[SPOILERS] - social distancing with pindicator

[Old Harry]

Just curious what your thoughts on it are. As you say, he's been ahead of you in power by a fair margin for a while, but the gap has been closing the last few turns.

It's not great to be so far behind on power, especially as his power is tied up in cavalry and rifles while ours has been knights and catapults. But there are three things that make me fairly sanguine about the disparity right now:

- We have grenadiers and we're on the way to cannons, so we can defend our border cities should he try to attack (at least until he adds infantry to the mix - not sure how far away that is).

- We currently have naval superiority (we have 14 frigates, 2 privateers and 9 galleons while he's got one privateer and five galleons that we know of), and while he's on the way to chemistry we have a lot more coastal build queues than India. With that naval dominance our coastal cities are relatively safe while we should be able to pin a lot of units in his coastal cities and possibly get the odd city raze here and there.

- We've been cultivating Jowy as a friend, and it's very much in his interest to try to steal Mjmd's recent conquests in Charriu's land, so I'm hoping we can get him to declare at the same time or soon after we do. If Jowy war/peaces Mjmd I think we could be in some trouble though.

[Tarkeel]

Thank you Harry.

[Old Harry]

Turn 217

This was the turn we were all set to prep the attack fleet, and then Mjmd went and double-moved us... It's not really an issue - his privateers have withdrawn and it'll be good to play after him so he can't rush buy things in threatened cities - but it does leave us last to play this turn and there's going to be suspicion if we don't play a double turn. So what do we do?

Sorry Charriu. The selected galleons are in position to hit Evaporator next turn while the frigate is moving east to try and decoy any attention.


Up north we'll probably be facing five rifles next turn. Note the procession of four frigates heading south. They need to be visible if they're going to bombard the culture, so hopefully the way they're arranged won't ring any alarm bells in India. Perhaps he'll think they're sailing to confront the pirates down there?


So tomorrow is the big turn. We're building a lot of boats and pre-building a few cannons (they look like trebuchets right now, but that's just a trick of the light) ready for the fight.


Demos and power. The power gap is getting smaller, see? Unfortunately Universal Suffrage has done amazing things for Mjmd's MFG figure.  

[Thoth]

[Old Harry]

Turn 218

WHY DIDN'T WE SINK THAT FG GALLEON! It looks like it had two knights and a cav on board - if we just had to beat the rifle and welly the city would be ours...


Let's forget about that for a bit and move onto the side event. Our six frigates (three 6-movers from the fog and three of the convoy) bomb Maple Sugar's culture down to 13%. There's one tough CG2 rifle, but then there are two C1 and two C2 which our grenadiers will get 20%ish on. We just need to get rid of the top defender (not always easy in the sims I ran) so:

- CR2 Gren vs CG2 Rifle - 4%...


WIN!!!!!!!!

That's awesome - I was really worried we'd roll enough flawless losses against this guy that we couldn't take the city. With a roll like that first up we might even have taken the MoM city. Can we get a reload?

Also the grenadier is up to 10XP, so he can fight again soon. We need to get a GG medic into the fleet.

Let's see if our luck holds...
- CR2 Gren vs C2 Rifle - 22%... LOSS (down to 4.5/14)
- CR2 Gren vs C2 Rifle - 22%... LOSS (down to 4.5/14)
- C2 Gren vs C1 Rifle - 11%... LOSS (down to 2.8/14)
- C2 Gren vs C1 Rifle - 25%... WINNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!
- C2 Gren vs CG2 LB - 30%... LOSS (down to 2.6/6)
- C2 Gren vs C1 axe - 90%... WIN!!!
- C2 Gren vs C1 axe - 90%... WIN!

The rest of the fights went more according to expectations, but we got good hits in every time so I'm very happy with this. These last three grenadiers have 5XP but I only give them C1 so they can promo-heal and get back into action quickly.

- C1 Gren vs injured CG2 LB - 97%... WIN!
- C1 Gren vs spear - 97%... WIN!
- C1 Gren vs spear - 97%... WIN!

At this point we have some knights that I'd like to give some XP to.

- Bernard Montgomery (C4 knight) vs injured Rifle - 94%...


NARROW WIN!!! (4 XP away from commando)

- Jeanne d'Arc (C4 knight) vs injured Rifle - 94%... WIN!!! (3 XP away from commando)

And the last fight:
- C2 musket vs injured Rifle - 98%... WIN!!

We get 181 gold and one burnt city. That's his Heroic Epic (with one settled GG) and the Forbidden Palace gone at a cost of four grenadiers. It doesn't totally swing the game to us, but will be a big hit to Indian morale.


Given how much power the Indians still have I asked Jowy to declare war on Mjmd too, offering him a fish to symbolise our eternal friendship. If he doesn't bite should we offer his 420 gold back for war? Or might he accept and then offer Mjmd peace straight away?

Down here Mjmd can now build frigates and we've only got one injured frigate to escort our boats. That means next turn we need to do something spectacular with the galleons or retreat. One galleon is still out of sight, so hopefully Mjmd will move some units from Evaporator to reinforce other cities that he feels are more threatened. Unlikely, but we'll leave him the room to make a mistake.

Next turn do we send our full stack of frigates and galleons south to hit this coast, or north, through Cario's canal city to attack the north coast of India? I need to put a picture of the north together next turn to help decide.


Demos and power. I forgot to grab demos before the city fell, but I don't think we made a huge dent in these numbers. Our power isn't far off though now.

[NobleHelium]

Galleon probably had 2 knights and elephant. The cavalry is probably recently built and moved into the city (possibly built by the city itself). The galleons were loaded way before he could have cavalry.

I'm not taking any responsibility for not sinking the galleon.

[Old Harry]

Turn 220

The war is going alright so far, but we haven't made any gains after Maple Sugar. Foam's hill makes it a little too expensive to take, but that saves us the dilemma about whether to keep or burn it.

The new plan is to send the fleet through our canal and focus on some flatland cities on the south coast. We probably aren't going to take any of them, but the aim is to keep so many units pinned defensively that Mjmd can't come at us and that Jowy can take a bunch of Charriu's old cities in the east. Jowy sent a message to the effect that he'll declare on Mjmd in a couple of turns, presumably once he takes Charriu's capital.


Further east the cities have been frustratingly adequately defended, but I *think* our galleon is still secret and Ice was empty this turn so there is still hope of a cruel surprise. I wonder if liberating cities back to Charriu is possible should we get that far along the coast? Anyway, this fun excursion could all be ended by a single frigate, so don't get your hopes up.


The exciting news of the turn was the discovery of a loaded galleon sitting just off Jowy's coast. Sent to the bottom without ceremony.


Demos and power. Hitting that galleon has put us on a par with India's power (I think he lost about 30 000 points, but I didn't remember to take a before and after demos shot ).

Mjmd is saving a lot of cash this turn - he's making 1116 gpt and our best saving rate (in a golden age no less) is 680 gpt. His FIN towns being worth 9gpt compared to our 5gpt is a big deal (he's running Free Speech and has Printing Press) and he also has some shrine income, but I hope there are wealth builds too. We can expect to see some Universal Suffrage rush-buying over the next few turns...

We need to get Printing Press asap. After that Physics for the great scientist and airships as our counter to the infantry that Mjmd is likely to be sporting in ten turns is my thinking. I'll see if I can convince Noble and Pindi.

[Old Harry]

Turn 221

Well this is embarrasing.


Losing the Great Lighthouse in Given Sacrifice costs us 2-3 gpt for 23 coastal cities (would have been more but for Mercantilism) so 60 commerce per turn. With the fishing village that got burnt it's probably on a par with losing the HE/FP city, so let's call the war a draw so far.


How did it happen? Well first off I was too confident in the sentry net and moved the stack of knights I had defending coastal cities back to core defense duties. Second I presume that while I was killing Mjmd's caravel on t212 his galleons snuck up into the ice and threaded the needle of my frigate and caravel which were patrolling up there. I don't see how he could have got through the sentry net otherwise. Anyway we killed the eastern boat (I think it had a rifle and knight on board) and drafted LordOfMountains so it can't fall next turn (the western galleon only has one unit left on board as the LB in Given Sacrifice took out a rifle).


We get some measure of revenge by burning Ice. Frustratingly the Indian galleon here stopped me taking a 70% shot at Low Budget this turn. The CR3 grenadier and C2 pinch musket that I offloaded would likely take the rifle and spear in Low Budget easily next turn, but I expect the spear to get upgraded or a cavalry charge from the north to put a stop to that. The knight and galleon got disbanded to deny XP.


In the inland sea a couple of frigates have used Cairo's canal city to see what they can find and I was curious how blockading the Indian Moai city would hurt.


Wow! 120 commerce just from this trade route? That's the most damage we've done yet! Anyone know why the rival best MFG and CY also dropped? I thought the blockade didn't affect tile usage in CtH but the little boats have disappeared from some of the moai coast...

We've got a few more frigates on their way to help out here because Mjmd is certain to want to break this blockade - he's got a couple of frigates in Mixed Drinks already, but they won't get odds on our boats.


Demos and power. Come on Jowy, help us out here!

[Old Harry]

In the inland sea a couple of frigates have used Cairo's canal city to see what they can find and I was curious how blockading the Indian Moai city would hurt.


Wow! 120 commerce just from this trade route? That's the most damage we've done yet! Anyone know why the rival best MFG and CY also dropped? I thought the blockade didn't affect tile usage in CtH but the little boats have disappeared from some of the moai coast...

PB53 spoiler - only for Scooter's eyes

Scooter has had the same thing happen on the same day except that he's on the receiving end. It's actually because the blockade has cut the city off from all the happy and health resources of the Indian empire. This means the city is suddenly unhappy and can't work it's tiles and may be about to starve down really badly so the GNP, MFG and Crop loss was more about tiles unworked than trade routes.

Blockades are an area where I think RtR has the better and more close-to-home mechanic - just restricting the size to a 9-tile square means a blockade requires more boats to enforce and is less all-powerful, even if it does stop tiles being worked.

[Old Harry]

Turn 224

Not much going on, mostly shuffling boats around so they can't be hit by too many enemy boats and occasional scouting HA skirmishes in Egypt.

We're building three settlers (one to replace given sacrifice, the others for the jungle belt in the middle of the continent) and are building cannons and grenadiers to defend against a land-attack, and dry docks, frigates and ships of the line to try to maintain naval dominance (or even parity). My biggest fear is that he uses Foam to get a fleet through the isthmus and raids our core coast. We have a couple of triremes that can upgrade to frigates if that happens and a few boats due to complete here soon, so plans are in place.

Here's an overview of the theatre. A lot of signs will be out of date, but they give you an idea of how many units we're pinning.


So what are we waiting for?

1. Airships. These will give us great intel and let us take/burn coastal cities which we can't otherwise hit with collateral.
2. Jowy. I'm hoping he's attacking this turn, although he's given Charriu peace and doesn't have open borders, so it's hard to see how he can hit any cities other than Goldsmith Skags and Berserk Halfling.

Perhaps he's thinking that letting us and Mjmd fight it out a bit longer will be good for him, but if that's true why didn't he just take the opportunity to finish off Charriu?


Demos and power. Mr Cairo just took AT's capital and is running around with a big stack of cavalry, so he's not out of the game either. At this point alliances are more important than skill, so I'm really hoping Cairo isn't going to cast his eye our way when AT is done with. Our crop yield and power figures both look very healthy, but Mjmd has proven himself a canny general so far, and he's still got way more economic power than we do, so things are still up in the air.