Well, how does t53 strike you?
From a baseline t33 completion of AH, I went Sailing-Masonry; Kettle built Worker, Warrior, Settler while Sailing came in, then a 5t Lighthouse while Masonry researched. Completion coincided with growth to size 6, then worked 18hpt into GLH and added 3 chops.
This is not an optimised run. I might be able to cut a turn off it with careful tweaking of overflow, and the third Settler (which came out of city #2 at size3 with a chop) should have been sent NW, since that's where the Workers were (Worker micro was a disaster for this one, but also basically irrelevant after a point).
On our tech path, we start the Lighthouse as soon as it becomes available, and then ditto the GLH by which time we have built 2 Settlers, 3 Workers, 1WB, and 4 Warriors. With our traits, we have conservatively saved (70h, 20h, 6h, 4h) ~100h over a non-PROD/non-IMP. Coincidentally, that would be the maximum saving for an IND civ building the GLH; but then PROD also gives an extra 2hpt into the Lighthouse and 3hpt into the GLH (due to growth timings).
IND civs are TBS & Haram. Haram has PROD as well, so saves the same as us on the Worker/WB and gets the bonus on the LH/GLH, but Haram is behind on tech having started with Myst and then gone for Meditation. To challenge he would probably need to skip AH and/or BW which seems unlikely. TBS could certainly get it if he went for a similar tech beeline, however he's set himself for an early Pottery for his fast Granaries, and although the extra tech probably doesn't matter (because of the faster build time on the Wonder), the aggregate build bonuses probably add up.
Other competitors could be the other PROD, Fenn/bandit, but they are also likely to want early cottages for FIN, but my top competitor would actually be Borsche. ORG/IMP gives him the Settler bonuses we get (his city#2 planted this turn) and the ORG Lighthouse bonus would outweigh a lot of our other acceleration. Still, I think we'd be in with a pretty decent shot at it if we commit, so I'm going to look to refine the Sim some more and see what it looks like.
Alternatively, if you're not sold on that Wonder, we could go for this one:
From same t33 baseline go: Masonry-Mysticism and build with the full Stone bonus. Again not optimised - particularly the Workers, who run a bit out of useful stuff to do once city#2 and #3 are up and running.
Or maybe just REX:
Here I went Pottery from t33 and then Masonry-Writing. I should roll this on to t53 to directly compare with the GLH, but you can see that city#2 has not put out a Settler, but has been able to work on Granary (city #3 should probably have as well). I'm not quite sold on Pottery next over Masonry though, as it gets a high-yield tile up and running earlier and actually the Worker moves felt smoother being able to get the Stone up and running for City#3 ... it does slow the first couple of cottages though.
This REX version also skipped a revolt to Slavery. Mostly because I forgot, but also because during the two Wonder builds the turn of Anarchy directly affects the completion date - since both are tech-limited before the build starts, while after the start the whip doesn't add anything to the build itself.
Note also that Barbs were deleted so had no effect on the Sim, while we are running a low military presence - so there's a risk. Another is the delay to getting to the Copper. OTOH, I'm willing to bet that Horses show up on one of the 2 plains tiles to the Southeast on the Cap, so planting city#4 for them would be a good option. Of course we'll know before we commit to any route, but with no time to adjust!
Anyway, I'd appreciate your thoughts to help me decide where to focus my efforts. I think that t53 has a legitimate shot at landing GLH, so I'm very tempted to try but I'm also concerned about the delay to getting cottages going. I think the REX version may actually need to slow expansion to reduce costs, so I'm not too concerned about being behind on that score. One thing I'd like to run is the REX going Masonry-Pottery and see if that looks decent - if it does, that would let us delay the SH decision until later to get a better lay of the land.
