UK Politics Discussion Thread

[MJW (ya that one)]

I assumed that DUP would vote for BJ's deal in the end because it's that or remain and they lose if remain happens due to demographics. If DUP votes against everything then there's around a 20 seat range where a stalemate could happen which would make it plausible (Rainbow or Tory Rebels + DUP making up those seats).

If a con minority happens Corbyn would likely get kicked out which will free up labour to do whatever it wants so it doesn't matter what they say. If Labour majority happens they've said they would reject BJ's deal and put their own bad deal against remain. Loaded refferendum

[Krill]

Nigel Dodds said that they are for the union first, and Brexit second. They would rather remain in the EU and the union, than leave the EU but be cleaved from the union.

That's probably one of the few things that I'd be surprised to see change. I fully expect the DUP to vote against the bill at every single stage it can. I'm not even sure that the DUP would agree to a second confidence and supply arrangement with that deal alive in any state.

That said, I would be amazed if the DUP held the balance of power on 13/12/19. They will be an irrelevance, as I said: Tory majority or bust for Boris. He could do with saving the cash the C&S deal cost them for his other schemes.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Electoral Calculus projects Con win of 70 but they don't consider the inevitable surge of tactical voting at the end of the election, so I will just use Electoral Maps UK for the rest...

[MJW (ya that one)]

   

Tory majority of 44 or Tory+DUP 62. It's getting close enough to election that I might bump it up to Lean Tory (without DUP help) or Likely Tory&DUP soon. Only way Sinn Fein takes seats is if BJ explicitly goes for crashing out but that won't happen before BJ's initial deal goes through and UK can no longer revoke, so for the purposes of Brexit they are empty seats. Lastly as I said before, there are others that up seat projections regularly but they don't consider the surge of tactical voting at the end so that massively inflates Tories chances.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Now 24 or 42 if you include DUP.

[MJW (ya that one)]

6 or 24 if you include DUP. Jon Worth has been pretty good at predicting what will happen and has said CONs need 320 to win due to DUP abstaining (refusing to vote for ether Johnson or Corbyn) and rebels. If you do this you get 18.

[Krill]

So the question is, just how low does the Tory support drop?

[Cyneheard]

So the question is, just how low does the Tory support drop?

You're saying Corbyn might pull this off?

[Krill]

I'm saying hung parliament where no chance of any functioning majority is best case scenario.

[Cyneheard]

I'm saying hung parliament where no chance of any functioning majority is best case scenario.

So status quo except an election showed nothing changes. Fun times.