And here we are at the T100 point with another look into the numbers. As last time everything can be found here:
PB54 Tracking
Before I start with the actual numbers let me shortly summarize the last 50 turns:
- scooter and naufragar are at war since T57 and haven't stopped warring until now. Naufragar is a goner and so might scooter.
- Mr. Cairo and Elkad were at each other, but it might have been a small border disput. If only we would know more of those.
- Giraflorens is slowly expanding, but only has some winter wonderland to expand into right now.
- Mjmd made remarkable recovery from Superdeath initial choke.
- Superdeath on the other hand failed to expand
- Miguelito continued to grow his already big empire
- Ruff lost a city to vanrober's Mongolian hordes, but otherwise is doing well it seems
- El Grillo used the early Mjmd/Superdeath conflict to expand it absolute peace to a big empire
- vanrober built up his horde and is about to invade scooter
Also important to note is how many cities everybody has. Here the numbers:
- El Grillo = 12
- Vanrober = 10
- Miguelito = 9
- Mjmd = 9
- Giraflorens = 7
- Mr. Cairo = 6
- Ruff_Hi = 6
- Elkad = 5
- scooter = 4
- Superdeath = 5
- naufragar = 1
Keep in mind that scooter and vanrober exchanged 2 cities just this turn.
Total Commerce
We now left the early turns were commerce alone is a good indicator of someone doing well. Remember this is only the sum of all worked commerce yield tiles + trade yield + anything else that gives extra commerce yield. Not included are any specialists providing beakers or gold or anything other that gives gold directly like shrines. As of T100 we have the following ranking between players
Current TotalCommerce
- El Grillo (PRO) = 208
- Miguelito = 154
- Giraflorens = 100
- Superdeath (FIN, ORG) = 98
- Vanrober = 92
- Mjmd (FIN) = 84
- Mr. Cairo (FIN, AGG) = 83
- Ruff_Hi (FIN) = 69
- Elkad = 65
- scooter = 38
- naufragar = 18
- Chutulu aka The Barbarians = 9
Other then last time this metric is now of more use as the tiny fluctiations from the early turns are gone. It's clear to see that the scooter/naufragar conflict hurt both. At the same time we can clearly see two leaders in Miguelito and El Grillo. In the middle we see a lot of FIN leaders, who would definitly do worse were it not for FIN. It will also be interesting to see how Vanrober will do after his conquest.
While we are looking at Total Commerce it's also interesting to contrast this to Total Maintenance, which serves as a general indicator of how big an empire is at this point in time. The numbers for that are:
- El Grillo (PRO) = 64
- Miguelito = 43
- Mjmd (FIN) = 40
- Vanrober = 35
- Giraflorens = 26
- Ruff_Hi (FIN) = 17
- Mr. Cairo (FIN, AGG) = 16
- Chutulu aka The Barbarians = 16
- Elkad = 14
- Superdeath (FIN, ORG) = 13
- scooter = 9
- naufragar = 0
If we look at both values together we get the following ranking:
- El Grillo (PRO) = 208 - 64 - 26 - 3 = 114
- Superdeath (FIN, ORG) = 98 - 13 - 0 - 3 = 82
- Miguelito = 154 - 43 - 35 - 3 = 73
- Giraflorens = 100 - 26 - 12 - 3 = 59
- Mr. Cairo (FIN, AGG) = 83 - 16 - 6 - 3 = 58
- Ruff_Hi (FIN) = 69 - 17 - 3 - 3 = 46
- Elkad = 65 - 14 - 4 - 3 = 44
- Vanrober = 92 - 35 -19 - 3 = 35
- Mjmd (FIN) = 84 - 40 -16 - 3 = 25
- scooter = 38 - 9 - 2 - 3 = 24
- naufragar = 18 - 0 - 0 - 3 = 15
- Chutulu aka The Barbarians = 9 - 16 - 0 - 3 = -8
Now keep in mind that no specialist, shrines or modifiers of other sources are included in these numbers, so the overall value of these numbers can most certainly be disputed.
EDIT: I've tricked myself again. I've named this value after the name in the code. There it is called "Total Maintenance", but actually it is the "City Maintenance" as shown in the F2 screen. For the real Total Maintenance you have to add up this "City Maintenance + Civic Maintenance and Inflation. I adjusted my numbers above accordingly. Also I would have liked to do this in a table, but I was not able to make it into a satisfying table.
Lastly we also want to look at the cumulative value of Total Commerce again.
- El Grillo (PRO) = 5209
- Miguelito = 4233
- Vanrober = 3352
- Mr. Cairo (FIN, AGG) = 3235
- Superdeath (FIN, ORG) = 3195
- Giraflorens = 3110
- Ruff_Hi (FIN) = 3012
- Mjmd (FIN) = 2964
- scooter = 2150
- Elkad = 2219
- naufragar = 1747
- Chutulu aka The Barbarians = 306
We can still see a familar theme with the FIN leaders doing better then we may have suspected. But we can also see that FIN alone isn't enough to be on top. You also need to play good, grow empire in relative peace and have some luck like El Grillo and Miguelito did.
Financial Bonus
Next we look at the actual Financial Bonus. As a disclaimer just as last time, here I collected all the extra commerce a player (would) have gained if he was working Financial tiles. For example if you worked a coast tile you normally gain 2 commerce and 3 commerce with FIN. In this case my tool notes down 1 extra commerce. You will also find that I am tracking the CtH implemenation of Financial as well as the normal BtS implemenation for comparison.
Looking at the current turn numbers first:
- Miguelito = 23
- Mr. Cairo (FIN, AGG) = 20
- El Grillo (PRO) = 18
- Superdeath (FIN, ORG) = 13
- Vanrober = 12
- Giraflorens = 12
- Mjmd (FIN) = 8
- Ruff_Hi (FIN) = 6
- Elkad = 3
- scooter = 3
- Chutulu aka The Barbarians = 3
- naufragar = 2
As you can see Mr. Cairo is playing his trait to its full advantage. Other FIN leaders could do better. I think it's save to say that a good FIN player would do around 20 extra commerce on this map and an average FIN player around 12.
Next up the cumulated Bonus of the CtH implemenation:
- Mr. Cairo (FIN, AGG) = 596
- Giraflorens = 386
- El Grillo (PRO) = 358
- Vanrober = 352
- Miguelito = 337
- Superdeath (FIN, ORG) = 304
- Ruff_Hi (FIN) = 237
- naufragar = 158
- Mjmd (FIN) = 138
- Chutulu aka The Barbarians = 89
- scooter = 77
- Elkad = 30
If it wasn't clear from the current turn numbers, these numbers show it even clearly. There is only one player playing his trait to its best and that is Mr. Cairo. I understand that Mjmd and Superdeath are doing worse because of their early struggle, but I'm especially disappointed in Ruff_Hi, who could develop in peace.
Let's turn our look at the BtS implementation of FIN now. Again the current turn numbers. I've also put the delta between CtH and BtS in parenthesis:
- Miguelito = 34 (11)
- El Grillo (PRO) = 24 (6)
- Mr. Cairo (FIN, AGG) = 21 (1)
- Giraflorens = 16 (4)
- Vanrober = 16 (4)
- Superdeath (FIN, ORG) = 15 (2)
- Mjmd (FIN) = 11 (3)
- Ruff_Hi (FIN) = 8 (2)
- Elkad = 8 (3)
- scooter = 4 (1)
- naufragar = 3 (0)
- Chutulu aka The Barbarians = 3 (1)
As you can see the difference in the actual turn numbers between CtH and BtS are getting smaller, but BtS would still earn more cash. But for a better comparison between those implementation the cumulative values are still more intersting. Again these are the BtS numbers with the difference towards CtH in parenthesis.
- Mr. Cairo (FIN, AGG) = 837 (241)
- Miguelito = 826 (489)
- Vanrober = 691 (339)
- El Grillo (PRO) = 573 (215)
- Giraflorens = 554 (168)
- Superdeath (FIN, ORG) = 465 (161)
- Mjmd (FIN) = 388 (250)
- Ruff_Hi (FIN) = 357 (120)
- naufragar = 257 (99)
- Elkad = 218 (188)
- scooter = 137 (60)
- Chutulu aka The Barbarians = 89 (0)
As you can see the CtH implementation reduced the overall commerce output by some significant numbers. The output was reduced for everybody at least by 25%, for some players even higher.
Protective Bonus
I have to come clean here and say that with the recent updates I managed to mess up the tracking of the CtH 1.4 numbers, but I'm getting ahead of myself. With more and more foreign trade routes coming into play we see differences between CtH 1.3 and CtH 1.4 versions of PRO. At first let's look at the 1.3 version, which gave extra commerce on every trade route. For comparison I've put the CtH FIN bonus in parenthesis.
Current turn numbers:
- El Grillo (PRO) = 46 (18)
- Miguelito = 18 (23)
- Giraflorens = 14 (12)
- Ruff_Hi (FIN) = 11 (6)
- Superdeath (FIN, ORG) = 10 (13)
- Mjmd (FIN) = 9 (8)
- Elkad = 9 (3)
- Vanrober = 8 (12)
- Mr. Cairo (FIN, AGG) = 6 (20)
- scooter = 3 (3)
- naufragar = 1 (2)
- Chutulu aka The Barbarians = 0 (3)
Cumulative turn numbers:
- El Grillo (PRO) = 1023 (358)
- Miguelito = 424 (337)
- Giraflorens = 346 (386)
- Ruff_Hi (FIN) = 339 (237)
- Mjmd (FIN) = 279 (138)
- Vanrober = 266 (352)
- Mr. Cairo (FIN, AGG) = 253 (596)
- Superdeath (FIN, ORG) = 247 (304)
- Elkad = 210 (30)
- scooter = 171 (77)
- naufragar = 117 (158)
- Chutulu aka The Barbarians = 6 (89)
For the most part the 1.3 PRO stays fairly close to CtH's FIN implementation, sometimes doing a bit better, sometimes a bit worse. But if we look at the largest empires (and also most of the smallest) we can see that this version of PRO does a lot better then FIN. So I feel safe to say that the nerf that PRO got in 1.4 was deserved.
But how does the 1.4 version do here? Remember this version gave extra commerce only to domestic trade routes.
Current turn numbers:
- El Grillo (PRO) = 46
- Miguelito = 0
- Giraflorens = 0
- Ruff_Hi (FIN) = 0
- Mjmd (FIN) = 0
- Vanrober = 0
- Mr. Cairo (FIN, AGG) = 0
- Superdeath (FIN, ORG) = 0
- Elkad = 0
- scooter = 0
- naufragar = 0
- Chutulu aka The Barbarians = 0
Cumulated:
- El Grillo (PRO) = 779
- Miguelito = 139
- Vanrober = 109
- scooter = 108
- Superdeath (FIN, ORG) = 85
- naufragar = 85
- Giraflorens = 84
- Ruff_Hi (FIN) = 66
- Mr. Cairo (FIN, AGG) = 62
- Elkad = 61
- Mjmd (FIN) = 35
- Chutulu aka The Barbarians = 6
These numbers look horribly, do they? First of all I have to explain how I messed up my tracking. I think that the tracking for actual PRO players is incorrect and for the other players it is mostly correct. I will address the only PRO player in a minute, but let me talk about all the others first. I think the reason why we see the numbers being so low is mostly caused by the map. This map is horrible for PRO leaders and I don't mean this as a critic towards the mapmaker, rather it's an explanation for the numbers. Remember how the trade modifiers work. A PRO player can expect
+25% for capitol connection
+75% for PRO
this makes for 2 commerce trade routes. If you have islands you get another
+100% for cities on different landmasses
giving a PRO player 3 commerce trade routes.
Now if we look at the map we see that there are more then enough islands. But interestingly the only players that settled islands so far are:
El Grillo (4+)
Ruff_Hi (2)
Miguelito (1 in T70s)
Mr. Cairo (1 in T84)
Elkad (1 in T??)
But that's only a small factor. The biggest factor is that all players are distributed across three different landmasses. Remember a foreign trade route on different landmass gives:
+25% capitol connection
+150% for peace
+100% for being on a different landmass
so also 3 commerce trade routes. In my tracking tool I calculate the total trade income of a player with and without PRO. If a player has a 3 commerce domestic trade route with PRO and a 3 commerce foreign trade route without it, I count that as a 0 bonus commerce for PRO. Now if we look at a player like Migueltio for example, we see that he has open borders towards all players except El Grillo and Giraflorens. He's also on the same landmass as Giraflorens, Mr. Cairo and Elkad. All other players have cities on a different continent (and Elkad 1 island city). That means he has ca. 35 potential foreign trade routes. But Miguelito only can have 18 trade routes so far, so there are more then enough foreign trade routes that are equally good as PRO domestic trade routes. So as you can see this map is horrible for a PRO player, who wants to play towards his trait. There is only one way to do that and that is having more trade routes overall then potential foreign trade routes. Which neatly segways over to our PRO player El Grillo.
Now keeping in mind that this map is horrible for PRO, El Grillo played his trait as best as he could. The things he did right are:
- Early circumnavigation granting more coastal trade routes
- Building the Great Lighthouse
- Having at least 4+ island cities
- Going for Currency fairly fast.
With all of this he managed to accumulate a whooping 46 trade routes. He right now has open borders to
naufragar (1 city)
Mr. Cairo (6 cities)
Giraflorens (7 cities)
Elkad (5 cities)
Ruff_Hi (6 cities)
So he has 25 potentital foreign trade routes. This leaves 21 domestic trade routes which almost all are 3 commerce trade routes. I've written that he made 46 extra commerce per turn with PRO, but with the foreign trade route in mind he would actually only make 21 extra commerce per turn. It is also important to note that foreign trade routes and domestic trade routes work differently in a very important way. You can only have 1 foreign trade route for each foreign city, but you can have infinite domestic trade routes to the same city. Having said all that, I'm looking forward to El Grillo switching into Mercantilism later, which won't hurt him financially on this map and is a big advantage of PRO.
With all that being said what can be said about the value of PRO:
- We see how PRO does on the worst map doing about 80-130 extra commerce in total on T100
- Islands are important for PRO players, but you want a map where the majority of cities are on the same landmass.
- Circumnavigation still has to come later, but this was addressed in a different thread already.
- PRO is not too strong even though El Grillo is doing so well here. Remember he did everything right and accumulated all the advantages he could get even the unique ones like Great Lighthouse. And even with that he would only make 21 extra commerce. Remember the best FIN player (Mr. Cairo) earns 20 extra commerce.
AGG maintenance bonus
This wasn't mentioned the last time as AGG wasn't a factor back then, but this now has changed. I also have to say that I cheated in this metric. When PB55 started I already expected that 25% maintenace is not good enough, so I started tracking the maintenance bonus if it were 50%. Just keep this in mind with the following numbers and if you want the actual numbers just divide them by 2 a rough estimate.
Current turn numbers
- Ruff_Hi (FIN) = 7
- Vanrober = 6
- El Grillo (PRO) = 5
- Miguelito = 4
- Giraflorens = 4
- Mr. Cairo (FIN, AGG) = 4
- Elkad = 4
- Mjmd (FIN) = 2
- scooter = 2
- Superdeath (FIN, ORG) = 1
- naufragar = 0
- Chutulu aka The Barbarians = 0
Cumulated AGG bonus
- Miguelito = 115
- Ruff_Hi (FIN) = 105
- Vanrober = 83
- El Grillo (PRO) = 80
- Mr. Cairo (FIN, AGG) = 77
- Giraflorens = 58
- Elkad = 48
- scooter = 40
- Mjmd (FIN) = 28
- Superdeath (FIN, ORG) = 19
- naufragar = 11
- Chutulu aka The Barbarians = 0
As you can see the numbers aren't overwhelming, but I would have to say they shouldn't be. We don't want AGG to save/earn as much money as FIN or ORG would do. I also want to point out the this not only would benefit warring players, but players developing in peace too like Miguelito or Ruff_Hi show. I feel confident to put the 50% maintenance into play with the next version.
ORG maintenance bonus
There are three things that are always surprising me with ORG:
- Few players choosing this trait
- Quiet a lot of players thinking this trait is weak in the recent poll
- And players saying that ORG isn't worth it on Monarch difficulty
I hope I can disprove some of those with the following numbers. For comparison I've once again put the related CtH FIN numbers into parenthesis:
Current turn numbers:
- Miguelito = 21 (23)
- El Grillo (PRO) = 16 (18)
- Vanrober = 13 (12)
- Mjmd (FIN) = 12 (8)
- Giraflorens = 10 (12)
- Mr. Cairo (FIN, AGG) = 6 (20)
- Superdeath (FIN, ORG) = 5 (13)
- Elkad = 4 (3)
- Ruff_Hi (FIN) = 3 (6)
- scooter = 2 (3)
- naufragar = 0 (2)
- Chutulu aka The Barbarians = 0 (3)
Cumulated ORG bonus:
- Miguelito = 488 (337)
- El Grillo (PRO) = 257 (358)
- Vanrober = 228 (352)
- Mjmd (FIN) = 192 (138)
- Giraflorens = 186 (386)
- Mr. Cairo (FIN, AGG) = 110 (596)
- Ruff_Hi (FIN) = 78 (237)
- scooter = 46 (77)
- Superdeath (FIN, ORG) = 44 (304)
- Elkad = 30 (30)
- naufragar = 7 (158)
- Chutulu aka The Barbarians = 0 (89)
As you can see ORG is far from being totally weak even on Monarch. Of course you have to play towards the strength of the trait by growing big with both city count and population. This is best represented with Miguelito, who would have saved more gold with ORG then he would have earned gold with FIN, if he had played the same way. Miguelito would even have profited from ORG before T50. Looking at the numbers I think ORG is just ok as it is right now, because on top of the civic maintenance you also get two good buildings in the lighthouse and the courthouse. I expect that after this more players will play combos like IMP/ORG, FIN/ORG or PRO/ORG more often.
Misc
Lastly I want to briefly mention some other statistics. I stopped tracking the tech race with Mysticism and Hunting, because everybody got those shortly after T50. I also want to say that I was shocked to see Ruff_Hi paying inflation on T81, when nobody else did. But then I noticed that they are playing with my experimental inflation game option, which I will disabled in future versions. The other player who started paying more inflation is Ruff_Hi from T94. So we at least know that Ruff_Hi and El Grillo have the most techs as of now.
