[Mjmd #52 no players] Working on the Homestead

[El Grillo]

I believe that should work, though I might be missing something in the overflow rounding because I've never calculated things like this for multi-tech overflow chains.

[Mjmd]

Bueller? To be fair I gave you guys like an hour. Anyways someone answer this tomorrow please!. I went ahead and played that turn as I outlined. My math worked for remaining on education sooooo I think I'm right!?!?! If I am then I may only need to build research this turn and go back to normal builds next turn (didn't play much of it other than to check tech (nothing)). It is possible he is just B-lining rifles and skipping lib.......

Anyways, decided to finally do an open borders deal with Charriu even though I have nothing over there to scout him atm. Hoping he focuses more of his forces against Jowy and I can figure out a way to signal him that Jowy is close to rifles and he needs to attack.... El Grillo any ideas? My eastern mobile stack of 4 knights just left for the west so a bit of a gamble. But considering I've been supplying the iron for his army and letting that silver city live, and if he attacks me Jowy can stab him...... It should be safe.

Edit: thanks El Grillo. Anyone else see math issues? I'll set up a spreadsheet or something to figure out if I need additional research builds after this turn. I was going to start finally simming PB54 opening, but math.......

[Commodore]

Math looks good to me. Overflow is divided and then multiplied again, but fractions are maintained.

[Mjmd]

Ok ok ok, so overflow from Philosophy is divided by 1.45 and the multiplied by 1.2 for education for instance? I'm assuming fractions are just the .xx rounding junk.

Hm hm hm. That would mean it doesn't make sense to fully pump this turn for philosophy as I'm not getting extra for overflow purposes. So instead of going 800 (last turn), 900 this turn, 700, whatever I need, I should just keep 800 ish as it makes sense production wise. Makes sense you can't abuse it the way I wanted to.

Thank you. Now I won't waste a production turn in some key cities!

[Mjmd]

Sooo I actually think I shouldn't have done 800 even as I dont believe Jowy teched anything. Didnt check this turn, but I think race is won. I'll have to decide on lib in 2 or 3 turns. I've already sunk in a couple of turns and free speech plus printing press 1 turn earlier could easily mean rifles 1 turn earlier.

Pin has had a lot of posts..... ominous, but his cats are off bombarding SD and i actually have enough hitters assuming my spys can find him I should be fine defensively. My gut iss that he won't declare and is more worried about me declaring. I think I'm fine just inching towards rifles. Plus if I declare would stop some resource trades to SD.

Mr Cairo moved his slow moves, will know more this turn once I've looked around.

[Mjmd]

I lied Mr Cairo just moved his stack into his city on that border and I missed it.

At 792 beakers this turn with 4 cities producing research. I also moved some new cottages onto coast just for a couple turns. Saves me a good city working research / couple of bad ones. Settled 20th city last turn. City maintenance is a killer atm.

Ok, so assuming I can play before Pin next turn do I declare war in two? (we actually played at same time today).
Advantages:
1) I get to snipe 3 workers and kill a knight (spy will let me know if its free or not that turn)
2) A lot of his army is still off in SD land.
3) can probably raze at least 1 city even in worst case
Disadvantages:
1) His units are better promoted.
2) Trades with SD get cancelled leaving him with no stone or Iron
3) I would feel compelled to build more units when I want to keep producing some amount of infrastructure (courthouses have been delayed in prod cities while building a relevant military, could get a rd of those in before rifles??)
4) Fighting on even tech footing
5) Obviously bad if he lands a good victory like he did in the 1st war. Mind prob still a good exchange putting him down 3 cities and me up 1.

Next question for El Grillo: Do I switch to Free Speech in two turns / Free Religion? I think maybe on Free Speech and no on Free Religion especially if I end up doing a round of infrastructure.
Currently only have 11 towns for Free Speech but those are the old east core cities with most of relevant buildings in place. Still plan on taking Printing Press and going to rifles. Don't worry about Taj, it will still be there. Plus I have a whole plan for a 3rd golden age. I shouldn't be out of one longer than 10-15 turns unless some bad luck occurs.

Edit: SD lost his Capital this turn. Seems to be losing about a city a turn now.

[El Grillo]

I'd normally be a big advocate for Nationhood in that civic column at this point in the game, but maybe something for the turns before you tech Nationalism... Free Speech is a lot less good without a whole bunch of towns and ideally the culture mattering somehow. The Bureaucracy hammers are probably better? I dunno.

I'd say keep some pressure on pindicator, keep him whipping and keep superdeath alive longer to continue inflicting war weariness. Cutting his Iron (do you know that he has no other sources?) would be bad, but maybe Longbows behind Castles are still good enough. If you can do some damage and then withdraw and keep him from landing a clean first hit with collateral, there's not much he can do to hurt you. Your use of Spies in this way has been great.

I'll trust you on the tech order, Rifles and drafting (and Engineering soon) will do a lot to mitigate the risk of a stab.

[Mjmd]

Nerf to drafting is definitely a factor. Culture matters a small amount in Salmon. I'm actually going to lose that farm this turn. I whipped in a theater but working a scientist is important for the next 2 turns (at least this one until I get final math). Extra exp is probably better.

It is his only iron and stone. Which means no pikes. I'll post some spy screenshots next turn, but NW won't be in best position.

Rifles to start pushing. I see this as a racing game between Jowy and me where I have to fight through Pin and he has to go through AT and Charriu (who to be fair put up a hell of a fight earlier, but rifles are rifles). Also who can integrate ect ect.

[Mjmd]

Big news is that Charriu did not need me to tell him about Jowy going to rifles. He sniffed it out on his own and declared war last turn!!!! Sent me a silver for gold trade. I sent back open borders and just gifting him a fish. He has my full blessing. If he left his cities empty I would not take them atm.

I don't think I'm declaring; sorry lurkers! SD is already past the point of saving. I hope he can hold an island city or something. Pin's war wariness plus whip unhappy has to be painful.
SD front. The notes around mid city are from right after he took. rough guess is he sent half his knights back to defend. 

Pin front. If I had engineering I would have some descent options, but as is, I could just take some workers and he would have response time. SW is suspiciously empty; again I suspect 8-9 knights are somewhere. I could raze that tundra city I guess, but eh. My eastern 4 knights I moved a turn late, so I would only have 4 knights within range NW. SW has 7 knights. So total I am up 15 knights to maybe 10 knights if I had consolidated, but of course he can whip in longbows ect plus has better upgrades. Also notice his walls and longbow on that island. Kind of kicking myself for not making that a priority last war, but I was super low on land units at the time. I'm building some infrastructure I think. Courthouses have been on delay way too long.

Jowy is indeed going straight to rifles. It is interesting. If I hadn't been paying attention (50/50 shot) he could have beaten me to lib. I did decide to 1 turn it this turn fyi. Follow Jowy up the rifle path now. BTW Salmon lost its farm, but next turn gets to work double artist to take it back pretty fast; then whip in that university at some pt. Charriu is first to optics, but Pin and his last place GNP haven't yet. If SD doesn't reinforce it, he will get GLH this turn. 

BTW I don't think I've shared my plan for a 3rd golden age so here is a rough outline:
Next turn the grocer in Pork chops will be 2 pop whipped. I can then work 4 merchants. I've been delaying this due to lib timing.
Evaporator can then work whatever specialists are opposite of what popped from Porkchops at least through end of the golden age. Still hoping for artist.
Pancakes - reason I want merchant from Pork chops is then I can work scientists here after Evaporator pops its GP. It is finishing national epic next turn. 
Haven't done exact math on how long that will all take and obviously by waiting for the people to pop before working extra specialists I'm losing a bit of time, but playing it safer. Pancakes will have a very small % chance to pop a great artist thanks to the epic, but that as the best place for the epic both in terms of raw production of GP pts and also best place to get a different type of person. I can always build a market at Pancakes especially if Pork chops gets a scientist. Its not the worst place for a market anymore.

[El Grillo]

If you're not going to fight pindicator immediately (and I support that decision in light of superdeath's total collapse), would you consider upping the priority on Nationalism/Taj? I think it just leaves so much on the table if you delay it and someone else manages to snag it with a surprise Great Engineer or something.