[Spoilers] rho21 follows the works of Homer... D'OH!

[rho21]

Thanks, CMF.

Turn 142

Score tracking
Actually nothing this turn. In particular, the Aztecs have not spent their pile of gold.

Arctic theatre
As I suspected they might, the Aztec ships are sailing on past Perseus, heading for Geneva. That means my crossbows are mostly out of range to attack this turn, though one can do so if it seems sensible.

So, before I do anything else, the apostle is expended to grab Defender of the Faith. That means my unpromoted crossbow can attack at 55 v 45 against a frigate, dealing 35 to 54 damage. It would be the same odds for return fire, so it's extremely unlikely to die in response. I figure getting the damage in is going to be worthwhile. If they stop to return fire they will be vulnerable to field cannon attack next turn, and furthermore will take much longer to defeat Geneva.
More likely they will accept the damage and go on to take Geneva. I simply can't get forces up there quickly enough to defend the city (especially as field cannons aren't assisted by my general so are slow), but there's an excellent chance I can stop most of the Aztec ships leaving.

Losing Geneva would be fairly painful. The trade routes aren't a problem, they can go to Frikandel for similar value. But I would certainly notice the loss of approximately 14412/turn (from the envoy bonuses, Pericles' unique ability and Merchant Confederation).

Western theatre
Nothing has moved near Xenocrates.

Housekeeping
Ballistics and Mercantilism are complete. Research now goes to Mass Production (1 turn) and Diplomatic Service (3 turns).

So, first up I need a government. Newly unlocked are Logistics (+1 move when starting in friendly territory) and Triangular Trade (41 from trade routes).

Here are the currently interesting policies:
Gold:

• Conscription: 22/turn.
  
• Triangular Trade: 287/turn.
  
• Merchant Confederation: 12/turn. This will go away if Geneva falls, with nothing worth filling the diplomatic slot with until the late Modern era. In suppose I could build a spy and use the policy for those.
  

Production:

• Press Gangs: I could really use some ships, though there are only 2 cities that can build them.
  
• Feudal Contract: I have one musket in production still.
  
• Manoeuvre: not quite yet, my second horses will be connected in 2 turns.
  
• Colonization: still 46 to go on Euclid's settler. Dropping this policy will cost a turn.
  

Science and culture:

• Natural Philosophy: 13/turn
  
• Meritocracy: 13/turn
  
• Aesthetics: 9/turn
  
• Trade Confederation: 77/turn
  

Utility:

• Professional Army: quite a short government, so best time for it.
  
• Serfdom: good time for this too. Both current builders will be done within 3 turns.
  
• Logistics: well worth it if it will let the field cannons move fast enough to save Geneva. Will it apply to units this turn too? If so, I might get two shots off at a frigate.
  
• Bastions: no sign of Aztec units getting in range of my defences just yet.
  
• Retainers: not right now, but my amenities situation is bad enough that it might be worth considering building scouts to garrison cities just for the amenities.
  

I think I'll go with: Professional Army, Logistics, Merchant Confederation, Trade Confederation, Meritocracy, Triangular Trade and Serfdom. So that's all 3 of the utility policies I was considering, resulting in a loss of 62/turn, though goes up a little. The economic policies can return soon though, and it's not long until some are replaced by better versions.

Arctic theatre continued
Bad news: Logistics does not apply on this turn, as I suspected (units now say 2/3 moves, for example).
Good news: I have advanced to the Industrial era with Ballistics, so my roads are finally cheaper to move on and my crossbows can move three spaces and still attack.
So that means my twice-promoted crossbow will be able to attack at 62v45 and do 47 to 71 damage (average 59). I could then get another attack with an unpromoted crossbow, but it will be outside borders so would be even odds (before factoring in damage from the previous attack), and so unlikely to finish off the frigate. I suppose I could pay 145 to bring the (rubbish tundra) tile into borders. And if I roll poorly, I can also sacrifice my galley for the killing blow.
Maybe worth both of these if it results in the death of a frigate. Definitely well worth it if that causes the attack on Geneva to be aborted or delayed.

Upgrades
So let's look at what can be upgraded.
The arctic theatre has 5 crossbows (115 to upgrade); 2 are planning to attack this turn. Two of the others are probably too far back to be worth upgrading as a priority. It also has a galley (135 to upgrade), but that might be needed for combat.
The western theatre has 3 crossbows and an archer (205 to upgrade).
The south has a chariot (90 to upgrade), but I can't get it into Kongolese borders (to be able to upgrade) for 2 turns.
The east has an archer and a warrior (155 to upgrade).

I have 801 on hand.

So I think the plan has to be to launch the attacks in the north (possibly buying the tile in the process), then upgrade unused units in the arctic theatre, then units near Xenocrates.

Arctic theatre again
So here goes...

51 damage from the first attack, well below average. The second attack will be at 45v40 without the tile purchase, for 29 to 44 damage (average 37). With the tile purchase it would go to 55v40, for 43 to 66 damage (average 55). This makes it pretty good odds of a kill, and I'd prefer to preserve (and upgrade) my galley if possible.

Second attack then:

49 damage dealt, frigate sunk. I love it when obsessive planning comes together.

Will the Aztecs retreat now, or press the attack?

Really upgrades this time
First up the galley (now safely back in Perseus) becomes a caravel. 521 left.
Then a crossbow becomes a field cannon 1E of Perseus, as does the crossbow 1SE of Pythagoras (built recently in Aristaeus). Scorched Earth boosted, 291 left.
Finally, the double-promoted crossbow at Xenocrates also becomes a field cannon. I may be able to use it to snipe a catapult next turn. I'm going to save the remaining 176 for the moment for contingencies. Still have 3 turns to decide what else to upgrade.

And back to housekeeping
Time to found a city (wow, this is a big turn) at C12, which will be called Meton. It needs border expansions most urgently, so gets going on a monument.

Xenocrates starts work on its Commercial Hub (since the musket is no longer boosted). Lastly, Pythagoras has grown to size 9 and is now working an unimproved plains tile. In a few turns I'll be able to swap tiles around a bit and borrow a mine from Euclid. For now though, I'm going to hire a scientist specialist.

[Garath]

Great plan, great report! Losing the Frigate, with quick-moving crossbows chasing them? I don't think the Aztecs are even going to get Geneva down, let alone get out again if they try.

Can the Aztecs see any of the field cannons, or did you manage to hide them enough that you might bait them into staying too close to danger?

[rho21]

Yeah, the first part of that report was definitely pessimistic about my chances of defending Geneva. Once I had a way to destroy the frigate it all seemed much more likely. There's still a chance they'll be able to raze Geneva, but my ranged units will make them pay dearly if they try - the caravel can block their escape route. Remember they can still outpace me for now though, and my crossbows are *much* less effective outside borders.

But based on the abortive knight charge of 30 turns ago, I'm guessing they'll turn tail. Hopefully I'll be able to find the production to set up a reasonable defence in case they return. It's really tricky to judge how much that is. I can't afford to spend too much on ships and lose the fight on land, equally it's clear I can't just hand control of the seas to the Aztecs.

One of the field cannons is in view now. There was no good way to avoid this and also give it a chance of having something to shoot at next turn.

[rho21]

Turn 143

Score tracking
The Aztecs finished a tech, grew a pop, and spent about 940, their income dropping by 7/turn. At Near Wild Heaven, I can see they upgraded two swords into muskets and 2 catapults into bombards. Those latter were almost certainly for the boost to Siege Tactics, which implies their industrial era tech must be Ballistics.
Rumour says they also cleared a barbarian camp using a horseman.

Arctic theatre
My guess was wrong, the Aztec attack on Geneva continues. The siege tower has been very effective (obviously, how else would caravels attack a city? ), allowing the caravels to redline the city even though the frigate was unable to remove the walls (fortification 18/50, city 79/200).

I need to kill a caravel this turn to have any chance of Geneva surviving. However Geneva's builder is sat right in the way (and I can't share a tile with it), so my ranged units can attack none of the ships this turn. Stupid combat AI. At least it correctly moved a sword into the city; shame its crossbows were far too far away to be relevant.

I can attack the frigate with my caravel (50v47) if I want, but that's it. I think that's worthwhile: I doubt they can both sink the caravel and raze Geneva, and I'm pretty sure they'll do the latter rather than risk my guns preventing it. The attack does 30 damage to the frigate, suffering 28 to my caravel. I take the opportunity to upgrade one more crossbow to a field cannon.

Western theatre
As mentioned, the units I can see by Near Wild Heaven have been upgraded. So much for my plan to snipe a catapult (and potentially prevent the boost for siege tactics). My field cannon might still snipe a bombard (77-114 damage) but it isn't certain, and I could lose the unit on the counter.

Housekeeping
Mass Production complete. I start Square Rigging for now, which is due in 6 unboosted. I'll delay it if it looks as though I might get a musket kill any time soon but that's seeming unlikely right now.

It appears that the civic overflow has been lost, based on the displayed time. *sigh* What is up with overflows in this game?

At the end of the turn I hear the sound of a barbarian camp spawning. Perhaps a chance to get a musket kill.

Sorry, no screenshots right now as I'm in a rush.

[Cornflakes]

Thanks for the great reporting! I'm curious how you are staying competitive in science and culture even though you only have about 2/3 the cities/pop of Aztec. Can you do a breakdown of where all your and yields are coming from? (is there a report somewhere that captures this info?)

[rho21]

Great question. There's no specific report that covers it as it's sort of accreted over time. I don't have either the save or my tracking spreadsheet to hand right now, but I'll do what I can to break it down.

For , the most important thing by far has been my three 4-adjacency campus locations (one of them is now +5 thanks to 2 adjacent districts). It's rare to see even one of these most games. I was definitely behind before I brought them online, with them and the adjacency doubling policy I got back into contention.

For , I have 4 acroplises and 1 amphitheatre built, for a total of 9, the Aztecs have only just finished their first theatre square. This hasn't brought me the desired great works though, because Kongo is in the game. I hadn't realised early on quite how badly Kongo's power counteracts Greece's cheap culture. I've ended up with monuments pretty much everywhere and running a number of cultural policies.

Overall though, while I'm ahead on and income right now (well, not once Geneva falls!), I suspect I'm well behind on total produced. I've been keeping up partly by landing every single possible boost up to the end of the medieval period. I suspect the Aztecs haven't had it as good there.

Let's have a go off the top of my head at a breakdown of the 119.7 I was producing on T140:

• Population (65): 45.5
  
• Palace: 2
  
• Campus adjacency: 13
  
• Natural Philosophy: 13
  
• Campus buildings: 18
  
• Isaac Newton: 6
  
• Geneva envoys: 14
  
• Trade routes: 9
  
• Iron tiles: 2
  

That comes to 122.5, I suspect the difference comes from unhappiness which I can't determine without the save. I also wouldn't have a hope of breaking down culture without looking at the save.

[Garath]

Man, there is no way that's how battering rams should work with ships. What the heck?

[rho21]

Geneva's alive!

[rho21]

Turn 144

Score tracking
The Aztecs have finished a civic and built a harbour. Looks as though they've also completed a merchant project for 35 more great merchant points.
Kongo have completed Education and built an Mbanza in Kroket. Finally they get a bonus apostle, hopefully they'll get themselves converted shortly.

Arctic Theatre
Man, the Aztecs have had the worst military timing luck this game. Twice an attack has run straight into my upgrades. And now, the last remaining city-state foils them as well! What appears to have happened is that Geneva upgraded the sword sitting in its city centre to a musket, immediately jumping defensive strength to 75, near invulnerability against the caravel attacks. It also shot a caravel, severely red-lining it.
The Aztecs, seeing they had lost their chance, also discovered they were blocked in by my caravel. Their only hope of gain was to use all three attacks to kill my caravel, losing their red-lined caravel in the process. This does get them one other tangible benefit: I can't stop the siege tower escaping to fight another day.

So I'm left looking at this:

Two easy kills (carefully using crossbows first to get two attacks on each ship, for bonus XP), and the Aztec adventure ends with them losing 2 caravels and 2 frigates in exchange for 1 caravel.

Even had I known Geneva was going to defend itself, I still would have put the caravel there (though I might not have launched the attack). Otherwise the Aztec ships would mostly have escaped.

Western Theatre
Over on the western ridge, my scouting knight spots an Aztec knight. It has +6 support bonus, so the Aztecs are there in force behind the ridge. No great general bonus though.

I transfer Hannibal down to Menaechmus in case defence is needed here shortly

There's also a bit of shuffling of bombards at Near Wild Heaven. Perhaps they're going to move forwards next turn. If so, Hannibal can be down here very speedily. They might also be waiting for a general. If they get a bonus move, can they move and attack? If so, they might be a danger to the encampment.

Barbarian Watch
The new barbarian camp is in the far NE. Pretty much ideal. I will upgrade the warrior in Bryson into a musket and look to kill a barbarian with it to get the boost for Square Rigging. I'm 1 short of the upgrade this turn.

Housekeeping
The builder at Meton pasturises the horses; I can now build horsemen everywhere.

Menaechmus has finished a builder. Really not sure what to work on next here. It will be building horsemen soon, but I can't put the bonus policy in for a couple of turns. Eh, I'll get started on a horseman anyway.

[rho21]

Turn 145

Score tracking
Kongo gained a pop.

Arctic theatre
Time to run some units back south, and work out how much needs to be left in the vicinity of Geneva. Probably just one or two field cannons; I don't want them too far out of position should an attack materialise further south.

Western theatre
Mentioning which, the Aztecs are probing. They have a builder on the jungle in the borders of Near Wild Heaven, presumably planning to chop it to improve the approach to my encampment. They've also put a field cannon on the jungle NE of that one.
Strange move, I'm going to have no trouble killing it, between the encampment and various nearby ranged units. No movement further north, so I go ahead and do so. I choose the safest means of killing it, avoiding leaving a unit on the wheat where it might be attacked over the river.
So that starts off with the encampment attacking at 60v53, doing 45 damage (pretty close to maximum). The crossbow won't get the kill, so it swaps places with the field cannon, which has no trouble at all (82v49).

Barbarian watch
Upgraded the warrior to a musket for 155. That's my third, so Replaceable Parts is boosted. The scout from the new camp has found Bryson, so we can expect some units for the musket to kill. I moved the archer up from Dinostratus, in case it needs some support.

Housekeeping
Square rigging close to half done, switched to military science. It will be nice to have cavalry one turn away in case of emergencies, though I don't plan to actually discover the tech for some time.

Builder done at Pythagoras, horseman started, for want of anything more urgent.
Settler complete at Euclid, it gets started on a bank, due in 14.
Granary complete at Perseus, it stars on its harbour. 18 turns though, so will probably chop as much as possible through a ship, once the booster policy is in place.