[Spoilers]C6PBEM23: Krill sidles yonder, and probably fails

[Krill]

T139

Really busy IRL, so limited time to update. I keep on changing plans because of new considerations related to era points and Venice loyalty levels. The game is very much up in the air right now, but I think that it's in a state of "No one has a route to victory" so is likely to devolve into an outright brawl, and Chev is coming back into the game. TAD screwed up with no western ports so he can't do anything to Chev, and Whosit just will not commit to an attack on anything that isn't a city state in sufficient strength.




I declined to put this forward to a vote. It would get me another 10 turns of peace with TAD< but I suspect that I don't want those 10 turns of peace. The best use of this would to try and suck out diplomatic favour from TAD for the next congress (as he would vote against it), but as it costs me 30 favour to even try, I doubt it works out for me. Whosit votes it down, greenline likely ignores it, Chev would not waste his favour either.





It's close but I'm winning. I've been mindful that Whosit could just run bread and circus projects and would put (0.5*13)*0.6=3.9 extra points per turn into Venice, and I have no way to counter that at present. I cannot afford Whosit to take Venice, so I need to finish the entertainment district ASAP, before I can do anything else (competing priorities: shipyard in 4 turns, an extra military engineer for the canal build and railroads. Please note the two knights trying to scavenge a knight kill for the military science eureka.





This is a long shot: I'm asking for gold, but I have no way to say "300 gold now for 300 gold in the next 5 turns plus 20 coal". I don't need this gold, but the plan for era points is that I might get an admiral victory for 2 era points, which means I can also buy the coal plant next turn. But if I can't get the admiral victory, this gold lets me upgrade the ironclad instead, but still buy the coal plant. If I fail at both, then I can buy a crouching tiger for 560 gold and upgrade the ironclad with the gold I have on hand.





Checking the one tile I can't see in TAD land for coal, to make sure TAD is safe from a coal perspective. the siege tower is basically a hold over from taking Preslav, where else would it go but here...I need to flood this area with land units and to stop TAD setting up for a perfect attack on an alpha-strike.





No idea what Whosit is doing with that field cannon, but it's a pain to deal with short of upgrading to cuirs and cavalry. OTOH if it steps forward I think it will die, and maybe Whosit just wants vision and that's all he has around? You can just see an injured musket at Venice, if that is there next turn it dies, but I didn't have enough in range to finish it this turn (bad play on my part).

One of the reasons I want to head for Refining and Steel is that artillery will demolish Bengal from Venice, and then I have a straight shot into Whosit. If I hold Venice, and I have a tech lead, Whosit is in trouble.





Yes, Whosit has muskets, but Chev has Samurai and knows how to use the, The moment Whosit declares on Chev he and I get the military alliance activated and then it's basically a stalemate. I'm going to see just how far south those cities go, because the land goes all the way to the end.

[Jabah]

Can't you just capture Venice instead of waiting for its revolt ?
Somehow it seems to be only strength 25 (while having a musket ??), so frigates and knights should be enough.
Once you have it and with its own population you should have enough loyauty to hold it against Rome ?

[Krill]

T139 continued

screenshots here are from the start of the turn, I reloaded to take them.




TAD took the next GS, GG is the next one, worth 250 beakers to me, 500 to TAD and Chev, 750 to Whosit and greenline (and I could get him into greenlines territory for the full 750). Again this is a bad roll for me, OTOH, he was likely to turn up. I don't care if greenline gets him but I need to make sure TAD doesn't. I have a 90 point headstart on TAD and greenline is 80 ahead of me. OTOH, TAD is making 9 points per turn, I make 6 and greenline 4, so I'm actually last to get there. Typical, something else I need to compete with.

Whosit will get Isidore, but the next GE will be a normal cost. Again, I'm likely to hit the third great person at natural production rates, I'd actually take anything but Sinan, so I'm hoping he comes up first.




Quick run through the cities.

Long has to build the ED next, and run B&D, getting Venice is the most important goal as it's a route to victory without attacking greenline (and I can't attack greenline unless Whosit does first). Shipyard and Military Engineer are wanted next.

Monks Halo really, really wants to have the cash bought coal plant. It gives an extra 150 beakers into Refining, it saves me 4-5 turns on everything, and then it wants the dam (which pays back in 15 turns from adjacency bonuses), and the tier 2 gov building (which lets MH two turn boats forever, with the Magnus promotion), or three turn any land unit. So even though it costs 1200 gold, it essentially buys me 2 units plus the extra powered production in 4 cities.

Mullet has to stick with land units, but it's now essentially my back up producer of anything. I will need to push traders out of here from next turn (I lose Chivalry for a few turns). It's actually going to reach 40 production per turn which is sound, for such a tortured nub of a city, and easy micro around other cities for efficiency. No space for more districts except the water park later on. Now a proud servant of the empire.

Lumberjack is building an arena, and this has been the plan whilst watching Zanzibar fall because I wasn't sure just how bad my amenity situation would get. As it is every city is at atleast +2, but I will lose a few to reallocation as Lumberjack and Walrus get to size 10 so the Arena is actually necessary. After this the market is sitting unbuilt, but again, units: there is a knight sitting at 32/220 and I want that built when I go back into Chivalry after the Enlightenment. I do want the factory here before I get to Electronics, the plan is an oil plant here gives the bonus to all cities, and then MH gets the Magnus promotion to take all the IZ bonuses to push higher. That will have to wait. I will place the theatre district at size 10 and the tile is already claimed by culture.

Walrus will take the shipyard, it's cheap and it pays back quickly, The theatre district goes afterwards and I can choose which museum gets placed later (depending on civic path), one goes in Walrus, one in Lumberjack. With the shipyard, I can put Walrus onto boats, the problem is that Walrus shares production tiles with Lumberjack, so I probably have to sacrifice Walrus (and let it work specialists), in which case I might as well let it trundle along on an Amphitheater.

Ponytail is straightforward: the canal needs to be built. I can share the burden with Long, as the Canal costs 379 production. Using a military engineer is strictly inefficient, but if it gets Ponytail building a unit with a production card rather than building the canal, it becomes more efficient.

None of this mentions walls. I don't know if I need walls. I might get to Steel before anyone can attack, but I want the strength boost and Monarchy housing makes this all more profitable. Limes for 4 turns gets me ancient and medieval walls in all cities except Burmese (that takes 5 turns and a trade route). And as Burmese needs walls for sure, I need to slot in Limes. The only two options are after The Enlightenment or after Nationalism. And Nationalism is a solid 12 turns after the Enlightenment, but them's the breaks if I want fleets for the start of the war. The key point for me is that Burmese needs walls, Ponytail should have them, and Lumberjack and Mullet would appreciate the cheap ancient walls.

I'm currently using two policy cards for amenities, and one gives housing. If I upgrade an ironclad next turn I need professional army. Craftsman is decent but is not as good as a production card whilst actually building units in 3 cities, at least before coal plant and dam are finished. I need Press Gangs once MH finishes the final buildings (SoT146 if I can buy the coal plant), but The Enlightenment finishes SoT144, and then Nationalism would finish SoT156 at current rates (expect slippage). Essentially if I run Craftsmen, I can use one red slot for a production card or I have to give up Retainers (always give up Retainers before Republican Legacy unless running Invention for +8 GE points if I want to try and rush the next GE, or even more left field waste a slot on Inspiration for +2 GS points). If I could give up the amenity card then I could run Craftsmen/Limes/Press Gangs/Republican Legacy.

Maybe I just run Limes between DL and TE? Maybe drag it out a turn if I need to, but that's long enough for Ponytail to get Medieval walls, I might have to just suffer with ancient walls in Burmese, and Lumberjack and Walrus only really want ancient walls for the housing. If someone can reach Walrus to attack it I've already lost. MH is going balls to the wall naked until Steel. Long as well: if greenline wants to attack me there isn't much I can do about it, but I can already see his units aren't in position and I've not attacked him. He might not like Long running B&C though. OTOH, the knights are in place and it's a coastal city that can have a frigate: He will not attack the city, likely would just pillage the ED. It doesn't need medieval walls.

If I had to run PA, it would be PA/Limes/NI/whatever/Craftsmen...Actually, I could ditch both amenity cards, it would run everything real close, but for these few turns I might get away with it. Then I would swap into Craftsmen/Press Gangs/Republican Legacy/Chivalry and just manage the amenity situation.

[Krill]

Can't you just capture Venice instead of waiting for its revolt ?
Somehow it seems to be only strength 25 (while having a musket ??), so frigates and knights should be enough.
Once you have it and with its own population you should have enough loyauty to hold it against Rome ?

When it flipped (which was unexpected, greenline was doing absolutely everything to hold the city) it was going to flip again in 12 turns. I didn't even have the knights in play then, and I have other plans for them.

There is no approach to Venice from the north, units have to come in from the south, but to surround the city, units have to come in range of the Armoury at Bengal, which is strength 56, and Whosit has field cannons. Any unit I put there dies quickly. The city would have to be taken without being under siege. Whosit just spent about 8 turns moving units to capture Zanzibar, and he had bombards, muskets, a great general, and a CS that frankly wanted to die by sacrificing units. The muskets are stronger than any land unit I have on the board, and the frigates can't fire over the hills at the city. I don't think I could have succeeded with what I had available.

And if Whosit spent 2 or 3 turns running Bread and Circus it would swap to him, the city strength would shoot up and he could float units into it over the lake. I might get routed.

I think that B&C is the safer, and cheaper, option. I think that with the plan I have in place I will be certain to get it to jump to me ahead of the curve, and I need the ED at Long anyway (it costs less than 150 production). That's not to say I won't scavenge the knight kill. And yes, loyalty will not be a problem for me, simply because of Burmese: I put more loyalty into that tile than Whosit, even without the city population.

Any more questions, keep them coming.

[Krill]

What you have to understand is that I'm in a really precarious situation here. I'm stuck fighting the player who has had the strongest military all game until the past few turns, whilst I'm on a clock to defend/attack the player in the prime position to take advantage of any distractions or slip ups. And even whilst I'm doing that, there is a smart player with a fantastic late game civ that is being able to develop in peace, and a final player who didn't have much interest in diplomacy in the early game with a route straight into my core with farms paving the way.

If greenline wants to hurt me, he can do. I need him on board. Whosit makes bad choice, so I don't want to interrupt him whilst he is making them (attacking Zanzibar is just a waste of time, yes I lose 100gpt, but it doesn't help him, he needs to kick me out of Burmese and make the city get razed to protect his core, and he needs to eat Chev, so his units are in the wrong place. I am happy he keeps them in the wrong place and attacks the wrong things). TAD tied his hands with the alliance, another mistake, but when it ends I need to have my entire navy in place to destroy his entire coast and bottle him up in his (relatively large) subcontinent. That means I need units, but I lack the resources to build them, and the cities in question only have a few tiles they can be attacked from. That means I need fleets, and next era tech. So I have to dedicate everything I can to getting to battleships which (minus my stupidity and using all available coal) gives me the best chance to lock down TAD, and whatever spare I can to preparing to steamroll Whosit at the same time (artillery at Steel, using oil, and what comes after Steel? Combustion. Tanks, which upgrade via knights). And Chev, if he starts feeling perky at that point, needs to be pounded down before he gets to a navy given his stupendously long coastal line

I cannot afford inefficiencies, I cannot afford to lose anything. I'm basically playing 1930's Germany: The only path I see to winning this game is a 1v1 with Whosit (Great Britain), turning into a 1v2 with TAD (as I turn on the former ally of the USSR), then after eating a chunk of Whosit razing everything I can from Chev (the sleeping behemoth of the USA). And to round this out, greenline is playing France, but in this instance whilst the land could be productive, the lack of amenities would actually detract from my overall output. I don't want it, and I don't think I need it if I can pull off the economic plan.

[Jabah]

Regarding the canal at fishtail, you probably better double check, but I am pretty sure the game won't let you build one here. it is connecting the same side of a sea (and make no sense if the ice was not here) and that is likely an illegal canal. I am afraid you are stuck until the ice melt...

[Krill]

Yeah, I've already checked, it's a complete none starter (Lumberjack can reach that tile and confirmed it is not a valid tile). I just haven't deleted the sign yet. It's a shame, but Mullet is completely isolated from a naval perspective and can't contribute to (attempted) naval superiority.

Ultimately, it's not that important. I need cities to build other units, and Mullet can do that (admittedly I lose out on the encampment building bonuses like I have at Long and Ponytail). Fishtail is still just a pipe dream, I simply lack the gold to buy the settler, plus I'd need to buy a bunch of tiles on T0 and also need another builder, and I'd need to move Liang...It's about 1500 gold for a true iceball city when Iam at an amenity cap. It likely needs to wait until I get Zoos down, but the game will probably be mostly decided by then.

The ice can't melt given the level 0 disaster setting A good reason to build more coal plants though!

[Jabah]

Is Mullet sea completely locked down (on the eastern side) or is there a southern passage // option to build a canal (in Korea) to reach another sea ?

To know if any boat made in Mullet (that might be needed in case of a Korea war) will be trapped forever ?

[Krill]

I sent a GS out there (Arya) 40 odd turns ago, I didn't get to check all teh way, but it runs all the way into the ice fields. Given the terrain to the north, it looks like the oceans are all separate bodies of water, with a couple of canal access points (ie TAD and I have canal access between the northern Antarctic ocean and the Rheic ocean), but there is no access between the Antarctic ocean and the ocean north of Whosit which Chev also has access to via his western coast. What I don't know, and I'll take a screenshot of on the next turn, is the connection between the Rheic ocean, and greenlines eastern coast, because that long spear of land south of Chev also runs into the icefields. It probably has canal access, but I don't know if it has natural route between the two bodies of water.

Short answer, yeah, any boat built by Mullet is likely trapped. But if Korea starts a war I have to end it ASAP, and that involves Urtin Duu coming into my possession and I don't think that requires a navy (at the very least would not use a coal resource unit).

[Krill]

T140 - Last turn of Medieval era.

I had some time today. I checked what happens with buying a coal plant. Turns out that you don't get the era points, and for once this makes sense: you get era points for generating power. Power is worked out at the start of the turn, so buying a coal plant now would give the power era points on T141, too late for my purposes.

Sadly, Chev came through with the gold. I had enough to buy both the coal plant and upgrade an ironclad, but even with the two era points for the admiral kill on a musket which was available, I was one era point short of the golden age. I'd like to feel something, maybe anger at this, but the reality is that this is my mistake: the game is actually doing what it says it would do.

I had to buy a crouching tiger for the 4 era points, and I still upgraded the iron clad as that gave the extra beakers into Steel. I should be able to pillage a tile next turn and buy the coal plant, but the reality is that this costs me far more gold than I should have paid. If I just bought that builder on T139, if I hadn't used the last one charge builder on the fish at Burmese and got the farm a flooded grassland for 1 era point, if the game actually would have let me buy the GE and give the correct number of era points, if, if , if...(one thing I don't question, I could have built the crouching tiger and left it one turn from completion, but if I had realised that this turn it still would have been too late). Maybe even not buying the university until the last possible turn at Long? But that gives me far more beakers than the coal plant this turn would have

On the one hand, this is me being greedy and trying to push. On the other I could have wasted a lot of era points if I did this wrong. I think in future I'm going to plan what era points I intend to gather at the start of every era rather than at a mid point. I can't really complain about not buying the coal plant this turn, it only came to my attention much later than it should have done.

All this to say I've changed my plans again and I've slipped into Raid instead of Limes. There are four mines and a campus at Venice I can pillage, the extra gold and beakers should make up for this loss. I will need to play T141 very carefully but things still look OK.