[SPOILERS PB71]Krill: By the numbers, when the walls fell (on everyone else)

[scooter]

ugly as that was, it does make me appreciate maces a little more. If you have the tools to get to them early and neighbors are close, it is hard to trade evenly with them.

how much of the sketchy odds do you think was due to the Samurai drill promotions?

Couple of points: no one can get maces early in base BtS or CtH because a player needs both Civil Service and Machinery. Just look at Pindicator here. He barely made it to Maths, he can't get Currency, CoL or Civiler Service unless he finds another 2.8K beakers. The only civ that can do it is Japan in RtR, and in RtR the counter play is similar to defending against an axe and sword rush. It's a weird example but the closest I can get. I don't think a single samurai rush has been pulled off in a manner that could be considered "successful", but maybe this is the closest? it was a very, very close run thing.

Follow-up on this part - how do you think he would have done if he had not sent his stack into the biggest military in the game and instead sent it south?

[Krill]

ugly as that was, it does make me appreciate maces a little more. If you have the tools to get to them early and neighbors are close, it is hard to trade evenly with them.

how much of the sketchy odds do you think was due to the Samurai drill promotions?

Couple of points: no one can get maces early in base BtS or CtH because a player needs both Civil Service and Machinery. Just look at Pindicator here. He barely made it to Maths, he can't get Currency, CoL or Civiler Service unless he finds another 2.8K beakers. The only civ that can do it is Japan in RtR, and in RtR the counter play is similar to defending against an axe and sword rush. It's a weird example but the closest I can get. I don't think a single samurai rush has been pulled off in a manner that could be considered "successful", but maybe this is the closest? it was a very, very close run thing.

Follow-up on this part - how do you think he would have done if he had not sent his stack into the biggest military in the game and instead sent it south?

I'm going to assume that Thoth has HBR, doesn't have Construction, and doesn't have that many HA as he has just cleaned out SD from his land and hasn't done anything else.

Essentially, hot knife through (hot) butter. What can stop him? I've just spent 3 HA, a GG and 8 cats to remove that stack, and that is with double promoted HA and Agg vultures. What does Thoth have? PRO archers and a handful single promo HA? He can't even get shock, when the samurai can be promoted to formation? Essentially Pindicator would be limited by his movement (but he had two workers so raods wouldn't actually have been hard to replace) and there are only two cities to capture until he hits the see and splits Commodore from Thoth. Then head east in what is essentially a slow but truly unstoppable Japanese version of a preat rush that even has collateral and bombard abilities! Samurai with shock get about 50/50 odds on C1 axes with full fort, on a hill, behind walls. Better odds than he got against my vultures

What are the risks? That I would backstab him. So try diplomacy in the knowledge that it shouldn't be hard to point me at Bing given the events of this game (a rational player with Sumeria here would be almost certain to take the opportunity to take out Bing to have a safe backline). But Pin has done nothing regarding diplo with me, not even roaded to my border to connect trade routes to trade resources (part of the reason I roaded the plains hill was to open up that possibility, not just to threaten an invasion, I even did the worker micro to road, move the worker off then return to mine to try and project a bit of friendliness). I have made no aggressive moves towards him, so I can't see this as anything but a gambit that failed (don't want to try and make friends then backstab, so at least he played it straight).

Risk of Commodore then bordering him and having to hold cities whilst also pushing into Thoth? How do you even attack into Samurai without collateral? Commodore doesn't have HBR, he has no units that can fight. A couple of PRO archers and passing samurai are enough.

The biggest risk is he goes bankrupt from capturing cities, but he built Colossus and can claim all the large inland sea lakes on the map if he would just claim the sugar/silk/incense city and Murder Squad. But what does he want to do? Take the cities down to Murder Squad, then take the cities over to Random killing, locking up the entire eastern greenery. At that point, if Pin succeeded, he would probably take all of Thoths cities and then he would be in a position he doesn't need to attack me to win. Silk, spice, sugar, incens, gold, ivory for happy, and that is just what I can see. Wheat, rice, sheep, cow, pig, clam, fish for health? Run to Calendar on the capture gold and try for MoM and use the soon to be GP/GM from Staunton to power through.

[Krill]

An addendum I want to add. I don't want anyone to think that I'm moaning that Pindicator shouldn't have attacked me just because of the events of this turn. This war isn't over, if Pindicator doesn't want to end it and I have to respect that there re four samurai on my doorstep, probably another two moving to the front, and no real challenge for him to build another 6. That would essentially give him the same stack as he just invaded with, and I am still down 8 catapults with limited recourse to whipping (I can replace the 8 but I need more than 8 if he invades with that number again, I need a good 10 and another 6 HA to be safe).

If Pindicator took Rhubarb I think this game was all over bar the screaming for me. If that seems unrealistic, look at this:




Commodore borders my major military producer with a settled GG, gaurded by two spears. All he needs to do is send two workers and three swords and that city is his if I can't move HA to defend it (I need to put up walls and a couple of vultures, but just finding the hammers is a challenge).





If I lost Rhubarb, then that telegraphs to Commodore that he can invade. I considered retreating from Rhubarb and trying to counter attack into the city, but the chariots would have pillaged the roads and I had no workers in position, and could not afford Commodore to get tempted. If I lost the city in this battle, or Pindicator got a decent run in an attack, I'd have nothing left to stop Pin running along the roads to Plum (all roads are outside culture if Rhubarb falls), and from there he moves onto Pear on flatland. He would have the Mids and Great Wall as a prize. If I lost this attack, there was no way to stop the loss of the productive part of hte empire and then I'd simply get pushed back to Pomegranate and Olive, and taken out at a time to suit the others. The game would have easily become a three way fight for dominance.

So whilst I say that Pin could have run Thoth through, if he could take out Rhubarb he had a route to the final battle essentially. I do not think he was wrong to attack me, and I don't think he made a mistake with not attacking. I made the mistake not considering the all samurai stack and how to deal with it.

I got lucky. I could have built a few more units in lieu of the ziggs in Olive and Pomegranate and been more ruthless with a chop to finish teh HA in Rhubarb earlier, that would have made this outcome more certain, but I didn't. OTOH I now benefit from that risk taking behaviour, as is what happens in a game of civ, so...yay? Well played? Nah.

It's just better to be lucky than good.

[Krill]

The shock of T111 was that Pind didn't even try and cover his surviving samurai, which promptly pillaged a mine and then committed honourable seppuku after killing Sun Tzu.

I'm not quite sure why Pin did this, as none of my units were in any shape to chase him if he covered it with his two healthy samurai. That was a waste of 70 hammers IMO.





Overview including the Raspberry location. Probably going to accept the inner ring, none hill city location for ease of settling and improvement. Expected settling T113. The chariot is still injured from the battle of Rhubarb but I don't need to heal it for it to compelte teh last bit of scouting I need before I settle Raspberry, the advantage of sentry. I'm just making sure I don't miss anything like a tundra deer, furs or silver, if I were to plant 1N of the sheep.





With the market completed, there is nothing worth building but cats at Apple. Need to grow it, and it takes 64 food to grow to size 9 which is the current happy cap given whip unhappy. That takes 7 turns with tile stealing, not counting HG pop if I can land it, but then add in the whip unhappy cooling off and it can quite easily push to size 11 in 10 turns. The health will be fine regardless of what happens, but an aqueduct is in the near future if I go past size 12.

I'm chopping the (regrown) grass forest for a cottage, but I've changed tech to MC to open up forges and lumber mills. It's not quite a three turn tech at this point but with growth at Apple and the 5bpt accrued every turn it will certainly be a three turn tech. I could get MC in 6 turns if I don't use gold for espionage or upgrades, then drop the forest chop into a forge, or the cat if I'm forced to.

The forests to be chopped for Pear (HG) aren't needed any more so one of them could also be used for the forge here for the +2 happy from gold and gems (and hence the aqueduuct would be needed at that point). Add in lumber mills on the hills and Apple may become respectable at the larger size, but I need more workers to make this happen.





HG eot115 with 9 cities is the goal.

I can't see if Thoth is building it, but there is not aqueduct in his capital or second city.. Pin isn't. Yuri, Bing, SD can't. So again I am left with wondering if Commodore is going to snipe it. Another reason to go MC next is that with a forge and market here I can try for the 50/50 odds Gspy or GE, and if it is a GE, I should be able to finagle around 15gpp (-1fpt) for a 20ish turn third great person for a golden age. Then I can hold onto a potential Machinery bulb or other, more entertaining play.

Machinery becomes more interesting for crossbows to deal with Pindicator if he remains ornery, windmills help at Rhubarb a little but I don't have the tiles for watermills. I'm not sure I would want to bulb it but the option might be there if I need it.





The below is posted to highlight the challenges of low food cities on these random maps.

Farm every river tile and stack up population for future whips. The only option to stagnate that really works here (given that Pear wants to stagnate is on capital cottages) uses the horse, three hill windmills and the silk. Admittedly that is size 14 and 21hpt. Looking ahead, is this better than whipping? 26hpt with a forge? Or give up the silk to Raspberry and work a lumber mill or watermill (and swap to a CS irrigated plains tile and push to 24 base hpt?)

Only it takes 40 turns to get there, assuming constant growth at 5fpt (hint, this can't be achieved past size 11 so growth slows). Just working lumber mills and the horse would allow, at size 6, 18hpt, size 8 is trivial to reach to round out at 20 base hpt. That feels slightly more realistic, and with drafting at some point a middling size 9 to size 11 city is more achieveable.





Whip the market T112 (next turn) so that regrowth can happen without worrying about the happy cap. Finish the horse, then onto a catapult. Borders pop soon enough and I don't think a new culture building in Staunton will change anything now.

I'm not worried about the need for emergency cats if Pin is deleting samurai he doesn't need to. I'll take the market.





Vulture for emergency whip because I do not trust Commodore and I will return to it after two cats. Borders pop end of turn for a bit of protection (thank you library). Jungle next to oasis is being chopped T114 and farmed T119.




Settler whip T113, Dried Fig settled T115, jungle chopepd T114 and farm complete T119 before moving onto the gems, chopped T123 and mined T127 unless the worker at Olive helps out (quite likely after on chop for the stables)

The spear is going to the Dried Fig city





Growing onto the gold. Now that the soldier points are pretty nasty I don't want to look too scary until I do make a move, but I can't do that until I know what Pin is doing. Therefore not whipping units right now, let the whip unhappy counter run down.

The HG pop will get whipping into something. Possibly a worker, now I think about it? I do need a one or two more. And it would only cost me one food at a deficit for one turn so yeah, that makes sense if I don't need to whip a military unit (I can start the worker on T115 when I know the HG is guaranteed).

Archer will go to the Dried Fig city, and this city needs a vulture.





Need to see this next turn when it resets, because I am ategorically not second in power right now. Also Thoth is gunning for research visability on me so I'm struggling to maintain graphs on Bing, Thoth and Commodore right now, and get anything else done. At least Sumeria makes it work.

Bing isn't threatening me right now, just rebuilding his economy. He should have his horse hooked about now.

[greenline]

How would you rate the value of lumbermills compared to workshops at this stage of the game?

[Krill]

Lumber mills don't cost food to work, so compare a plains forest to a grass hill mine. Would you rather work that, or a plains hill? The answer is almost always the grass hill mine is better as it turns one food I to three hammers whereas the plains hill mine/plains workshop gets 2 hammers per food at best. Workshops do. Workshops are unusable on low food maps. That's the short answer anyway. The long answer is once Biology, Communism and food corps exist then they have a point but this game should be over by then, unless we all torture ourselves and drag it out.

Personally I don't think I will ever want to leave slavery in this game.

[Krill]

Oof, I just logged in after turn roll to look at graphs.

Pin isn't second in power. Now it's Thoth.

[Krill]

Lurkers probably know this already, but Commodore doesn't have Stone, and due to when he got IW around T92, I doubt he then got to Maths and is committed to HG even though he leads on nine cities. I think I'm relatively safe to get HG eot115 and to be in a better position to fight without emergency whips (at least in the major cities).




That said, I have no idea how I have a trade route to Commodore and Thoth, unless it is through Pindicator? Trade along the coast from Commodore to Thoth, through Murder Squad to his sugar city, along the river into the insland sea, through Staunton and into Rhubarb. It's like Heart of Darkness or something.

[Krill]

Question for lurkers.

If I get a great spy, what am I allowed to do with it?

[RefSteel]

Setup voting spreadsheet says both the "no espionage" and "no spies" settings are turned off. Given that, I can't think of any GSp action that wouldn't be allowed: I've only ever heard of restricting Great Spy actions in games where Spies are forbidden.