Uncommonly Good: A Story of Elves

[Mardoc]

Ah, MBTM, that really helps put things in perspective. In particular, we're going to have to decide on Calendar/AH soon; I don't think their benefits will be worth it if we put them late in the tech plan, but there's a good chance of them paying for themselves if they come early. Looking at the numbers, if we want to insert them, it changes the bpt required to get to Priests by T90 from 33 to 39, basically 3 bpt/tech.

I think Calendar is likely to be worthwhile - improving the cotton is itself worth 3 commerce/turn, plus allowing us to work an extra cottage in each of our cities.

Animal Husbandry is harder to judge, because its benefits will come in the form of faster growth and more workers, which is only indirectly commerce. I'll leave that judgment call to someone else.

The only other possibility worth considering - MBTM, I'd appreciate some numbers on this - is how expensive in terms of required commerce it would be to add in Crafting/Mining and a deal with Nicolae for clearing the jungle on our gold. A gold mine would add a good 9 commerce/turn, which is huge - but only if crafting/mining doesn't overshadow it.

Gaspar, I think I have a similar duty to MBTM - I'm not convinced two workers is enough before city3. We need to be putting up cottages pronto at home, to make our tech plan, possibly improving cotton, improving 8 tiles at the Remnants site, and then city3 also needs cottages etc. And we quickly need to get those cottages growing, too. We really don't want to build our workers from the Remnants city, not when it's got both nice tiles to work and a very small food surplus. That said, I do agree on delaying the main worker production push until after Education comes in; they won't do us much of anything except maybe adding to unit cost until we can be spamming cottages.

Also, I've started work on another episodic post, but it requires some worldbuilder simulation, so it may be a few days before you see the results :neenernee

[Man Behind the Mask]

Crafting is another pretty cheap tech, only needing 114 beakers. It sadly gets us very little until we can then reach mining, which is a bit steeper at 159. We’d get known tech discounts on them as well (assuming that’s where Nicolae has gone). Mining let’s us find copper and also discounts Archery, so there are benefits beyond our jungle-choked tile. Payback time on an additional 9bpt will be close to 30 turns. We’d need crafting for the marble at some point as well, though, but that’s yet another tech!

The thing that these numbers really bring home is just how expensive Hunting and Priesthood are in comparison to other options. If we want to get all the way there, then I’m certain we can’t pick up everything along the way.

One thing I’m really unsure about is Ancient Forest growth. If it’s very rapid, then we need to worry less about Animal Husbandry for food if we can get straight into our religion. This is another thing which really needs some code-diving or testing.

[Mardoc]

One thing I’m really unsure about is Ancient Forest growth. If it’s very rapid, then we need to worry less about Animal Husbandry for food if we can get straight into our religion. This is another thing which really needs some code-diving or testing.

As it happens, I've got the answer for you as a side-effect of my research for my next big post. It's 3%/turn odds for every New Forest to upgrade to a Forest, and 3%/turn odds for every Forest to upgrade to an Ancient Forest if we're in FoL.

So theoretically, we could convert and the next turn have Ancient forests everywhere. Realistically, we're only going to be able to count on them in the long term, not the short term.

[Man Behind the Mask]

Wow! Thanks very much.

"3%" is one of those nebulous concepts. It looks like a pretty low chance. However, if we've got 33 regular forest tiles, i.e. a couple of cities, then the expectation is that one upgrades every turn. To me, that feels quite promising if you look at it from that angle.

Difficult choices.

[Azoth]

The way I see it, we'll be hard pressed to reach Priesthood and build a sizable number of Priests by T100. (Upgrading Priests from Disciples is expensive and will require us to spend several turns - turns we might not have - in 100% gold, delaying the rest of our research. I wouldn't recommend it: with our hammer-heavy start, we should build them outright.) We would also be forced to skip quite a few basic economy techs, which I think unwise. We have two other options.

1. Keep to the T100 deadline. Rely on Treants to do the bulk of the fighting, supported by Gilden Silveric, and assorted Hunters and Fawns.

2. Delay the attack to T120 or so. Skip some (but not all) optional techs, get to Priesthood, and build a massive Priest army.

Once we have Hawks+Hunters in the field, we can keep a closer eye on Nicolae: find out both where he plants his second and third cities, and whether Treants could reach them in time; and how much military he builds, and whether we need priests sooner than later. So we don't need to a make a decision now; we should research Hunting next regardless.

Here's something else to consider: Gilden Silveric, like most other Archery units, has a chance to make a defensive strike against any unit that attacks his stack. Drill promotions increase this strike chance. Now I'm not sure where I read this, but it's possible that Drill IV + Blitz would give him 100% chance of a defensive strike, multiple times per turn, making him the ultimate stack defender. Someone should test this as it could be a better promotion path than Combat V + Heroic Attack/Defense.

[Man Behind the Mask]

Sorry, Azoth, but this is one of the few times I'm going to actively disagree. I look forward to learning something when you/somebody else tells me I'm wrong.

The way I see it, we'll be hard pressed to reach Priesthood and build a sizable number of Priests by T100. (Upgrading Priests from Disciples is expensive and will require us to spend several turns - turns we might not have - in 100% gold, delaying the rest of our research. I wouldn't recommend it: with our hammer-heavy start, we should build them outright.) We would also be forced to skip quite a few basic economy techs, which I think unwise.

I agree it will be tight, but I think it is achievable if we make it a focus. If we've got the land of 2 civs, then we can catch up on economy later. One thing I've realised in my comparative analysis is that PBEM3 is on a higher difficulty level, so getting ahead of Nyk's pace may be easier. Sorry for not catching this before.

I also agree that we probably won't/shouldn't have much cash for upgrades.

We have two other options.

1. Keep to the T100 deadline. Rely on Treants to do the bulk of the fighting, supported by Gilden Silveric, and assorted Hunters and Fawns.

2. Delay the attack to T120 or so. Skip some (but not all) optional techs, get to Priesthood, and build a massive Priest army.

These two options are fine in principle, but I'm worried that T100 may not only be our deadline. We have a neighbour more likely to want to war while he still has a comparative advantage, and he may have reached the same conclusion as us about expansion. The implication here is that we may just need to get the best force we can muster at T100 regardless.

Here's something else to consider: Gilden Silveric, like most other Archery units, has a chance to make a defensive strike against any unit that attacks his stack. Drill promotions increase this strike chance. Now I'm not sure where I read this, but it's possible that Drill IV + Blitz would give him 100% chance of a defensive strike, multiple times per turn, making him the ultimate stack defender. Someone should test this as it could be a better promotion path than Combat V + Heroic Attack/Defense.

Again, I can't disagree with the thought, but the assumptions aren't that great. If we are getting hit "multiple times per turn" by Pyre Zombies then we're toast no matter how strong Gilden is. Mobility priests with tiger summons that are also two-move (or can be used as throwaway blockers to stop the real units eating splash damage) should be more effective than archers against our proposed opponent.

It's great to be working these things through nearly 70 turns ahead of time to give Gaspar the best chance of executing when/if the time comes.

[Gaspar]

Really great stuff, guys. I can't stress enough both how helpful these post are and how much more fun it is to play a game like this on a team like this. Rather than comment individually on it all, I'll say that it really does help me back my "master plan" post, and that I'll address everything a bit more there. I do want to stress one thing: I think that T100 is a pretty hard deadline. There's no flipping way Nicolae went Crafting -> Mining -> Bronze Working (which we think he did) without planning on shoving those PZs where the sun don't shine on someone, and given its T30 and we've met nobody else, that someone is extraordinarily likely to be us, not least of which because I shoved a 100 turn NAP down his throat on T8 or something. *I
d* certainly want to kill us in his shoes.

I think we have approximately the time it takes to research Education to make a plan. Obviously the plan can change as time goes on, but we've pretty much no choice but to put one in place and work towards it, due to the pricey nature of the techs we're after.

Turn report to follow.

[Gaspar]

T32:

Score increases: Kyan (5, pop) and Rawkking (11, tech.)

I set the Brawler to finish healing on the forest hill. Decided to save the promotion for the moment, though I'd be very surprised if he didn't take C2. Leaping Lanny heads back towards home. There's really absolutely nothing else to report. 15T to Education still, though that will improve once the EC is done. EC done in 2T, as is the forest farm.

Because I'm contractually obligated to throw a picture of something up, here's the 8 billionth shot of the area surrounding the capital.

[Mardoc]

Because I'm contractually obligated to throw a picture of something up, here's the 8 billionth shot of the area surrounding the capital

Yet another turn where the New Forests didn't upgrade. There's only a 5% chance of all three making it this long unchanged. I'm starting to wonder if there's something about making them in worldbuilder that prevents them from upgrading; maybe we'll have to chop and replant them eventually.

Edit: Also - don't forget eventually to turn on 'avoid growth' in The Chronic. I realize it won't matter while we build settlers and workers, but remember there's no easy way to shrink population in FFH until mid-game.

[Azoth]

I do want to stress one thing: I think that T100 is a pretty hard deadline. There's no flipping way Nicolae went Crafting -> Mining -> Bronze Working (which we think he did) without planning on shoving those PZs where the sun don't shine on someone, and given its T30 and we've met nobody else, that someone is extraordinarily likely to be us, not least of which because I shoved a 100 turn NAP down his throat on T8 or something. *I'd* certainly want to kill us in his shoes.

I think we have approximately the time it takes to research Education to make a plan. Obviously the plan can change as time goes on, but we've pretty much no choice but to put one in place and work towards it, due to the pricey nature of the techs we're after.

Turn report to follow.

Fair points all. What can I say? I'm a builder at heart and it pains me to see us aim for Priesthood before picking up stuff like Crafting and Festivals. I'm also a little bit curious to see how well March of the Trees will work on offense. But if we do rush to Priests, I suppose I'll survive.

Again, I can't disagree with the thought, but the assumptions aren't that great. If we are getting hit "multiple times per turn" by Pyre Zombies then we're toast no matter how strong Gilden is. Mobility priests with tiger summons that are also two-move (or can be used as throwaway blockers to stop the real units eating splash damage) should be more effective than archers against our proposed opponent.

As far as this goes, I agree that Gilden won't make any difference against Pyre Zombies, and neither will plain old Archers. The only counter to Pyre Zombies is to hit them first. However, we might not always be in a position to avoid Zombie counterattacks and, taking the long view, a Drill/Blitz Gilden might be the better choice if I'm right on the mechanics. So all I'm saying is that someone should test it out.