December 20th, 2012, 05:37
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(December 19th, 2012, 20:27)Old Harry Wrote: With Sareln so close behind is the Oracle worth the risk? Metal casting for the Colossus looks pretty useful on this map, but that's a lot of hammers that could be settlers at this point in the game. If I was SevenSpirits I'd be able to figure out how many hammers per beaker and charge you an interest rate on it. But no such luck for you. 
Of course I have been thinking about the Oracle and free Metal Casting would be awesome. However, as you said getting those 150 hammers is not that easy. I could chop-whip-chop-whip it in my second city (5 forests and 2 or 3 whips with some kind of overflow).
I think if I would now go all-in for Oracle I would have a chance to get it, but as CHA Stonehenge is in my opinion the main price here and this early I have the hammers for barely one wonder.
Some kind of mathematical model including hammer-beaker conversion rates would be interesting, but it would be very complex and probably inaccurate at least while:
1. It is difficult to value the benefits of having an earlier settler and a new city ~5 turns earlier up. You would need to estimate the benefits basically from now to the end of the game. (I have an idea of a rough method to do that, but nothing too clever)
2. One of the main parameters when making the decision would be my estimated odds of getting the Oracle. Whether I can judge that..
Let's see if I can lure Seven to comment on this..
December 20th, 2012, 06:34
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(December 20th, 2012, 05:37)Fintourist Wrote: I think if I would now go all-in for Oracle I would have a chance to get it, but as CHA Stonehenge is in my opinion the main price here and this early I have the hammers for barely one wonder. Ah, I'd forgotten that. Much better plan!
(December 20th, 2012, 05:37)Fintourist Wrote: Some kind of mathematical model including hammer-beaker conversion rates would be interesting, but it would be very complex and probably inaccurate at least while:
1. It is difficult to value the benefits of having an earlier settler and a new city ~5 turns earlier up. You would need to estimate the benefits basically from now to the end of the game. (I have an idea of a rough method to do that, but nothing too clever)
2. One of the main parameters when making the decision would be my estimated odds of getting the Oracle. Whether I can judge that.. Yeah, I thought trying to quantify this stuff seemed pointless given how many other random factors exist in a game, but the way Seven valued the traits in PBEM43 (post 9 onwards) was a bit of an eye-opener. Still its hard to evaluate without playing a bunch of MP games.
Completed: RB Demogame - Gillette, PBEM46, Pitboss 13, Pitboss 18, Pitboss 30, Pitboss 31, Pitboss 38, Pitboss 42, Pitboss 46, Pitboss 52 (Pindicator's game), Pitboss 57
In progress: Rimworld
December 20th, 2012, 06:50
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(December 20th, 2012, 06:34)Old Harry Wrote: Ah, I'd forgotten that. Much better plan! Yeah, but maybe the best plan would still be just chopping granaries..
I have read Seven's trait analysis and found that interesting as well. Applying the same approach here would definitely by a complex task.
December 20th, 2012, 09:01
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December 20th, 2012, 09:44
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(December 20th, 2012, 09:01)SevenSpirits Wrote: Have you seen this thread? http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthread.php?tid=4876
No, I had missed that, thanks! That thread contains a lot of interesting analysis and discussion that confirms how difficult e.g. an "Oracle or no Oracle" situation is to quantify.
December 20th, 2012, 10:29
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(December 20th, 2012, 09:01)SevenSpirits Wrote: Have you seen this thread? http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthread.php?tid=4876
Ha! No I hadn't, but I knew you'd have got an interest rate in there somewhere. Thanks! I'll go and do some reading...
Completed: RB Demogame - Gillette, PBEM46, Pitboss 13, Pitboss 18, Pitboss 30, Pitboss 31, Pitboss 38, Pitboss 42, Pitboss 46, Pitboss 52 (Pindicator's game), Pitboss 57
In progress: Rimworld
December 20th, 2012, 18:48
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checking in! I'm playing hannibal over in PBEM 42, though I picked Egypt. Figured I'd check in and see what others are doing with it!
Completed: PBEM 34g (W), 36 , 35 , 5o, 34s, 5p, 42, 48 and PB 9, 18, 27, 57
Current: PB 52. Boudicca of Maya
December 20th, 2012, 19:06
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(December 20th, 2012, 18:48)AutomatedTeller Wrote: checking in! I'm playing hannibal over in PBEM 42, though I picked Egypt. Figured I'd check in and see what others are doing with it!
Nice to hear!  I've been following your 42-thread as well. Egypt was also a strong civ candidate, but my guess was that in a water-heavy map there is not so much use for war chariots and janissarys are at least some kind of help against the UUs of my opponents (Prets, Conquistadors, Redcoats, Numidian Cavalrys) Hammams might also be useful at some point. I still believe that there won't be much warfare until the time that war chariots are obsolete.
Yeah, I hope you find this somewhat interesting. All critique related to the game, reporting style or anything is highly appreciated.
December 20th, 2012, 19:26
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yes, this looks like a completely different style of map. ottoman is a nice civ.
the opening was really interesting. I don't know that I would have made the choice you did (hard to pass up financial lake fish), but then, i may over value commerce... And it's honestly hard to go wrong settling on a PH.
For what it's worth, I agree with the stonehenge over oracle. Oracle is great, but stonehenge is pretty awesome for a charismatic civ.
Completed: PBEM 34g (W), 36 , 35 , 5o, 34s, 5p, 42, 48 and PB 9, 18, 27, 57
Current: PB 52. Boudicca of Maya
December 20th, 2012, 19:47
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Well, I haven't really missed much commerce since I did work the 3/0/3 tile most of the time. What I missed was an awesome 6-food tile, but I gained PH start and did not have to spend time building a work boat. It will be interesting to compare openings afterwards although I guess that both Viqsi and Sareln managed to get additional resources to their fish start (guess: Sareln gold and Viqsi copper), which of course affects the comparison.
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