[Spoilers]C6PBEM23: Krill sidles yonder, and probably fails

[Krill]

T141 - Start of Renaissance era

Era points: 76. Need 101 for normal age, 115 for golden age

Unique tile improvement: 4
Splendid theatre district: 3 (build at Walrus, 150 production)
First resource consumer for power: 3 (get T142)
First Railroad connection in the world: 3 (get T143)
Free city joins: 2 (either me or Whosit, B&C running)
Admiral defeats enemy: 2 (oh god, don't tempt fate, but really)
Canal completed: 2
First civic of new era: 1
First tech of new era: 1 (modern, might be first so 2 EP)
First fleet: 1 (might be first to Nationalism, so 2 EP)
First corps: 1 (might be first to Nationalism, so 2 EP)
Great person recruited: Great admiral 1
Great person recruited: Great Engineer 1
Great person recruited: Great Scientist 1
First improvement after natural disaster: 1 (farm at Burmese)

=27, no chance of golden age, normal age should be attainable

Possible:

First encampment fully developed (build Military Academy at Long): 3
First enormous city: 1 (will have to push for this)
Governor fully promoted: 1 (unlikely)

News at Venice: Whosit is running B&C, now has a 3 point lead on me, and Long is running B&C this turn, I have no idea what is going to happen because none of the numbers make any sense,

greenline is losing every city though, as he is in a dark age. I wish I had more time, need about another 8 hours per day to do everything.

[Krill]

T141 - Start of Renaissance era

Era points: 76. Need 101 for normal age, 115 for golden age

Unique tile improvement: 4
Splendid theatre district: 3 (build at Walrus, 150 production)
First resource consumer for power: 3 (get T142)
First Railroad connection in the world: 3 (get T143)
Free city joins: 2 (either me or Whosit, B&C running)
Admiral defeats enemy: 2 (oh god, don't tempt fate, but really)
Canal completed: 2
First civic of new era: 1
First tech of new era: 1 (modern, might be first so 2 EP)
First fleet: 1 (might be first to Nationalism, so 2 EP)
First corps: 1 (might be first to Nationalism, so 2 EP)
Great person recruited: Great admiral 1
Great person recruited: Great Engineer 1
Great person recruited: Great Scientist 1
First improvement after natural disaster: 1 (farm at Burmese)

=27, no chance of golden age, normal age should be attainable

Possible:

First encampment fully developed (build Military Academy at Long): 3
First enormous city: 1 (will have to push for this)
Governor fully promoted: 1 (unlikely)

News at Venice: Whosit is running B&C, now has a 3 point lead on me, and Long is running B&C this turn, I have no idea what is going to happen because none of the numbers make any sense, the points were increasing at about 19 per turn between us then he had this large jump, but I have no idea why he made about 9 points in a single turn. I'm (continuing) to move military to secure the area including a treb, I might still capture it before the city flips, I should take the walls down.

greenline is losing every city though, as he is in a dark age. I wish I had more time, need about another 8 hours per day to do everything.

[Krill]

Question for lurkers.

If a city has 30 strength less than an attacking unit and no walls, what is the expected damage range?

[Krill]

T143 - Offered Chev 300 gold for 20 coal. He can have his gold back now if he needs it, as I've been watching Whosit move units back towards him.

I hope to do a good update tomorrow. One thing I learnt is that you do not need railroads in a city to trigger the historic moment for connecting two cities. The air turned blue when I learnt that, waste of gold buying that crouching tiger.

[Krill]

T143 - teaser




With the right policy card, this city can two turn almost anything, resources be damned. In fact a large part of the micro is actually slowing MH down and boosting the other cities. It's like the good old days of Civ 3.

[Krill]

Turn 144 - Capitulation of Venice




Here you go Jabah. This was plan B. It should not have been possible, but because greenline took the brunt of damage from the muskets I managed to get both the knight kill for Military Science eureka, and to clear out the last few units for limited losses. Whosit should never have let me get close to Venice, this is a far more important city than Zanzibar. It generated 189 faith, about 1050 gold and 189 beakers from pillages, couldn't quite get the last mine.

Whosit would have taken the city via loyalty if I hadn't intervened, because he started B&C one turn before I got Long onto the project. I could have skipped a knight and would have been safe, but then I would have been skimping on a potential attack force and I wanted to hedge.

Here is what it looked like on T143:




I moved two knights up from the south, and a courser and knight down from the north. Whosit could only see the northern units, and he only saw them move once he took the lead in loyalty. He never saw the trebs moving up. I used the two southern knights to pillage and also pinged the walls once each, to get enough XP to promo heal. Whosit wouldn't have known what did the damage, but the frigates couldn't attack over the hills so he should have known there was more real stuff in the fog. He should start planning a a real defence.

As it was a musket got built this turn but moved out of the city, so the treb and the two promoted knights finished the city off, and the northern mounted units were not needed.

The original plan was a raiding party but Venice is more important, and frankly if I couln't raze a city a raiding party would have been a bad idea, and drawn more units back towards me. I don't want that, I want them wandering over to Chev (good luck with that invasion Whosit, you just tighten Chev to my side and I get the military alliance for as long as I need).

I'll buy a Pingala worker next turn, or possible the turn after to fix all the tiles. I may need to buy a tile to drop down both forts for the Ballistics eureka. I'll run the rail road straight into the city, and also to the tile west of Venice to give easy access to a harbour.





I had to move Amani into Venice, which essentially stops growth in Mullet (now about 6 turns and 10 food from size 11, whatever). The trade route finished this turn, so just moved it straight to Venice and I'll run it to MH from next turn, the yields will quickly fix everything and get the city growing again.

With Venice in my hands, Burmese will not flip so long as I match Whosit for normal or golden ages. Scarborough Fair is also holding fine, and Urtin Duu has the decent into revolt slowed. It should stabilise now I've stopped running Bread and Circus in Long. Tourdion needs a governor or it's gone, but greenline is refusing to move the guv from Arirang into it.

I think this is the end of the loyalty games for a while, but greenline has to fix Tourdion or all bets are off: he is trading silver from there and I still want that resource.





13 turns until the alliance with TAD ends, and on T146 Magnus gets promoted to Black marketeer and starts two turning frigates.

Even in the world where I think I can win without interference from TAD, I don't see how he has a route to victory without going through me. So I don't see how he could afford to leave me alone, so it's navy all the way even though it's likely to be used once and then done. 4 frigates allows me to join the four frigates already extant into fleets, and then they should be upgradeable to battleships, within the coal budget I already have. Add two ironclads from Long post shipyard to join the previous two caravels (one already upgraded to an ironclad, the ships should take 3 turns apiece) and that's the core of a navy which I will try to use to defeat TAD in detail. They will be powered by Drake, Himeros is likely to be retired for +10 strength versus ranged attacks on an ironclad fleet.

Ponytail will just finish the canal in 4 turns (with tile micro and no overflow), Lumberjack is getting the market but building the knight as well (queue upgrade to a cuir) because I might need to run a trade route from MH to Burmese for extra production depending on amenity situations. It will place the 165ish production theatre district on T146 (it grows in 2, not 1 due to stopping Lilja (food); used it for 2 turns to shave 5 turns off growth. Seems a reasonable exchange of 80 production for 50 culture, 50 beakers and 100 gold.

Mullet will continue with the cavalry, Walrus will swap onto the theatre district, I think it will need to go onto the archeological museum ASAP for the inspiration





I'm now relying on both amenity cards, especially with the near term growth in Venice. I probably have to fit in the arena build at Long. Naval Infrastructure is not going anywhere, and Praetorum has suddenly shown me the value of green cards. Craftsmen almost got dropped but when I looked more closely at MH and Lumberjack it gives significant flexibility in tile assignments and I would have struggled to make used of any other card to the same extent. Press Gangs is mandatory due to the number of ship builds about to happen.

I'm stuck with this set up for another 10 turns or so. Even with growth I doubt I get Nationalism in better than 12 turns.





I think that Ballistics will be finished SoT147 but I might be off. Rifling costs me 513, so should only take 4 turns so SoT151, leaving Steel at 600 from completion and Refining at 750. Given the alliance with TAD ends T157 it will be tight but I can get to Steel first, and if I build campus projects (which I should consider due to Galileo, he basically gives me Refining for free!!!) then I could have Battleships ready for the start of any war.

Whosit is back 4 techs, but he has Ballistics, so he is actually down Military Science, Printing and Siege Tactics, plus Steam Power and Industrialism, and then down one of Square Rigging, Mass production or Castles (he was down Castles ages ago).

TAD is down 5 techs: Industrialism, Steam Power, Square Rigging, Siege Tactics and Military Science, and has all first row Renaissance techs except one. I expect that to be either Printing or Banking, I expect banking (I can't see any banks being built). He will not be happy if he beelines Industrialization

Chev and greenline are on 27 techs. I have no idea what they have or don't have, except they both have Niter and greenline probably has either Siege Tactics or Metal Casting (I expect Metal Casting).





TAD has one more civic than I do, and he has Mercantilism and Reformed Church so he must be missing Enlightenment or Exploration. I think he is making a run at Civil Engineering or Colonialism but he should be grabbing Exploration for Press Gangs: privateers is probably he best way to play the naval war, and running for Nationalism for fleets and corps. Any attack at Ponytail is along an isthmus, so he has to stack the units as high as he can which means corps.

Whosit has one fewer civic than I do, but he has Mercantilism. I think that means he is missing Diplomatic Service (he must has Divine Right for Chivalry, that would be nuts if he didn't?!) That puts him really far from corps even with his good culture rate.

Chev and greenline are well behind and aren't anywhere near getting a first row ren era civic.





A contiguous empire at last. A shame about losing the Zanzibar amenities and gold, that would have allowed me to settle for Fishtail and be a bit more growth orientated, but this empire might be the best placed one in the game. Whosit doesn't have a viable victory condition, greenline is trying to not lose cities, Chev is just behind and TAD, even for all his cities and culture and faith, can't pray for boats, can't get an army down a thin isthmus, and can't catch up in tech. It doesn't feel like I'm winning, it just feels like I'm not losing as badly as everyone else

[Jabah]

Minor detail. You don't have to buy a tile for Venice harbour, you can swap a better "+3 seafood" tile from Long 3rd ring.

How bad is Venice campus ("0 bonus" ex Korean special

[Krill]

I could do that, but there are other considerations: the availability of tiles for the Monks Halo/Long/Mullet/Lumberjack great metropolitan area being the main one, another is the ease of access to that whole strip oof land which is guarded by cliffs and a reef is another. I was going to do this, as I was planning a cheap commercial district from Long between the useless campus and and that harbour but as I captured a CD at Burmese it is no longer "cheap".

So far the Seowon has generated 189 beakers for me. I'll probably fix it for the great person point though, and libraris and universities generate the same beakers regardless of where they are.

[Krill]

T145 - Whosit bungles diplomacy and declares war on the world.

No really, that's the update. I can't exactly screenshot it either. He moved the Zanzibar troops east: I saw that coming a mile away, and the scout got a peek at an out of place unit. That leaves his west mostly uncovered, but I can't sneak past his armoury: I'll go for Galileo so speed up Refining, whilst tech pace will naturally get to Steel relatively quickly. So long as I have oil I can then grind through anything he has, but I need to keep gold for unit upgrades now whilst managing amenities with the extra cities. The previously posted plan remains in place, I just a bit more time to usurp Whosit as the most hated man in PBEM23.

[Krill]

T146 - reset

Due to Whosits' (attempted) invasion of Chev, I'm taking a turn to re-evaluate how to play the two pronged approach to a Khmer with no pressure and a Rome that can't make headway with a military tech advantage.




Using the formula thread but adjusting for the number of techs in the game (76 not 67), I get a a ratio of 100 production to 22.5 great person points generated. Two campus projects gets me Galileo, and open borders with greenline gets me 750 beakers. That leaves Emilie du Chalet who is complete trash for me, and Newton up for grabs. Four turns production from MH gives that, but I can get it slightly slower but with better timings. However, TAD had a recent spike in bpt, which does not really correlate with anything other than a campus project, so we are in a race. First person to 310 wins, and I think I can get there first.

The great Admiral, Drake, is more interesting. I will get there first, I make the most admiral points per turn, I'm in the lead. Drake will empower ironclads and frigates but not battleships. TAD can faith buy any Admiral, possibly gold buy but I doubt that: I can't stop him with a purchase so worst case scenario I expect an equal fight, but who are the next Admirals?

• Santa Cruz who pushes a TADian Caravel to 72 (82 if he gets Nationalism) as a last ditch effort? Last ditch is fine, it means I win at a production cost, but I win. A basic Ironclad will be 75, an ironclad fleet will be 85 but I will have two with Embolon at 92, so I can afford to face that.
  
  
• Yi Sun-Sin gives TAD an option of a single IC (which I could blow up with battleships). I don't care about getting on extra ironclad later on.
  
  
• Magellan - total trash to everyone.
  

tl;dr: I know I want a great admiral, as nothing after Drake really helps TAD do anything except neutralise that great admiral at the cost of losing the ability of buy a bunch of land units. Once I have Drake on the board, best TAD can do is equal that effect, so he dances to my tune, and that's a win.

However, TAD has Mercantilism, if he gets any privateers out he could cause a lot of pain whilst I raze cities...or keep a hidden force which could try and swing a battle, so I need to err on the side of caution.





Long will finish the shipyard SoT147, and then should be pushing 60 production per turn. Part of the challenge is that with Press Gangs It needs either 65 or 48 production per turn for ironclad builds. I have to marry this up with MH: if MH builds frigates I can get Long to 65 without issue. Long can only build ironclads though, due to the niter requiresments. However, I need to work out the campus project requirements, on which note here is Long





I have enough niter to be inefficient with one frigate, (and build it at Long), but I would much prefer to be efficient and save the niter for line infantry upgrades. I have 11 turns left on the alliance with TAD. Frigates take two turns. Four turns for Campus projects and with Refining "bulbable" I lose the ability to build frigates. I can't delay the frigates either as I need at least four to get four fleets in play (as I will be coal constrained very quickly for battleships), although I could delay the GS firing.

The preferred choice is to let Long complete the second campus project, but that will take four turns and is one turn slower. I think I might have to check the micro next turn: lose a turn at MH, try and gain a turn at Long.





Burmese is starting to tune up nicely. I will get an ironclad out of here after finishing the IZ. Probably dump the overflow form the IZ into the workshop (might even one turn it). I will play around with the options but I will get one ironclad out here before the alliance with TAD ends. Lilja (food) is on the cards to burn to size 10, shore up the loyalty, and get the other yields in play. Just the IZ will reduce growth times to ~35%.

Part of the reason I'm fixing the IZ now is to goad Whosit. Will he try and pillage it again? I doubt it. He knows I have the frigates and crossbows in play now, if he puts a unit on that tiles he must expect it to die. And he doesn't have many units on this side of his empire.

Ultimately I'm trying to ensure I have sufficient naval units to wipe out whatever TAD can put together on the Antarctic ocean and then focus on land military for Whosit. However that land military will be oil based in nature and until I know what I have to play with I'm a little hesitant to commit to building too many land units. A couple more knights are fine, a few cavalry will be useful, but I can't build bombards. I need to upgrade warriors to line infantry to use the niter then very quickly build trebs (make treb corps, upgrade to arty). That's 325 gold a piece for the line infantry upgrade and I would need to upgrade three of them, probably four to use the niter. I need the gold for frigate upgrades though, that's essentially all my gold for the next 10 turns. The order or priorities is Galileo first, navy second, army third.