[SPOILER] PB37: Mirror, mirror, on the wall, who's the most aggressive of them all?

[Krill]

I've had a flair up from a back injury

 I've felt your pain.  You have my sympathies.

BTW, how were the birthday weekends?

[Krill]

No movement from Ventessel with units

   

Look at that! 77K soldier points, increase in 9K soldier points and I believe 1K came from pop, so that's another 2 chariots...right with his two whips at the start of the previous turn. So what's that now, maximum 10 chariot/spears? I think with perfect roads, he can move both chariots to the tile 889 of the desert hill this turn, and invade T63.

Actually, looking at that, and my troop movements, I've logged back in and whipped the spear in WP. Now I'm certain I can have that spear, and an upgrade quechua in AF on T64 before an attack, and that gives me 2 axes and 2 spears with which to attack a chariot stack on the desert hill. I'm now comfortable in stating I'm not looking at anything except killing a Ventessel stack at optimal odds on offense in my culture and then trying to take the attack to him afterwards. If he moves in with a slowmover stack guarded only by axes (and a spear or two), then I'll have more axes, more highly promoted than his, and enough spears to take out half his stack of chariots. The threat from Ventessel has passed, the threat from a poor RNG has returned.

[Thoth]

I've had a flair up from a back injury

 I've felt your pain.  You have my sympathies.

Last Friday was horrible, but that just happened. Got better over the weekend, go back to work this week and it just got worse. Shit happens. Thanks for caring

I"ve suffered through back issues more than a few times over the years.  No fun at all.   Usually takes 3-5 days to be functional again and then another while after that for
the tail end of the pain to dissipate.  Don't rush things.   I have found that over the counter anti-inflamatories and muscle relaxants help a lot, especially for the first few days
after a flare up.  If in doubt, go see a doctor.  

BTW, how were the birthday weekends?

Absolutely epic.  


Had fun getting out to see bands both before and after the day.

On the actual birthday......

To say that we are honoured and excited to have this ALL-STAR Tribute to The Ramones perform at the Linsmore Tavern is an understatement! This Tribute to The Ramones features Darrin Pfeiffer drummer of Goldfinger, THE SALADS! and Sum 41, Mikey Hawdon & Phil Page of FAIRMOUNTS, and Lucas Stagg of The Beat Club! You are not going to see this band play many shows, due to their busy schedule, but you can see them in front of 30,000 at Rockfest this summer or at the Linsmore Tavern in front of an intimate audience!

I got to dance to the songs of my favourite band of all time (The Ramones) in a tiny venue with about 80 people.  It was amazingly cool.
Best birthday celebration ever.

[Krill]

And please accept the White Walkers formal offer of assimilation, we wish only to wrap your people in our cold embrace.
(we're at war now, sadly)

Message from Ventessel. I asked for permission to look at what he has sent forward, I will not log in until that has been received or the turn rolls.

When you are being invaded by someone and you know that every unit you have will have odds in any relevant battle, it's much easier to relax.

[Krill]

Thoth, nice to hear about that. Good luck topping it next year though

[Krill]

   

I have start of turn. Means that Earliest the stack can attack AF moving at 1 tile per turn is T66, they could pillage the copper T65. The earliest I can get the second copper hooked is T67 (but I will still chop the forest at R101, that does not affect copper hookup).


   

The axe is 81hp and has two promotions pending, so 95h for an attack and triple promotion. It will enter AF on T65. The northern quechua will enter AF T63 and can be upgraded T64. The whipped spear (foresight FTW) enters AF T64. The second quechua will enter AF T64 if needed and can be upgraded T65. I have gold to upgrade quechua on T63 and T65, because I move first that means upgrades before copper can be cut. I will finish an axe eot63, but not an axe eot65 because of copper being cut. I will overflow 10 hammers on T63, which means I need to consider alternate builds after this axe.

That gives me a total available to attack with on T66 of 3 axes, 2 double promo, one triple promo and 95hp, 3 spears, 2 C1, 1 single promo, and two potential upgraded quechua. Plus potentially a 3XP chariot from AF. 9 units. AND the chariot from R101 and a further whipped unit from WP can reach into AF to defend. Against 7 chariots, 2 axe and a spear.

You know, I think the worst thing Ventessel could do to me now, is retreat.

[Krill]

Whipping that axe on T63 in AF means I can get the axe T63, another axe or spear T64 and then a chariot T65 (or with a bit of a food deficit an inefficient micro, and somehow kept copper, another axe or spear on T65. So actually that's 10 units on each side, plus two to cover AF. And unless he pillages the silver tile (leaves two chariots on it) or leaves units adjacent to AF and moves to the east of it to threaten WP, Ventessel cannot get past AF without giving me a shot at his stack.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...sp=sharing

Odds of C2 axe against C1 axe: 67%. These are the worst odds battles I should get. If one of my axes bounces of his, a C2 spear gets 63% odds on the axe at 60hp (ie if my axe wins two rounds), which I have 95% odds of getting. A C1 spear against an unpromoted spear is again 67%, but shock spear has 79% odds against his spear. Basically the battle is decided by how his axes fair on defense. If they both die (44% odds of occurring) or drop to 40hp (77.5% odds, at 40hp my spear targets his spear not his axe), then my spears eat everything of his alive.

So this is enough for me to say that whipping that axe next turn in AF is the right move, the additional unit (spear, 3XP) is useful in the instance for attacking Ventessel's spear and potentially a 60hp axe, or the shock chariot if the axes are removed. My triple promo axe is best used with formation against a chariot, so use the other two axes as C2 (C1 shock axes target C1 chariots over C1 axes due to odds, so must promote C2).

The worst thing that can happen is that his axes take exactly 1 hit, reaches 80hp, which means that all my axes then attack chariots, and my spears attack the axes. That would be a doomsday scenario. At that point there are no good options, the stack becomes impervious ie I have to sacrifice units (read, sacrifice a C1 shock spear) to make the attack work again.

Odds of this happening? 3.75% for 1 axe. Now watch it happen.

[Thoth]

Thoth, nice to hear about that. Good luck topping it next year though

  I don't think I'll ever be able to top that night.   But it'll be fun trying.  



I assume you'll be queueing up a few chariots to finish eot 65?  Lack of copper aside, a couple of chase units are always handy to have around.  

Also, I note that the worker in Ventessel's stack means the hill his stack is on will be roaded t64 so he will be able to funnel additional 2 movers in for a t66 attack on AF.


Fun times.    

[Krill]

Note the river. The road only helps me chase down his units as he runs away. The worker is being misused, we must save it!

Also, if the 6xp axe wins a battle it will unlock HE...

[Thoth]

HAH!

I'd missed the river.

Even easier then.