[Spoilers] It's time to play the music

[ipecac]

[Old Harry]

So scout se and lots of demo screens to see how mirrored the starts are. Any other requests?

[ipecac]

Opponent pick analysis? And Tear List.

[wetbandit]

So scout se and lots of demo screens to see how mirrored the starts are. Any other requests?

More love for Dr. Teeth.

You don't get to see everyone's picks?

[Old Harry]

Turn 0 prelude

The game is up, so I logged in, set the password as OH and moved the scout SE. Oh Ceiliazul!


I guess there could be some food on the hidden tiles, but its probably best to assume not. Moving SE will cost us one turn. The change will be:
-4 plains forest hills
-2 grass forest hills
-2 grass forests
+2 plains hill
+2 riverside plains
+1 riverside plains hill
+1 riverside grass hill
+2 riverside desert hill

or more succinctly:
-8 forests
-3 grass tiles
+1 plains tile
+2 desert tiles
Edit: +6 riverside tiles (two of which we'll never use)

Moving SE-E would net us a couple of flood plains, but they can wait for another city. Lets settle in place eh?

Settings look alright:


Demos and a little message from our friendly admin:



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In the absense of exciting new map info to discuss do you wanna know who picked what instead?

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TBS
Ginghis of Zulu (AGG/IMP)
Fred of Netherlands
Augustus of Russia

With Joey to obsess over early micro and TBS to get the macro decisions right these guys are going to be relevant unless they have a nasty surprise from a neighbour. Luckily there are plenty of aggressive neighbours in this game, but there are still all sorts of reasons to hope we don't start next to Zulu, the quick-starting and early warringness of the pick is only one of them.

Neighbour rating (where one is pleasant and five is scary):
End position prediction: 2nd

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OT4E
Sitting Bull of Inca (PRO/PHI)
Huayna of Ethiopia
Pericles of Maya

PHI/PRO Inca, Comotay showed how strong this combo is in PB25. OT4E is a champion dueler - question is if he can win a free for all (I'm just going on RB games, so feel free to point me to games he's played elsewhere) - PB22's map was unbalanced enough not to be a good indicator and PB30 is too early to make a judgement but I think he'll get bogged down taking a shot at containing a runaway.

Neighbour rating:
End position prediction: 4th

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Commodore
Cathy of Portugal (CRE/IMP)
Isabella of Native America
Saladin of Byzantium

I bet we'll be neighbours and so both of our CRE traits will be redundant . I love IMP for the extra Great Generals and I'd rate it slightly better than our EXP, however Portugal is a bit late and sucks if this isn't a very watery map (1871 land tiles on a 104*64 - looking at the sandbox - map is ~28% land ). If dtay improves Commodore's micro and goal setting and Commodore improves dtay's opportunity-taking and war-wining then this is a combination to be feared, if Com is in charge of micro and dtay looks after military strategy then I might even get near to them score-wise.

Neighbour rating:
End position prediction: 3rd

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Mackoti
Willem of Viking (FIN/CRE)
Ramesses of Mongolia
Suleiman of France

Another CRE leader? Eurgh! And this is another civ that wants a watery map . And its Mackoti. I think he'll just keep his head down and keep a paranoid eye on the neighbours until he can execute a water-borne invasion and vault himself into the lead. I know that picking Mack to be the winner shows a lack of imagination, so sue me (not you Wetbandit - I know you know how).

Neighbour rating:
End position prediction: 1st

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Harry
Sury of Sumer (CRE/EXP)
Qin of Rome
Washington of England

At least I won't get culture crushed in border cites - and perhaps the extra two EXP turns will give us the leg up needed to compete... The only real chance is expanding fast and getting Zigs in place early enough to power on with tech.

Neighbour rating:
End position prediction: 7th

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2Metra
Boudica of India (AGG/CHA)
Alexander of Germany
Julius of Celtia

2Metra is an aggressive player, but not a great player, he hasn't stood out in any of the games he's played at RB, so in this field I think he'll be my competition for the wooden spoon. India is great, even with 2-move fast workers, and if this is a natural sort of map there might not be a lot of happy on it making CHA pretty good. But I think he's going to get bogged down fighting people and fail to make an impression on the game. By the time his 13XP commandos come on the scene he'll be well out of the running.

Neighbour rating:
End position prediction: 8th

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REM
Peter of Holy Rome (PHI/EXP)
Kublai of Aztec
Mehmed of Babylon

Going on past performances REM will beeline a military tech and pile headlong into a neighbour. It *just* worked in PBEM 67 (number?) and its too early to tell if its working in PB27. I don't think it'll work here. I'd have gone for Mehmed myself but what do I know, eh?

Neighbour rating:
End position prediction: 5th

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Pindicator
Charlie of America (PRO/IMP)
Toku of Egypt
Brennus of China

I don't expect early aggression, partly because America still shines relatively late and partly because they're going to be so busy expanding they won't have time for warring. Although the hammers saved on Settlers and Granaries might find their way into fighting units, I don't foresee a war until Pindi feels he can make solid gains, so after borders have touched and expansion options are exhausted. I don't see him as competition for the game after a couple of tough solo showings, but if Scooter helps out just the right amount then I could be being pessimistic. £50 says Ceil put him next to Commodore for the lols.

Neighbour rating:
End position prediction: 6th

[wetbandit]

If there's anything to sue you over mackoti, it's that you ranked him 2 out of 5 on the pleasant-to-be-his-neighbor scale.

[ipecac]

Eww.

SIP it is, I guess. But how does the micro look?

[Old Harry]

If there's anything to sue you over mackoti, it's that you ranked him 2 out of 5 on the pleasant-to-be-his-neighbor scale.

Well it is a relative ranking - I just don't expect him to start a war he can't finish...

[Fintourist]

Hola! Tear lists always deserve commentary!

Overall I agree reg who are the top 3 opponents (mack, TBSJoey, Commotay) and then the other 4 contenders (OT4E, REM, pindicator, 2metra). Personally I would rank pindicator a bit higher IF he puts in the full effort, plans the micro properly etc. I think he has played lately in a bit more casual way, (also PB18 to some extent) and if that's the case then your current ranking is justified. OT4E so high is a bit surprising, but I haven't really followed his play.

Regarding top 3 rankings things are pretty interesting. If TBSJoey and Commotay teams actually have 2 committed players I would consider their chances slightly better than mackoti's. However, if those teams play the game mostly as a one-man show then due to his experience, mack is probably a slight favorite:

• In my eyes dtay is the most impressive player of the lot when it comes to the first 100 turns of the game and if he invests time in this game I expect Commotay to be the team that makes the most ouf of their start.
  
• However, both Commodore and dtay have somewhat of a history of not converting great starts into actual wins. I think Commodore had all the tools required in the legendary PB8 as well as dtay in the PBEMxx where he eventually lost to TBS. In PB18 dtay was very very close to succeeding and a bit unlucky, but to some extent he needs to look at his play critically there as well. Anyways, both Commodore and dtay are experienced players and together they have a very real chance of making excellent mid/late game decisions and taking this game.
  
• I consider TBS a complete player and good in every phase of the game. But if I would need to categorize his strengths and weaknesses I would say that his mid/late game empire management would be his area of excellence. In the weakness side: I might have missed some great performances and haven't analyzed his game fully, but I haven't seen super impressive starts from him. It's better that I don't write too much about the GJ, well, let's at least state that he is also a good player, but I think TBS has the better overall understanding of the game. That being said I think that GJ can contribute a lot to their game and especially if they can co-operate and come out with a strong opening they have a great shot.
  
• I think of the three I expect the weakest micro-start from mackoti. However, if mack is not too far behind, of course he will be a major contender. I think mack's strenghts are the empire management in the mid-game and enormous amount of experience. Mack has a very deep understanding of various ways how one can catapult a civ from a middling position into winning, when the game is getting more and more complex after the initial expansion phase. In addition, his reads on the overall game situation and opponents are always so spot-on that e.g. in PB13 it made me think that he must be reading our thread (clarification: this is a compliment, not an accuse). As a conclusion, if mackoti is still in the running on T100 he will be a major contender and if he is in the lead or more or less even with the lead, he will be the favorite (though only slightly over TBS if those 2 teams are even)
  

Yeah, that's my initial subjective thoughts regarding your competition. Of course you rank yourself way too low, but maybe you aren't planning to play well? Good luck guys! Take the win!

[ipecac]

Wetbandit: The neighbour scale is essentially the 'who is more likely to rush OH' scale.