[Spoilers]C6PBEM23: Krill sidles yonder, and probably fails

[Krill]

Turn 82 (some screenshots may be from T81)

Lots going on. greenline finished Apprenticeship. First hought: Oh know he wants to rush me. Second thoughts: Why does Whosit have 600 gold? More likely Men At Arms are to defend rather than attack, even though the warriors and archers are arrayed in a defensive posture against me.





Whosit is right in greenlines face. TAD is absolutely isolated. Chev is no where. That means greenline is stuck between managing a defense against Whosit and trying to mess with me, so I am not concerned about managing a MaA rush. I am concerned about being able to react and take advantage of the situation. That means getting military units built and ready with a back up production plan, which focuses my immediate tech goals significantly. TAD is building and probably wins this game because no one can take steps to oppose him given the sheer lack of CS in this game. Chev is probably doing Chev things but I dunno if any of it is going to matter if I'm top power at 235 with nothing of value.

Realistically I need to be able to take Scarborough Fair to have strategic depth, but that would be Whosits first target, so I would need to be ruthless and quick to slice past Venice and hit light light cav, which means Castles and Coursers. Unfortunately, I can't get there without eating the eureka cost, so it's more efficient (and not exactly slower) to head to Apprenticeship myself. I am unlikely to be able to capitalise on any aggression Whosit undertakes at this point.





I decided to ditch Conscription for +2GS points. I figured that this saved me from having to run a project, and if I simply ran the Lilja (gold) project I'd make back more gold from the saved turns than I lost from not having Conscription. This has had a bit of an effect on others:




TAD does not have three Campuses, greenline does. TAD can't have a library as then the numbers would not add up (he does not have devine spark so he is also running the GS card. I will hit 60 points in 5 turns. A campus project takes 4 to complete. I'm going to have to risk it, but if TAD builds a project my tech plans are in ruins. Zheng Heng would be worthless to me (well, not quite, generates around 180 beakers for techs I don't care about compared to the ~640 of Arya). Hypatia would be...inconsequential, I believe.





I have set Irrigation to finish this turn. I know the extra tech will increase the chop value of the marsh, but I'm not quite sure if I can get to size 10 start of turn 84 or if it will have to be T85, but I think if it is delayed I will not need Lilja for that last turn of growth. After that I'll stick with the plan of finishing Currency (1 turn from completion) and heading straight to Apprenticeship. I'll have the last mine down next turn so I know it will be a 7 turn tech without overflow. Good chance it will be 6.




Long finishes a settler end of turn 83/start of T84. The next one should be done in 5 turns, which is very close to aligning with when Defensive Tactics should be completed. I moved the trade route and ran it to MH, and the food is paying off. If I could just find the builder charge and buy that maize tile then I guess it would be able to reach, in a kinder game than this, size 10 around T105.

I suspect that by T90 I will need to be in Oligarchy, running Conscription and at least one production card (Probably Manouvre, Agoge is not worth it, I don't want to build many archers right now). But by then I will know what has happened with the GS and we can figure out just how much worse it can get.

If there are any questions, I'll try to answer them.

[Krill]

FWIW, I've been mulling over the alternative openings, and the more I look at it, the more I think the builder first was not an inherently bad play, it just didn't quite come off because of the lay of the land. And that's fine: not all gambits work. I don't think things went really wrong until around T40 after finding Korea, seeing the resource position and the quick archer upgrade and I lost my head.

I swapped techs a bunch of times, but I did finish AH T45. This gave me a viable third city, and I should have focused on getting that up rather than cramming in an encampment and walls in Long. I was looking at Korea, and not in my own back yard. OTOH, I pushed over to that barb camp and got pushed by a barb horse archer. At the same time I retreated units to the east to cover a defense.

The only way to resolve this was to build more units (couldn't have Agoge and Discipline), chop the settler with colonization not the encampment, and not build the cursed campus at MH. Unfortunately, the Campus was placed much earlier to lock in the cheaper cost, and I will always be salty about that: the right play got punished by the map. At the same time, this would have made it nigh impossible to get the State Workforce inspiration, and it would have gotten me a third city 10 turns faster. Something, but not game breaking.

At the same time, I don't see a truly great fourth city. I don't even see a good fourth city. Mullet is an exercise in tile juggling (but can work with Yongle and a seaport), and everything else can't get to size 4. Which takes me back to the start: I think the starting strategy was OK, but just got run over by the map. Maybe with better scouting I would have settled city 2 in Koreas face but that feels...foolish? And reaching for the jungle area near TAD doesn't do much either. I dunno. I made bad choice, but I don't think good choices would put me in a drastically better position. Just make it...less bad?

[Krill]

Turn 84

Finally, the update I've been waiting for. Finally got MH to size 10, and I've met Chev (OK, I met Chev on T83 but still)




The first city to size 10, along with meeting Chev solves all the era point problems, and I am now guarranteed a Heroic Age, so long as I survive this one. There are a couple of consequences to previous choices made in chasing this, to do with builder charges etc








The barb spear suicided, so I'm now on the home stretch with regards to the Medieval eurekas. Just need to get the GS (3 turns), research IW, build the archer, one more mine, and tech Feudalism. A bit more gold from the camp will come in nicely, because I'm in a bit of a pickle with the civic path for Feud and how quick it's looking.





Defensive Tactics will land in 4 turns. I need 5 for the settler from Long (unless I plan to keep Colonization. Feudalism takes 6 with the inspiration due to overflow and the little growth taking place. 10 turns to make 4 more farms. Oops, I kinda misjudged this.




It will take 400 gold to buy the two inner ring tiles and teh maize for Long, but I do want all these tiles as that gives me the 6 farms and I need the tiles to get Long to size 10 without Lilja. If it saves me 10 turns, that's 200 gold back. If I use Land Surveyors I can knock this down to about 330 gold? And now I'm chugging along nicely making 32gpt (and it will increase again when I swap back to Conscription) means it is achievable to buy the tiles, but I need to build another two builders to make the next mine in 6 turns (it's actually too slow but whatever), and get three of hte farms. I have a 1 charge builder left to improve the maize.




TAD has tons of land. I'm trying to see how far west this goes because I want to get a handle on how quickly he will fill it out. He has realised he can't get his missionaries past me and needs to go Shipbuilding but I doubt he goes that way with his limited science.





This is actually the biggie. Four warriors, just generated a GG, 641 gold saved and a ram. greenline doesn't even have walls, plus there is a trader making the road towards Scarborough Fair. Chev somewhere to the east at 12 bpt and 8 cpt. If greenline doesn't see this coming then he really needs to play more MP.





The worlds biggest city. Long is about 300 food behind. I need to get out two builders (4 and 7 turns from now). The first will do a mine and two farms, the second will get the last farm down for two spare charges. It kind of sucks, but it's necessary, before moving onto military builds (or that harbour and lighthouse to boost the new cities).

All this brings me to the point, what are the next civic cards to a) keep Long and Ponytail on the path to size 10 and b) have sufficient military to deal with Whosit if he does a mass legionaire upgrade? I need Land Surveyors, but I don't need the GS card. I do want Conscription, but I don't want Agoge (I'll go with Feudal Contract once Feudalism is in and build the archer then, IW can be done by that point so I can trigger Arya if I get him). I can't have Manourvre for a horseman build unless I swap out of Classical Republic, but I don't need the housing now, nor the amenity (well, Long gets knocked down to Happy until the honey is improved, and I will have my own spices around the time the deal with TAD runs out). So should I look to swap to Oligarchy now?

I think I need to know just how many builder charges I'm going to need, as I may want to use the guv title on Liang for Ponytail, and Ilkum to prebuild 2 or maybe even 3 builders and then kick them straight out at Feudalism with Serfdom. I can count an easy 17 actions that need to be done urgently, 4 of which I'm already planning the builders for. That suggets Land Surveyors/Ilkum/Charistmatic leader/Conscription afterwards and hold onto the harbour builds. All this can be done before Feudalism, and then with Feudal Contract/Conscription/Serfdom/Whatever I'll build MaA, another archer and see what happens. I'll have to balance Long and MH - MH needs to build the harbour and IZ, Long needs to grow but with the tiles improved does not need Lilja.

[Krill]

T86

Whosit upgraded legions and spent something like 600 gold (still has over 100 left). His power will be visible next turn when greenline logs in. greenline still has no walls or anything stronger than a warrior so his cities are defending at strength 10 through 17 and he is going to get butchered unless he upgrades a warrior to a men at arms but he only has 177 gold (making 15 gpt); I'm at 200 gold making 32gpt so between us we definitely have enough for the unit upgrade.

I'm not going to give him any on principle. The only way I'd even consider it was for Urtin Duu and that is not a legitimate trade. I am going to have to reconsider the city builds to try and take Urtin Duu but I really don't want to speed up greenlines demise.

Whosit is even ready to pillage the turtles that greenline just hooked up yesterday.

[Krill]

Actually: specific request for lurker guidance: If I offered 175 gold for Urtin Duu, which is enough gold for greenline to upgrade a warrior to a man at arms, would that be a legit trade? The rules aren't clear in out right banning city trades, and this would appear legitimate/good faith in terms of the current geopolitical situation.

[Krill]

T87

Whost declared on greenline. Greenline completed a civic, probably defensive Tactics. I made the offer of 175 gold and marble for Urtin Duu (returning the lux, which I already have, but I can't return iron or horse as greenline has the max amount allowed). Whosit also dumped 3 envoys into Zanzibar, taking Suzerainity away and reaching 52bpt. I've swapped to Military Tactics (due in 2, DT still due in 1) for the envoy to keep the extra Amenities away from him; this is a losing battle unless I build a second encampment to complete the quest. Whosit is also Suzerain of Hong Kong, which seriously makes me question the validity of cramming more players onto a map than is usual.

If the lurkers want to chime in on the city buy offer do it soon; I feel pretty comfortable on making the offer as I think it's legit on every level. I do not expect greenline to accept however the principle is worth sorting out.

Depending on what greenline does in the next turn I have a couple of different options of how to play this, but I think it boils down to how I manage the threat from Whosit after he tears through greenline. And Whosit could theoretically (IMO) be stopped even at this point without a city capture, if builders are on the right tiles and he accepts the gold payment. Victor is in place (I think, judging from the city strength), Oligarchy, Limes wall chop this turn, Bastions, and a Man at Arms upgrade would put Scarborough Fair to something like 63 strength to the legions 50 with the GG in place.

[Krill]

Writing this down for future turns so I don't forget:

Plan if greenline rejects the trade offer (as expected)

T88: complete DT, MH builds builder. Move builder to hill, swap tech to IW.
T89: swap Land Surveyor/Ilkum/whatever/Strategos or conscription, MH, Long, build builders, tech Feudalism. Put a guv'nor in Ponytail. Buy three tiles at Long. Complete third mine. Change tech to Apprenticeship to complete.
T90: Swap civic to Mil Training, finish. Tech to IW. Place IZ at MH in the central position (not horse adjacent)
T91: swap gov to Oligarchy. Swap cards to Veterancy/Conscription/UP/Strategos, MH completes builder, Long stores builder swap all builds to harbours OTOH if greenline is collapsing use Manouvre instead of Veterancy and build horsemen and heavy chariots, swap civic to Feudalism due start of T97 (either all the harbours are done, or I have a bunch of units and I'm 8 turns from Mercenaries and either Knights or Coursers). Put envoy into Zanzibar to annoy Whosit. Finish IW with big chunk of overflow.
...
T97: Swap into Feudal Contract/Conscription/Serfdom/whatever (remove Strategos, will be 6 points from the worst GG but whatever). Build an archer.
...
T99: trigger Arya. All techs eureka'd up to the Ren era, since IW completes eot91 that is enough time to get any Medi tech completed

Whosit DoF has another 13 turns to run. That's essentially a war dec T100, so I need real units available before hand. That pushes me towards not using Veterancy.

[The Black Sword]

In principle I don't see an issue with buying a city. It doesn't seem to be against the rules.

But if someone is on the way out and the value of the city to them is quite low then it can come dangerously close to city gifting. I don't know the current situation well enough but 175g does sound very cheap.

[Krill]

Thanks for the post TBS. Ill add some more facts and a little analysis.

Greenline has an army of warriors and archers. I think something like 8 and 3 respectively.

He has 50 iron and Apprenticeship. He has 175ish gold himself.

If he accepts the offer he has enough gold to upgrade a warrior to a 45 strength man at arms and enough gold to work towards another upgrade.

He has not lost any cities (yet). He may have another way to get a MaA out but I have not seen his iron stockpile decrease so he does not have one in a queue. He lacks the production card and a chop is about 55 production. A MaA is 160 production.

The gold offer is low in an absolute context, OTOH I only have 228 gold, and it is enough to make a material difference.

I think a relevant point is that if such an offer were accepted then I would benefit immensely, both for an extra city and also giving useful resources that would be used against a player I have a DoF with. However, so might greenline, holding his key second city and bloxking the approach to Venice. Potentially this could be an act which is a turning point against Whosits dominance in the game. It feels that if the view is the offer is "too cheap" then where is that line drawn? I feel that is the sort of distinction lurkers would struggle to make and it should only be the general validity which is debatable. The decision rests with greenline if he would accept or not.

Finally, loyalty: it is not certain how I could hold the city in the medium term, and even then Whosit could walk up to it if he breaks through quickly. Theoretically I could just be giving gold away for a city I would lose in 10 turns anyway.

[Krill]

T88

Offer not accepted but not declined :hmmm:

No walls chopped, no warrior upgraded, no iron used. Everyone went on a beeline to Apprenticeship (well, no comment on Chev) and just got there. Maybe he wants to leave the option there and then amend it to ask for more gold and iron, as he is maybe a turn or two from upgrading a warrior from his own funds, and I he wants to see what happens.

That'd be a shame. I'm buying tiles next turn (oh, on that note, turns out I can't count. Thought I needed 400 gold to buy three tiles. I only needed 300 and with LS only need 240) so it will take a good number of turns to get back up to a large amount of gold.

I'm tempted to be greedy. Buying tiles, working the extra farms, and Veterancy gives me a jump to something like 40gpt by around T96, and it quickly spirals. If and when Long reaches size 10 (and a couple of turns of Lilja quickly pays back), with the extra two harbours online it's more like 80gpt and I'm limited by resources, not gold for unit upgrades.