now and it looks like I missed 13 beakers. So effectively I traded 13 beakers for 2 hammers, which in fact sounds like a bad deal.. Of course earlier knowledge of my second metal source (especially if it had not been directly connected) has some value. Oh well, that was a good question.

[Fintourist]

Dunno if that was the right play or not - but that's good thinking!!

I kind of convinced myself now that it was a small mistake and I should have just waited a turn longer so your doubts are correct! But thanks anyway

[Fintourist]

Turn 98

As already advertised my economy took a major step forward this turn:


I used my GS to build an academy in Ace, swapped to Bureaucracy and also back to Slavery. Yeah, it's a golden age, but 178.5 beakers is a pretty respecatable amount for a capital as it's still 425 BC. (Without GA it creates a bit more than 140 raw beakers).

This economic boost brought me up to 365 raw beakers, which was almost enough to finish MC from the scratch:

You can also see that I finished a settler, spear and an axe. Everyone except Hydra has been building some military and I'm keeping up. Sareln has now 2-3 preats in play and I'm happy that I have my galley working as a sentry and securing my border there. Let's note here that Viqsi also finished IW and settled her 8th city this turn.

Here are my last GA-demos. I will miss you

With Sareln collecting cash the GNP-stat looks kind of crushing. Even without Golden Age it's ~330. After I ended GA, my production stat dropped back to the level of rival average. Food lead is also promising, but now as my Golden Age ended I will whip some of it away. We'll see how everything develops..

Aaand back to dynamic programming...

[Fintourist]

Turn 99

Let's do a quick update here, I'll provide a comprehensive overview when we have reached T100 and I've hopefully passed that damn course.

Anyways, domestically:

• I finished MC
  
• Triple-whipped a settler in TTAC
  
• Chopped a lighthouse (CoT) and a granary (in Soft Hands, not visible)
  
• Grew my capital to size 12
  

Internationally, this turn was interesting:
Sareln completed the Colossus in Coriander (as forecasted ) and whipped a total of 5 pop points away. I tried to take a look what he might have produced and noticed an aqueduqt in Dill. That of course does not make any kind of sense for an EXP civ... unless one also builds the Hanging Gardens... Sareln is definitely making most out of his IND-trait I was hoping that my other opponents would build a wonder or two, but Sareln's cheap forges, OR bonus and IND-bonus (and the fact that he is ahead everyone else except me in tech) make it hard to win any wonder races. No idea if others have tried building something. At least I haven't noticed any fail gold spikes.

I've been spending my EPs mostly on Sareln and finally received research visibility as I ended my turn. He is collecting cash (300g) with Civil Service selected. I expect him to launch his first MoM powered golden age and switch to Bureaucracy in 5-10 turns!

Azza settled his 11th city and I believe that he finished MC as well. Yeah, I will get a trireme or two soon into our little playground.

Now, no more updates until I know how to apply Euler-Lagrange equation etc. properly..

[Fintourist]

Turn 100 – State of the World – Massive Update!!
Exam done and hopefully I passed it. That means it is time to provide a massive update about the game situation, which is what Sareln ordered from the players. In order to make it more practical to read everything I've tried to organize this in sections. Lurkers, give this update a chance!

Domestic Core Areas:

Let's start with an overview shot. I'll show my cities later in detail so probably the most important points here are:

• I finished Archery with overflow from MC
  
• I currently make 134 gold with 0 % research
  

And of course this:

I will settle this "filler"-gold-clam city next turn and spread religion into it. It will be a slow starter with no food resources in the first ring and no realistic possibilities to spread irrigation, but eventually it will be ok.

Western Areas - Azza front:

This the area that shows the islands immediately west of my core. Things to note:

• Also here I'm going to settle next turn. These new cities will be a drain to my economy, but I hope they pay off long-term..
  
• Defenders, settler, worker and missionary are in place to provide a relatively quick and safe start.
  
• Red arrows show example movements for my two gallyes that will guard Azza's borders. Unless he gets pissed off and closes borders They allow me to see early if he produces or brings ships or military in to area. (The second galley is the one that is currently in transport duty)
  

Here is the rest of the border between me and Azza:

• I will settle the tile marked with C in ~5 turns
  
• I have two workers that start roading and then chopping jungle next turn.
  
• My scout takes care of sentry role in the area.
  

I've been considering whether I should snipe Azza's city of Inshalla. I have a spear in "Divine Volley" and also galley in the area. With my circumnav I could attack amphibitious completely from the dark.. If this were a duel. I would surely do it. However, if Azza would get pissed off and start a game-long revenge campaign that might cost me this game...

The final pic shows an island that I will kind of block from Azza as I settle that Pig+Clam city. It is not amazing, but should provide room for ~2 extra cities a bit later. It is failrly sure that this island can be reached only from the south pre-Astronomy, so these could be almost safe backline cities despite their distance from the capital:

Northern/Eastern Areas - Sareln&Hydra front

So here is my border with Sareln:

• Again I have a galley there working as a sentry. Currently Sareln has 2 preats and an axe in the area. I will react if the situation changes.
  
• The island east of Drop Shot will probably remain Sareln's. It does not have immediate food resources and would be possibly difficult to defend. Probably..
  
• However, Drop Shot "secures" me a nice Corn+Crabs(not the one in the pic)-spot that I will soon settle.
  

The area in the north has several nice sites that are more in the Hydra's area of influence than mine. However if he is too slow and I can provide enough military+worker/work boat support, I could eventually settle e.g. that beatiful fish-crabs-iron spot...

Overall State of the game:

Let's start here with my favorite graph:

• Me and Sareln are the clear leaders in the tech front.
  
• I'm even with Sareln in the city count, but apart from his capital he has only size 1-4 cities and is thus 19 pop points behind me in expansion
  
• Azza has pushed out the most cities, but (or therefore) has not been able to keep up with tech
  
• Viqsi is in a similar tech position with Azza, but is a bit behind in expansion. Bigger but fewer cities..
  
• Hydra is falling more and more behind both in expansion and tech despite not building any military.
  

Beaker ranking
My estimation of accumulated beakers during the first 100 turns. Includes my assumptions of everyone's techs. I've also estimated the beakers that everyone has sitting in unfinished techs and converted cash reserves into beakers with the rate of 1 -> 1.3
1. Fintourist 6050 beakers
2. Sareln 5300 beakers
3. Azza 3550 beakers
4. Viqsi 3550 beakers
5. Hydra 3050 beakers
My exact tech guesses are visible here:


Here is the current allocation of in-game score points:

There's not too much to say about this. Sareln gets a boost from his wonders, I have a bunch of land points in my score.

Here are the EOT100 Demos:

• Sareln is researching CS and leading in GNP. If I remember correctly my break-even rate is ~260 and if I turn research on its ~300.
  
• Azza and Viqsi are leading in MFG, I'm (as always) quite close to average.
  
• Despite whipping 5 pop points away during the last 2 turns I still have the lead in food. Azza is trailing.
  
• Everyone except Hydra has roughly 120-135 soldier points.
  
• Sareln's GLH is visible in the last row..
  

Top 5 city screen has both positive and negative insights:

It is kind of sad that Sareln's size 10 capital is ranked higher than mine size 12 city. It's that damn riverside plains hill gold tile (+culture from Oracle) that causes the difference.. However, it's of course nice to have the biggest city. ...And yeah, Sareln has couple of wonders and is building more...

Opponent ranking
1. Sareln

• Sareln is the only one keeping up with tech. He has a fair chance to catch me as he starts with MoM-powered GAs and expands further with the help of simply amazing GLH. When he finishes Hanging Gardens he will also catch significantly in the expansion. Cheap granaries & workers will also help with that. Cheap forges that he already has in place are also a big deal in case I will have to attack him.
  

2. Azza

• Azza is the opponent with the most population, which can be converted into units or whatever he wants. I think it's very unfortunate that he is the neighbor that I share most of my border with. FIN-trait enables him to build a solid economy when he starts going more vertical.
  

3. Viqsi

• Viqsi is simply put 1 step behind in both expansion and tech. Not too far away at all, but something must happen if she wants to beat Sareln, Azza and me.
  

4. Hydra

• No offense, but if Viqsi is one step behind, Hydra is two steps behind. No military, least beakers, least cities. Of course anything can happen and Hydra will definitely remain as a relevant player in the game, but currently I would not bet my money on him.
  

Overall I think me and Sareln are leading economically. However if we start warring against each other, Azza, Viqsi and also Hydra will catch up quickly. Moreover, we are both still vulnerable and especially Azza can cause me a lot of damage. I'm sure Viqsi could also cause headache to Sareln if she would launch a concentrated attack.

City Screens & comments:
This is the chance to point out how I have screwed with my city/tile management!

Ace
Bureaucracy capital with Academy in place Ace contributes to the empire now by building a worker and continues then growth while producing a forge (I guess).


Roland Garros
After producing the GS for capital, RG is back on growth track. It will soon whip this missionary to completion so that it can arrive in time to the jungle site in the south. Hmm.. I guess I should have double whipped that missionary, and put my hammers meanwhile elsewhere, but now it's too late.


Chip 'n' Charge
This simply is a great city. It could definitely use also a library, but it has been too busy producing settlers/military for my little empire. At size 8 I will again whip a settler out here. I'll spread Hinduism here in couple of turns so that I can start building infra.


Divine Volley
This city could use more food, but I had to settle it early-ish for the copper. Now it just double-whipped a worker and will overflow into missionary for Chip 'n' Charge.


Three To A Can
...is a highly useful Fishing Village, which just triple-whipped a settler. It does not need much worker attention as it can grow on coastal tiles, which is extremely useful. If I ever get stone, Moai could be nice here.


Wimbledon
Here is my first island city that will whip my first trireme so that I'm a bit safer against Sareln. Btw, I'm working that forest tile on purpose. I need that hammer so that I'll complete a work boat here in time with the help of overflow.


Come on Tim!
CoT will provide the trireme for my western waters. Again, if I don't get worker support here in time the city can work coastal tiles as it grows. I would love to get Hinduism here too, if not, the city will produce units, boats or maybe workers.


Soft Hands
When I first saw this site, I though "what a great island city". Now I remember how useless fur-tiles are. This city will suffer from low growth, but eventually it can produce couple of units for the empire and pay its own maintenance costs..


Drop Shot
DS will whip a Granary next turn. Thanks to two food tiles this city will be quite nice later and can whip its own defenders as it is my border city towards Sareln.


Overall my plan for my cities (apart from building the necessary workers/settlers/military/granaries/lighthouses) is: Spread Hinduism into them so that they can whip forges with 25 % bonus. Whip rest of the infra with 50 % bonus. Kind of straightforward.. It does not match Sareln's production bonuses, but at least that way I'm probably getting most out of my situation.

Graphs & Comments:

GNP:
This shows the reason why me and Sareln are ahead. In the beginning Sareln was able to compensate my financial cottages with that Gold tile, now it's the GLH that's keeping him close.


MFG:
My Golden Age is visible here. I assume that Sareln's forges aren't.


Food:



Power:
Everyone else has ~7-9 military units that are not warriors. Hydra has only one.


Culture:
Sareln has Wonders and Buddhism, I have Stonehenge and Hinduism, Viqsi is CRE and Hydra has Judaism.

Aaand that's all. I truly put some effort into this. This will quite likely be the most comprehensive update that I'll ever create. I hope that my opponents will appreciate this afterwards. Dear lurkers, please let me know if you actually managed to read most of this!

[Old Harry]

Nice report, but I want to know your tech path, which wonders you want and how long before you go to war?

[Fintourist]

Nice report, but I want to know your tech path,

Sure! I'm still a bit undecided, but I believe this will be the baseline for my research:
Step 1:
Paper -> Education -> Gunpowder
Step 2:
Meditation -> Philosophy -> Liberalism

Logic:
Gunpowder through Education enables Janissaries, which are really tough to crack before Rifling or Grenadiers and this route also brings me closer to Liberalism, which of course would be valuable to win on its own.

Complications:
Completing step 1 requires 4700 beakers. Assuming the standard 20 % research bonus I'm currently creating ~210 actual beakers per turn at break-even rate. So if my economy stagnates, This route will take approximately 25 turns. Of course, my tech rate will increase continously, but the improvement will be slower because I will be adding new cities that at the moment cost quite much and thus harm the economy in the short-term.

So, can I survive 25 turns with only ancient military techs? Maybe. If I feel threatened I have to tech Machinery for maces somewhere between. Machinery will be only a 2-3 turn tech assuming I have gold reserves, which I plan to keep.

Alternatives:
Machinery -> Feudalism -> Guilds -> Gunpowder
This path leads to Gunpowder exactly as fast as my step 1 route. It enables Maces, Xbows, Longbows and Knights. If I would want to attack somebody this would be the fastest tech route to do it, but otherwise there are not that many benefits for me.

Aesthetics -> Literature and/or Drama -> Music
A free GA is nice and this route only costs ~1500 beakers. However it's still, well, 1500 beakers and I cannot really use any of the other stuff there yet. Parthenon&NE would be nice, but I don't really have a specialist city that also would have the production to spare for NE yet. TGL is quite expensive without multipliers. If nobody has not gone that route and I feel that I'm guaranteed to win Liberalism, I could go there after Gunpowder, because Drama also gives known-tech bonus for Philosophy..

Compass, Construction and later Optics & Engineering have their uses too, but I feel that it is not just yet time for them. I will probably delay Astronomy still just a bit, because it obsoletes Henge. However if my opponents go there I won't have a choice.

which wonders you want

None.. Well, almost none. I would love to have MoM or Hanging Gardens, but they will be off the table before I can get the necessary production in place. I don't really regret the decision that I did not go for these wonders earlier, because I really needed every hammer for my early expansion. I consider building Taj partly because it might be useful for me too and partly to deny it from Sareln. Assuming he completes the MoM as expected. Many good wonders such as Statue of Liberty are nerfed in this map because they benefit only cities in the same continent and therefore I won't probably build them. However, later in the game Kremlin, CR and Pentagon could be attractive, but that's still a long way..

and how long before you go to war?

1. Theoretically as soon as I run out of peaceful expansion room and have a tech advantage. If I feel comfortable with my other neighbors, I could maybe take island cities from Hydra with Janissaries. However it is completely possible that I use Janissaries for securing my borders and try to be the first one to Rifles/Cavs and take Azza out before he can build Redcoats. At this point it's still a daydream..

2. If I see somebody running away with the game I will make a move. I won't play here for a second place! With circumnavigation I will surely have some tactical options, which can help in ruining someone's day.

3. If my neighbors simply neglect their defenses and I feel strong enough that their revenge won't hurt me too much. Especially if Hydra keeps neglecting his military and Azza guards his border cities with chariots. Janissaries are not really ment for offensive units, but they should kill every ancient, classical and medieval units at ease... ...except longbows..

And about your original question... I think I will inititate a war earliest in ~30-40 turns, but if I feel my economy is competitive and benefits more from waiting, it can still take a while.. Let's see what my opponents do.