[SPOILERS - NO PLAYERS] PB41 Lurker Thread: RNG Roulette with a Shotgun

[Krill]

Yeah...he needs a window to get that stuff together. So he is at risk of someone screwing him around, and he is definitely not in a position to screw with another player who has Astro. Com and Pin are safe and have their own window.

Commodore will likely argue again for grabbing the Hindu shrine unless Gav grabs it, and then grab that northern block of land. but if they are first to Frigates they will make a plan to cram that down Rusten throat. BGN is no threat now, Gav will not be able to compete, Cairo is too isolated. Knock down Rusten and the game is won, and early frigates trigger that VC. Can't draft frigates, see.

[Mardoc]

I don’t believe Rusten can get quite so many without fighting.

Well, probably not - I just think the game's getting into the era where conquest works. Conquest is generally more profitable than peaceful settlement when it works, and on top peaceful settlement requires at least a scary-looking power graph, anymore.  Look what happened to BGN when they tried to make peaceful settlement work without a corresponding army.

I don’t think Comm is likely to get a tech lead soon, though he might eventually. Don’t forget that Rusten is about to launch a GA and spend it trying to get to and bulb Chemistry; it seems likely they will beat Comm there.

He's mentioned it...but, well, Chemistry requires Gunpowder and Engineering.  Gunpowder requires Guilds.  Guilds requires Feudalism.

Rusten needs to hand research the rest of Feudalism, plus all of Guilds, Gunpowder, Engineering, in addition to making his Great People.  I don't know if he has Construction (engineering prereq) but it's probably cheap enough to not be a major concern either direction.

These are no longer cheap techs.  At CommoPin's golden age research rate, Guilds alone is taking them 5 turns (~1400 beakers).  Rusten is somewhere between being able to equal them and behind them in research rate, and he's definitely behind in actual tech, not having reached Feudalism yet.    He's still well behind his previous research rate, let alone CommoPin's rate (I think...we'll see how they're doing next turn when their GA ends).  

But three and a half expensive techs are definitely outside of the range where Rusten can get there in a single golden age.  Especially since he's still using specialists for his beakers - they don't get +1'd so the Golden Age only helps him on the bulb part, not the raw beakers for prerequisites part.  He will generate his Great Scientists, but still need to wait for the prerequisites.  I'd be surprised if he hits Frigates any sooner than 20 turns from now (T165-ish).  And not surprised if he takes even longer.  Also, remember that CommoPin already have a Great Scientist coming out this turn, banked for their own Chemistry bulb. I think they might manage to make a second one in the next twenty turns while outresearching Rusten on the prerequisites.

Then he's got to find the hammers to build the Frigates (they upgrade from caravels which I don't think he's built, and 80 hammers is getting out of the range where Slavery can do it for you).

[Zed-F]

I’m willing to be swayed on the tech question if you’re convinced Rusten can’t keep up even with a GA and his FP plans; we don’t have enough info from his thread for me to make a convincing argument otherwise. Sounds like you agree with me that Chemistry + Military was Science will put Comm+Pin firmly in the driver’s seat, though, due to production advantage.

[Mardoc]

I’m willing to be swayed on the tech question if you’re convinced Rusten can’t keep up even with a GA and his FP plans

His FP plan is both good and bad.  It will be hugely profitable, and it's a good thing that he's thinking about it.  But he's not actually building it yet, and his plan is to build it in a city that currently has one choppable forest and currently 4 hpt (before multipliers).  He can potentially add four workshops, putting him up to 16 hpt base.  It's a 200 hammer wonder, so even if he already has a forge, is in OrgRel instead of an XP civic, and chops the forest into the Palace, that's still 6-7 turns away, minimum.  If he had the workshops built and the population to work them, which he doesn't, and if he started to build the thing, which he hasn't.  No particular info on the courthouses he needs as prereqs, either.  So I think it will be at least 10 turns, more likely 15-20, before he gets his FP online.  In that period, I expect CommoPin to continue to improve their economy as well.

Started settling some filler cities near our soon-to-be Forbidden Palace city (The Switch). Clam+horse was just planted and the fish+iron will be up in ~4-5 turns. Once we switch back to caste+rep and get the FP rolling our economy should be back in good shape. Tech is fairly stagnant right now, but we are set up for bursts this middle game so it doesn't worry/bother me much.

we don’t have enough info from his thread for me to make a convincing argument otherwise.

And yet this is also true.  We're going to have to wait for Rusten to report again in ten turns to really be sure who had the better tech rate in those ten turns.  The little bits and pieces I see make me think he's behind and going to stay behind, but it's always possible he's doing something really effective that isn't making it into his reports.  In particular, I'm assuming that he's putting his production into units or cannibalizing it for specialists, but maybe he's building infrastructure off-screen.

Now that I see CommoPin's non-GA research rate, I think Rusten could match them - but I think that will require him to switch out of war mode and I'm skeptical that he will be able and willing to do that. He's spent so much time already just trickling a little bit of research so that he can make his war go better...it'll be very tempting to stay in war mode 'just another few turns' as long as they don't make it obvious that they're ahead.

Sounds like you agree with me that Chemistry + Military was Science will put Comm+Pin firmly in the driver’s seat, though, due to production advantage.

Mostly.  Production advantage is going to get more and more important, as they get into the era where stuff can't be upgraded and can't be tolerably whipped, yes.

I'm not convinced they need Military Science, honestly.  Knights off boats can wreck ancient-era stuff just as well as Grenadiers off boats; the extra promotion from stables about compensates for the missing base strength.  Grens are only important when going against a near peer - someone with Rifling or at least Pikes/Muskets, where you need the additional base strength or to get around anti-Mounted bonuses. They shouldn't be trying to fight near-peers. Not saying it's bad - there's hardly ever a tech that's bad to have - but not vital.

Chemistry will be vital.  The strength difference is stark enough that only Frigates can beat Frigates, and the map is such that naval power is important.  Theoretically enough of a hammer differential could outweigh it, but they don't have that much of a hammer lead.  It will be even more important on their other fronts - Frigates can definitely shut down East Indiamen and Galleons, which would let them take stuff that Gavagai considers his sphere of influence.

Actually, I think one of the biggest factors in the next 20 turns is going to be Gavagai. They need to not end up in a grudge war with him. If he can decisively kill Donovan before CommoPin are ready, or if he's willing to cede what they take (and just be glad Donovan is dead), then they're in good shape. If he tilts and they end up in a long grinding war against East Indiamen, then Rusten will come back into first place. Especially if they get into that war before they get Frigates...

Rusten, meanwhile - I'm happier about his strategic situation than I was earlier. I wasn't expecting BGN to have a morale failure. Now Rusten has two neighbors, naufrager and BGN, who both think they can't win the game and are just playing out the string. That's a lot better for finding targets to invade than people like Gavagai and Donovan who are still making things happen.

[Zed-F]

I get your point about Military Science — I was misremembering that it enabled Drydock when it’s really Steel that does that, so I was weighting it as almost equally important for that spurious reason. It’s probably worth noting that Grens can take CR / amphibious whereas knights can’t, but you’re correct that Frigates are more important.

I’m not sure that Donovan is likely to fold quickly; a lot will depend on Gav’s first couple attacks in Donovan’s core. Gav has what, a dozen cities? I’m not sure he has enough production that he can really afford a knock-down drag-out battle with Comm, especially if Donovan isn’t dead yet. But you’re correct that if he tilts, he might not care, and just dedicate everything to stopping / stalling Comm at sea.

[Mardoc]

I’m not sure that Donovan is likely to fold quickly; a lot will depend on Gav’s first couple attacks in Donovan’s core. Gav has what, a dozen cities? I’m not sure he has enough production that he can really afford a knock-down drag-out battle with Comm, especially if Donovan isn’t dead yet. But you’re correct that if he tilts, he might not care, and just dedicate everything to stopping / stalling Comm at sea.

Donovan has surprised me so far.  All this talk about 'after I conquer Donovan' from multiple parties, and yet so far he's taken several cities and hasn't lost any, if I understand correctly from the fragmentary reporting.  Which might be about to change, but it's unclear.  Whether or not his wonder-building strategy makes sense, I definitely have to admit he's got a strong willingness to take the initiative.

I do think it's likely he survives at least until Commodore joins the war.  I think it might be better for Commodore if he didn't, and Comm had to look for other directions to expand, is all .  But of course Donovan isn't going to cooperate with dying just because it's better for Commodore

[Krill]

Grens are gunpowder units so can't take CR, but upgraded maces can have CR and be turned into Grens.

[Mardoc]

So, it looks to me as though there are at least five players with ambitions for Donovan's land:
Dovovan wants to keep it
Gavagai wants it all
BGN wants 'El Pindore Norte', as does Pindore
Pindore might also want some or all of the rest of Donovan, even though that likely leads to war with Gavagai
and Rusten wants at least to vulture something easy. Maybe he wants more and was planting that city as a beachhead? Can't really tell when he's too busy to report.

I'm sure this ends badly for Donovan, although he might inflict enough pain dying to improve his reputation for the next game. But what happens with everyone else?

My gut says that CommoPin and Rusten both take just enough to not be in a second war immediately. Gavagai and Donovan fight for a long time over Donovan's heartland and Gav eventually wins (partially because Donovan loses his periphery to the vultures). Donovan looks to be hard enough dying that Gav doesn't really profit from his war, though - it's going to cost too much and take too long. BGN gets nothing, he's just a few turns too slow.

But also no one is going to be satisfied with what they take. No more than 20 turns after Donovan dies, there will be at least one new war in his land, quite possibly a general war. Gav and BGN both will be plotting new wars, while Rusten and Commodore - I'm guessing they both build up and look for opportunities. I suspect a big question is whether Rusten has the time and energy to plot a war or whether he simply ends up reacting.

My gut says the the next to die after Donovan is actually Boldly. He's feeling hemmed in enough that he'll try to make something happen against either Rusten or Commodore, and when he does, the world will dogpile him. He's behind enough in tech to be a tempting target, while Gav won't have anyone willing to fight him until they have Frigates. In turn that also means that people will step carefully enough around Gav that he isn't too provoked.

[Bobchillingworth]

Given that Gavagai appears to currently be losing his war against Donovan rather badly, I wouldn't rule him out as someone's conquest either, although his relatively isolated land and EI will make unappetizing in the short term.

[superdeath]

Compin wins this unless some major dogpile occurs. Rusten puts up a good fight but gets smacked down, thats my prediction.