[Spoiler] Any volunteers for a human sacrifice? Brennus of the Aztecs, by Krill

[Krill]

But what about the easy option? I could just ignore azza, carry on as normal, tech to something decent and kill someone. Get SoZ and HE down, settle what I can of the jungle, and then build up. Cats, Jags, and HA (Construction, HBR, Archery and IW) would take me until about T122-125 to tech at a rough estimate.

Theoretically it could work, but what are the future techs that would work? HBR and HA, or knights seem like the only reasonable options if I tried to push further. My land however, isn't good enough to keep on teching to something as far as Guilds. HBR is looking like the most reasonable choice. But let's look at the building times.

If I don't have a unit that unlocks the HE, I need to build the SoZ, and then a stables, a chariot and finally the HE. WTF? makes 19 hpt, and will overflow 2h on T97. The library in Crapital finishes T98, and Aesthetics is researched eot T102, Poly eot T103 and Lit eot T105, enough gold left to tech HBR and then Archery at breakeven by T109. So WTF? builds the SoZ T103, starting with 18 hammers overflow from the previous turn (easy to MM)) and @19hpt finishes it T113 with 8h overflow. By then I could have Maths researched, and 3 forests to chop. So, let's say I chop 2 of them that turn for the stables, which finishes T114, 27h overflow. A chariot is completed T115, 16h overflow. One more forest to chop, and marble for the doubler, means I need 54h to finish the HE which completes T118. 24 turns from here until the HE is finished.

That's my main hammer producer out of action for the next 24 turns. I'd have 38 hpt from Crapital, SC and GNAP, no Archers or HA for the next 15 turns, so nothing to defend jungle cities but warriors and chariots. And do I need Lit that early? I pop the GP from DF on T123, so the GL can't be completed before T111. With 2 forest chops, Maths, and marble the GL costs me 115 hammers, which with different city MM should take me 7 turns to build, and Lit T105 which is actually nigh on perfect.

But do I need it that early? Who is competing with me for it? Nazul? I don't think they are heading up that route, I think they just got IW, Pingo have a war, scooty have just built their fourth wonder and need to expand. Their hammers are going to workers and settlers and defenders, not the GL IMO.

And what do I do with RVC?

[Krill]

This city needs a library. Even with the breakeven slider dropping, this city makes too much commerce to ignore the library. And I still want the GL, even if I think HA are most entertaining. I could get the lib in 4 turns, if Crapital made 16hpt from next turn onwards, which could be made by working the plains hill, river plains, and 22 plains instead of the grass cottage. But that wrecks GNAP and forces it to grow when I don't want to grow GNAP. Next turn it should make 4 more commerce due to cottage growth and labourer reallocation.

I don't want to pay any more unit costs, and I'm going to need all of the commerce I can grab over the next few turns, so it works the marble, and swap to a chariot to improve the army numbers.

Next turn it gets the pig back, and the settler is a 4 turn build. What do I build after that? Well...how about this. Aesthetics is currently 3/483. I make 97bpt...and with the multiplier, 115bpt. Next turn I should make 121. The turn after that 122...turn after that 123, just enough to get Aesthetics in 4, eot T97. Do I have enough gold to make it work? I should have 4 gold spare. But I'm growing 2 population points, one next turn, one the turn after that. And I need another 0.40 gold in city maintenance to cost me that gold. But the galley and chariot come back into my territory in 2 turns, dropping the unit supply by at least 1 gpt. So I can just about make it.

Yes, it is inefficient with the library build. But the SoZ would finish T109, with 11h overflow (OF). I need to save gold for 3 turns and tech for 5 to get to Lit (I should have enough for breakeven to get there, I think), so T104 for Lit, with a little saved gold, enough to get Archery for sure. So the GL time shouldn't be affected by this. I would have 4 turns to tech HBR...not possible without some more MM, but I think it's doable, I just need enough gold, and I shouldn't have to run even 80% slider to make 100 adjusted bpt, needed for 4 turn tech. With 11h OF, this stables is a 3 turn build, T112, 8h OF. 2 turn chariot, 16h OF T114, Maths eot T114, for a T115 HE. 3 turns faster, not a lot, but better.

More on this later though.

Just. Spam. Chariots. This one is built too late to affect the Aesthetics costs, but I'll need the unit to hold jungle cities...liek the Nazul city. In 4 turns it will move from the farm to the grass hill that is about to be mined, and the new pop works a plains hill mine. 14 hpt, or 4 2/3 chariots every 10 turns. Enough to stop any axes from threatening me.

And here is the ace in the whole. I'm going to leave RVC as a totally crap city, chopping the three forests for a settler, due in 5 turns; I do have 3 workers in this area, 2 on the cottage, one on the grass mine 222 at DF. This settler will be used to claim some of the jungle depending on azza's actions. Not going to be able to settle that city until T105 anyway, so no effect on Lit, only on later techs.

2 turns, hits 12 hpt. Depending on how the military moves go, might build a settler fairly shortly, to round off the jungle cities. Otherwise...more chariots? 2 chariots every 5 turns? Looks like I can build a quite nice stack of chariots, if only it wasn't turn 94...

Boring.

[spoiler]

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But wait, this isn't everything!

[Krill]

Look where the two chariots are. At the end of this turn they are 778 of the barb city. azza can't see the chariots. I expect to attack the barb warrior at low enough odds to get 2XP: I won't promote the chariot, getting it to 5/8 XP, after it takes C1 and shock. Odds suggest it shouldn't take much damage, but 2 promotions should help with any of that. I'll need 3 more XP, and I could get them against the warriors in the barb city, or against azza's axes: if I raze the city, and/or destroy the axes, I don't fear azza much. The next batch of units would be able to get to the site around about T112

For azza to attack the city, and keep it, he needs to either knock it down to one or two warriors in the city. I have 2 chariots, one of which should probably get about 85% odds, the other 71% odds against warriors in the city. He can't bring the second axe to bear until T97, and he will always go first in the turn (I'll play afterwards so I don't double move him).

FWIW, the permutations of the battle are quite numerous, and I can't explain all of them at 0120 in the morning with flu. Sufficed to say if azza doesn't take out the W2 warrior so I can look over the city and see where his axes are, I can pop in after he has taken out one or two of the warriors and give him a conundrum: attack the city, and leave his axes vulnerable to my chariots, or stop attacking and let me risk the attack against the warriors in the city. For this reason, hope there isn't a third axe in the fog. If he leaves 2 warriors in the city, and the axes not adjacent to the cow, I move in and can raze the city the turn after, and that is about the best thing azza can do with 2 axes. If he drops it to 1 warrior, I move in, and then he has the option to take the city and lose at least 1 axe or back off. Though he does have 3 units in the area, that warrior shouldn't do particularly well against the shock chariot in a city, but should make it more likely that I can get the 8XP unit.

That would mean the HE build comes down from T115 to T111, whereas with the straight save gold>Lit run, the SoZ wouldn't finish until T113. Which is why I've started Aesthetics this turn, and not Archery.

[Krill]

That won't stop you, will it?

Darrell

It doesn't stop me posting 3100 words on the subject either. And TBH that was probably the more stupid action.

[Krill]

OK, I promised myself that this turn report would be shorter than the last one. I'm not writing a book here (and if anyone says anything about a picture book I'll hunt you down and make you type out all of the reports yourself). I'll see what I can do.

Luckily I've not had long to think about everything that could happen, I finished the last turn report at 0130 and then went to sleep, got up late and ran to uni until lunch time. Rest of the day is my own to lie in a pool of ooze, play the turn and write this report.

I logged into the turn, and this is what I saw:

YES! No war, and nothing coming up behind on the road. Now to see what he did with the other axe:

Interesting. azza attacked with the axe, dropping it to 2.4 health, but is now to 5XP. Now for the chariot move:

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Not shabby. I had a 46% chance of having more hp after the battle (according to Cyneheard's combat calc he gave me in February), but at 72hp with 2 promotions, it will go back to 93hp (as opposed to 96hp if the chariot had had 1 hit, dropping it to 86hp, to 93hp to 96hp).

This is the point where I had to leave the game and figure out combat odds. It turns out that if azza promotes the northern axe (named A1) to shock, he has something like 74hp and 98% odds to win against a barb warrior. If I move my chariots out of his vision (887 of his warrior) I can't see him refusing that battle, and he shouldn't have enough XP to promote again. He would have a 20% chance of not taking any damage, which basically means he has a 80% chance of being at 62hp (27%), or 50hp or lower (53%). I don't see any other move than putting the other axe (A2) 1S of the barb city, with 1 barb warrior in the city.

So next turn, I would then move the chariots 32 onto the cow. azza can only attack the chariots with the C1 warrior (W1), and I have 99.5% odds of winning that battle. I have 85% odds of having 54hp or higher. This is significant, because of the effects on azza's other moves.

azza could do two things. He could take the barb city and leave 2 axes in it, leave 1 axe in it, or not attack at all. If he leaves 2 axes in, the first chariot has 9.5%ish odds on A2, if it is promoted C2. The C1+shock chariot, at 54hp, has 79% odds on A1. Odds of that happening in this scenario are 3 in every 100, and then I still have the W2 warrior on standby. azza then has no units left lying around and I still have a couple and the barb city is mine, and probably gets razed.

If azza leaves 1 axe in the city, his other axe is either on the plains hill (under the warrior if he doesn't attack with it), or the sugar (4 or 6 of the city), then I can throw one chariot at the city, most likely win, and run away from the remaining axe. The city is razed, and there is one less axe lying around and the other is in range of my chariots.

If azza repositions his axes to attack my chariots should I attack the city, I still have 2 chariots that can attack along with the warrior. I would expect to lose at least 1 chariot, as I wouldn't be able to escape the axes, but the city would die. I do not think azza would attack with the warrior if he tried to not attack and hold, but he might find he has a rather weird problem with unit teleportation.

If I leave my warrior on the hill, under his warrior (and he moves his axe onto the hill as well), he can't straight up declare war. He needs to drag the axe onto my chariot and accept the war dec, and his units get teleported to a tile (I can't figure out which one as I don't know where his nearest city is). Because of this, the potential unit moves become quite difficult to compute: with the city dead, the most important things are getting that 8XP chariot and destroying as many axes as possible. And maybe that fast worker as well. But one thing I do know is that to get 3XP on the chariot in a single battle I'd be looking at an 80% battle, so relying on that chariot alone probably won't be enough.

And as an aside, attacking the warrior on the hill? Looking at 68% odds. Enough for that 3XP, but the unit is probably useless for any further fights even if it wins.

But I'm fairly sure I have good odds at taking the city, if I'm right in judging azza.

When you get right down to it, it's an interesting city. I could cottage that hill if I really wanted to, but I think the hammers will be useful. The plains hill will be worked by GNAP next turn. There isn't much growth I can really fit in here.

I changed the city to a 5 turn chariot as stated last turn, but it's not a bad city. It's probably going to keep the corn for the foreseeable future now. It's a pity, suggesting that perhaps RVC should have been planted for hte copper, but without that border pop...

Compared to last turn, it makes 2 cpt less, and next turn will take back the wine, causing another loss of 1 cpt. This MM has made the Aesthetics MM much more difficult than it could have been, but that settler is important.

The roaded plains hill is mined next turn, but the grass hill will not be mined until T99. I will probably have SC just work the other plains mine, and give DP the farm for 2 turns. Shouldn't delay the fish net, as that is limited by culture and not hammers. SC will have a -1fpt but only for few turns.

JUNK CITY. Working the cottage because the forest chops are going to delay the settler by a turn anyway, so might as well get the 3 extra commerce into Aesthetics for a bit of leeway.

One more turn, and I shall have another mediocre production city, mwahahahaha.

Slowburner, but there isn't anything else I can do to speed it up.

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12% of world pop, in 2 cities. And 12K from top power.

[Krill]

An addendum. As I said, I know that I'm not 100% sure to get the HE unit from the skirmish with azza, particularly because I might get the unit to 8XP and then it dies before I can promote it. So I have been keeping an eye on my other high XP units. And last turn I found a possible solution.

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That barb warrior is 65 hp. My warrior is C1+shock and 100hp. It has 75.3% odds attacking the barb on a jungle tile. But I moved the warrior in SC out of the city...hoping that the barb warrior will beeline SC and step off the jungle. That gives me a 99% battle and the barb is just strong enough to also give 2XP according to the combat calc. This is my best chance at the HE I'm going to get IMO, so I moved the warrior on the jungle hill 6 towards Nazul , hoping to keep the barb warrior moving towards Seabitch.

The next half a dozen turns, maybe not even that many, are critical to this game now.

[darrelljs]

Turn pace has been good enough I expect to know the outcome before bed.

Darrell

[Krill]

We'll know what'd happening by Wednesday evening, and Thursday evening the dust should start to settle.

[CFCJesterFool]

Wow...just wow. Finished reading all 48 pages (to date). Yep...way more interesting game than the PBEM one.

[Krill]

Well, this has been an interesting turn to play out. I'm a little annoyed that I missed a picture at the start of the turn, but I can say azza either didn't attack last turn or the barb city made a new warrior. I'd actually be tempted to put 5 quid on the city making a new warrior, as it was three turns since the last warrior left the city, and with the cow, that city can easily make 5hpt for a 3 turn warrior. This has kinda screwed me a little, at first glance, as it means I can't safely raze the city if I run the chariots in now. I'd be looking at something like 60% chance of winning both battles.

As I said, I forgot the before shot. My bad. I also have to admit I'm a retard, that I forgot azza is AGG, so he must be 1 attack away from the second promotion on the northern axe, and unknown XP on the southern axe.

Right now, his fast worker is under my warrior. It might seem like an aggressive move, but he can run his fast worker away before I can do anything to it so, so it's not that bad. However, I do need to keep an eye on anything coming up that road so in one respect it's not a move with 100% peaceful intentions. FWIW, it currently takes 4 turns for anything from the tile 1S of the end of the road to the barb city, which is t100. By t101 I will have 2 more chariots (albeit 0XP ones) on the tile where my chariots are, and I'll had a road from the tile 9 of the chariots back to my empire. So if azza doesn't have anything following his axes I have a long term chance to screw him about here.

Short term, though, is a bit more iffy. There are 2 warriors in the city, and azza has 2 axes and 1 warrior. Next turn he could take the city, and there isn't anything stopping him. One axe would end up outside the city, one inside and the warrior doing...whatever. The warrior could either move 4, 7, or 6. Nothing it does would uncover my chariots, so I'm only concerned with how it would help defend the city from attack: it is more of a threat on defence and it should never have a chance to attack my chariots, as I can position my chariots to attack the city and out of range of the warrior.

Next turn, I expect azza to take the city, leaving the southern axe south of the city by attacking with it first. That would make it possible to move the fast worker under it safe, and road at the same time. That also leaves the wounded axe to attack second. I then move the chariots 3 and threaten the city, or 36 if azza moved the warrior to the tile 47 of the barb city. With the extra turn healing both chariots will be 100hp. I can move my warrior 83 to check out the city, or 73 if he attacked last with the southern axe.

azza's replies to this are to either abandon the city (he gets to kill 1 chariot), put both axes in the city (I have 2 battles at 95% or better odds, and a withdraw chance) or put both axes and the warrior in the city. That last one is interesting, as I'm not 100% sure if the chariots would target the axes first or the warrior: I'm pretty sure it depends how banged up the axes are. Either way, I'm fairly sure that minus some bad RNG roles I'd win that battles. If the battles went well it's even possible I keep the city, or I could offer azza peace for the city: 10 turns peace means I could get 2 archers down there with walls which means the city would hold against anything but a huge stack of axes with 2+ spear escort.

FWIW, though, if azza did something really bizarre like attacking my warrior with an axe and attacking the city at the same time I'm pretty sure I'd get to raze the city as well. Attacking the warrior and leaving the other axe to heal though, I'd have to start gambling, but I think odds would again be worth me to take the city.

Anyway, to more interesting parts of the turn:

9XP warrior Turn 111 HE is now on the cards. That's bad the early Aesthetics a much more...interesting option, though the earliest I think I could finish the HE would be about T108. If I ditched the SoZ build and grew the city right after finishing the settler, I could probably get it T107. Still, I'd rather have the +3XP, but stables can wait. C2 HA should be enough, right?

Well, that didn't go so great for Commodore. And look, azza researched OR.

Scumbag Pingo trading ivory for gold. Hopefully Commodore has seen this: I offered Wines for Commodore's map, now that I'm now a threat to Commodore. Interesting point: most people don't want others to get their maps, for whatever reasons. But when you trade map for map, your map is about to become devalued rather quickly as someone else can trade it away and you get nothing. So the moment you start doing map for map trades you want to do it with everyone body.

But if you trade your map away to someone that doesn't want to trade away their map, your map is still valuable. The person who received your map hasn't traded his map to anyone and still doesn't have any reason to. So trading map for resource isn't that bad an idea. The theorizing would of course vary from game to game depending on neighbours and who could invade them, but I think it holds for AI diplo games.

If Lit falls eot T105 (it's close but I think I can do it, along with Archery at break even immediately after Aesthetics). I should have 7 turns to build something, but also to set up for max overflow into the GL. Ideally, I'm thinking missionaries for the new cities. I have 1 hammer OF (overflow), and 7*12 is 84 hammers, so I'd be able to get 5 hammers overflow, which isn't a lot. However, I could swap the northern cottage to GNAP for the plains hill, to make up another 4hpt. As it is, I only need to make up 6 hammers to get the second missionary to 39/40 hammers, so I'd want to use the plains hill for 1 turn, and probably swap the cottage for the silks tile for 2 turns.

After this, it's figuring out what hpt I need to hit to get the GL. I won't have maths, so the two remaining forest chops will give me 80 hammers with marble (health will not be an issue with the fish hooked up down at DP). That means I need 135 base hammers including OF. A 6 turn GL would need 16hammers overflow, and to work the two hills given to GNAP and the silk (silk for all except final turn when the chop lands, losing a hammer). 16 OF would mean 17 base hpt, which requires the use of the plains mine and the silk instead of 2 grass cottages. Perfectly possible. I WILL NOT slave this city to make sure of the GL. It would cripple WTF? to regrow the population, just when I need to be throwing out units from WTF?

But this would be pretty much perfect, apart from the fact that it getting Crapital to 104 GS points the turn that DF wants to pop the GP. So I need to slow it down by a turn: 17 hpt with 17h OF. Trivial. On the OF turn, work all 3 hills. For rest of the build work the silk and plains hill, giving one cottage to GNAP and another to DF. Slightly prettier too.

Boring. T123 GP. Gotta keep on remembering that. Build the GL one turn too early and everything goes to shit.

Pretty city...

Next turn it can either grow, or swap the grass farm for a mine to get the chariot one turn sooner. Has no real effect on DP or Aesthetics, but a chariot one turn earlier might make all the difference.

Wait, do tundra chops take longer? Well bollocks to that I say. Delays the settler by a turn but no biggie AFAICS.

I thought CIV was designed to make camp cities a bad strategy. Well, whatever, worst case I grow this one extra pop whilst it's given the hills to Crapital so at size 6 it works the wine for WTF?.

I really do wonder about my dot map decisions sometimes. I suppose long term the idea is light house and barracks and another junk unit pump city. Like I need another one of those, I already have 2 and WTF?.

OK, at this point I feel like I need to step back and question why I'm doing so well in these demographics. I've been lowering the CY to increase the MFG, but I'm still making more than 33% more CY than second place. I'm top in GNP but second place is either Nazul with bunch of coastal clams, gold and ivory, and 12 CRE culture, or scooty with over 35 wonder culture. I'm making 14 plus palace, and I'm not counting palace culture in theirs either. I have less food hooked than anyone else (note, I have 3 more food tiles on my entire peninsula to hook), and they may not have hooked all of their but still have it worked.

Whatever. Just go bang some heads.