[SPOILER] PB37: Mirror, mirror, on the wall, who's the most aggressive of them all?

[Krill]

OK, despite not being able to log in and whip an extra pike, I should actually have landed on T160 the following units:

• 4 axes
  
• 9 maces
  
• 7 swords
  
• 7 cats
  
• 3 longbows
  
• 1 Xbow
  
• 2 pikes

That's 26 hitters and 6 cats (all cats are 8XP, so +100% collateral damage) to hit 4 knights, 3 Xbow, 1 Lbow, an axe and 3 cats. If I delayed a further turn, I could add in a further couple of cats, knights, pikes and maces, call it a further 6 units. And I can land that, delay the attack and just bombard down the soon to be produced castle in Mandrake. There are 4 knights in the city that can flank the cats, but they have to win to get flanking damage and they won't have odds on attack. Then i just promote the cats after the attack and heal about 85% of the damage dealt anyway. And I have a GG if I want to dump a medic 3 healer down. And I am blockading Mandrake so Chumchu can only unload in the city if he leaves the galleons either on the water to be killed, or in the city to be destroyed.

Gav gave peace this turn, Joey isn't going to invade, Chumchu has no outs anymore.

[Krill]

Should be nearing the end of the war now.

   

Chumchu moved the galleons up north, I think they are on the tile NE of the fort. This is good for me, even 6 move galleons can only just reach into Mandrake from that row of tiles, so if they are further north, they are no threat to the invasion, and Mandrake cannot be reinforced from boats if I am smart.

   

3 Xbow, 3 Lbow, 4 knights, 3 cats and an axe.

If the cats and the knights attack out, then there will be 7 units left to defend Mandrake. There are no galleons that can place units directly into Mandrake, and if galleons unload onto the tile north of Mandrake, then I can attack and kill every galleon next turn as I have 15 galleons in range on various tiles. If something goes wrong and 20 units appear on that tile, even if the galleons all die, I have the ability to evacuate 26 units just with the 4 galleons to the east of the Mandrake island, plus the single galley. So every unit can be evacuated.

My units are on a forest, and the other side of a river. You might think this is a mistake, but I have 7, B3 cats:

   

oh wait, these look like unpromoted units?

Because most of them don't need to be. The W3 mace has 2 free strikes, and kills cats in 3 hits. C2/Shock knights hit the pikes (killed a sentry chariot with a 13XP pike then promoted it 4 times to heal the 24hp lost back for 22 more hp), the knights have 4% odds against the W2/C2/formation pike and 9% odds against the other pike. Ultimately, 4 knights aren't enough to flank the 7 cats, and all the cats can promote 87.5% of the damage dealt to them by flanking, and then get +100% collateral damage. So really if he attacks out I can easily weather that attack, then promote heal and use the cats to dump collateral onto every single unit in that city, dropping them to half health. The maces then get to promote amphib/CR2 or CR3 (with one additional promotion, every other mace is 13XP except the W3 mace and obliterate what's left in the city. There will be losses on my side if this happens.

Other outcome? Chumchu holds tight, doesn't try to reinforce Mandrake but doesn't attack. Then I just hunker down and start dropping the culture from the Castle, and drop off reinforcements, trebs, knights, more maces, more cats. Now that I have the stack in position, I have the flexibility of keeping my galleons in position to blockade, but past two turns I had to withdraw them to drop off the stack, that gave Chumchu the option to move units around. I'm not giving him that option again. And he can't retreat his units.

So...it's a trap. There's no right move for Chumchu that I can see, because even in the theoretical situation where he dumps a huge stack outside Mandrake to threaten to retake the city, I can just isolate his army on a 5 tile island and then drop a 30 unit stack outside another coastal city on T162. He can't defend everything.

[Krill]

Also, at this point I feel ready for the game to end. I know the only way to win is still through owning what used to be China, but I don't have the interest in planning extensively and playing the war turns every day. So after retaking Mandrake at some point in the next 10 turns I'm going to be reverting to some quickly played builder turns and try to rectify my crippled economy. Just planted 4 new cities fifth in 2 more turns, will revolt to OR and throw down the second shrine.

[Krill]

Just played T162. Chumchu has to play T163 and T164 then I can attack with 11 cats into 3Lbow, 3 Xbow, 4 knights, an axe and 3 cats. I just have to stop him getting more units into the city and it dies. So I'm playing ballet with the galleons to stop him. Chumchu could have tried to Raze Regna and Sweet Water but would have lost his galleons so he moved everything back into cities, and every turn I have to reposition the navy to block a move into Mandrake. This was an oversight, I could have stopped him getting the units into Chehalis, but not stop them reaching a fort and being able to threaten to reinforce mandrake.

It's giving me a headache.

If he says fuck it and just lands a stack most he can land is 18 units, he only has 6 galleons left. I then have the option to attack M<andrake with it at 36% culture defense and 8 cats ready to attack next turn (one promoted to CR1/Accuracy to get Mandrake down to no culture defense exactly on T163). That would be a complete bloodbath. We'll see what happens.

If Mandrake falls on T164, I'll probably just offer peace. I could do with the 10 turns to revolt into OR, spread Toaism, whip courthouses and Markets and try to get to Chemistry. If Chumchu wanted to run to Chemistry, he could then push out Frigates and try to re-establish naval dominance and he just got a GS. I have a GP due from R101 eot174, that allows me to trigger a golden age then (GM/GS due from Nightshade in 4 turns). Everyone has awful tech speed.

[Krill]

Also this is how you wage war on islands. You need two navies, one for transport, one to hold the water, and a stack that moves between island strongholds and takes the cities as hammer efficiently as possible. Specifically, 8 trend and a cat, promoted to accuracy can one turn remove culture defense from anything except castle cities with chitchen itza. So 3 galleons to transport the walls destruction company, enough galleons to transport the stack defenders of pikes, maces, Lbow and show, probably another 3 or 4 galleons, and then enough galleons to transport sacrificial cats and city attackers. Once you've built that stack, you just need to keep on replacing the dead CR maces and B2 cats, everything else should be untouched.

I don't think anyone else has actually figured this out yet, given that they all seem to be flailing around dry whipping lbows and throwing city attackers into the meat grinder.

[Krill]

And yes, just the city bombard stack costs something like 1250 hammers plus stack defenders another 750 hammers. 2k hammers just for that. Islands games suck up a tremendous amount of hammers on hammer poor maps, plus not enough land for cottages, so tech pace suffers more. Efficiency wins games, or would do if luck didn't trump everything.

[Krill]

I don't think I'll understand Couer or Chumchu.

Chumchu just attacked a stack of 2 galleons I had to the north of Chehalis, essentially in his backlines, and it was obvious they were empty.

Both galleons were there after I killed a 1.5 strength galleon that won a 25% battle, I killed it so it wouldn't promote to C3, leaving a 3.4 and full strength on a coastal tile.

Chumchu then went and threw away 4 galleons killing mine. He lost 28%, 50%, 46% and 73% battles, losing two of his 6 move galleons in the process. To kill run of the mill units that were out of position and only a threat to pillage seafood tiles.

I just don't get why make that play? But then again, nothing new there.

Mandrake is down to no culture defense, a C2/CR3 sword already has 20% odds and I have 11 cats to throw away. Retake the city, then offer peace. If Chumchu rejects peace I just don't know what is expected except to continue trying to destroy his coastal cities. Race to frigates I suppose. Probably go straight wealth builds to do it, as every city finishes the single building they are completing/whipping? Not like I can expect to finish more buildings if Chumchu won't accept peace.

[Krill]

Battle time. Report to be written concurrently with the turn play.

OK, Chumchu though he was being smart, he saved his cats and attacked with all three of them this turn, so ,my units can't heal, right? Well that W3 mace beat the shit out of his cats. Over three attacks the W3 mace lost 21hp, the most other units lost from the collateral is about 12-13 hp, and that is mainly on units that can promote multiple times. So basically it did nothing. In fact I would argue it was a net negative, because if the cats still existed, they would soak up some of the collateral (ie collateral that would hit the cats is written off) which saves the real defenders from damage. In this instance, he just put damage onto units that probably won't even attack.





The order of battle is to throw the cats in one at a time, after promoting them to B3, after each attack check the odds of the maces and swords (especially unpromoted maces).

B3 Catapult 5.0 v 16.50 G2 Lbow, Loss, Lbow 89hp. Note: All three Xbows down to 4.9/6 strength from one attack, two knights down to 8.6/10, one axe down to 4.0/5.
B3 Catapult 5.0 v 16.20 G2 Lbow, Loss, Lbow 100hp. Note, no hits on Lbow. Due to collateral not hitting the attack unit, potentially going to have to attack with a CR3/Cover mace which has 56% odds of victory.
CR3 Catapult 5.0 v 11.70 G2 Lbow, Loss, Lbow 100hp. Little unlucky to lose 7 rounds in a row there. Now that some units are getting close to 50hp, collateral is not as useful as it will not affect all units.
CR3/Cover mace 8.80 v 8.70 G2 Lbow, Win, Mace 24hp. (Lbow did 19hp damage, mace did 20). OK, now we are moving.

At this point I have to stop and take stock of what units are left to defend.





So the main issues are the two Lbows, one 5.5 and one 4.3 strength. Plus that knight, but the knight gets annihilated by a CR mace. I only have 3 full health maces left, but a lot of 7.0 health maces. I have a C2/CR3 sword which gets 44% odds on the top Lbow already.

now, another mace promoted to CR3/Cover should get 69% odds on that Lbow, and then it looks like clean sailing. 13XP maces aren't exactly rare, and it's 70 hammer cost compared to a 50 hammer cost of the catapult, but I still want to get another catapult attack in against a weaker target.

CR3/Cover Mace 8.80 v 7.09 C1/Shock Lbow, Win, Mace 28hp.


So now maces are starting to hit the 64/55hp Xbows when they are promoted and reach over 60% odds without taking the final promo (checking via mouseover with units as they are currently promoted). There is just that final knight to remove, question is CR3 cat or B3 cat? I went with B3.

B3 Catapult 5.0 v 14.5 C2/Formation knight, Loss, Knight 76hp. Perfect, collateral hits the remaining Lbow to about 55hp, and dropped the other knights to 79hp and two to 64hp. Only half difficult unit remaining is the 64hp Xbow. I have a C2/CR3 sword that gets same odds as a mace on it, so attack with that.

C2/CR3 Sword 7.2 v 5.76 G2 Xbow, Win, Sword 60hp.
C2/CR2/Amphib Mace 9.6 v 6.76 G2 Xbow, Win, Mace 81hp.
C1/CR3 Sword 6.60 v 4.95 G2 Lbow, Win 60hp.
C2/CR3 Mace 9.6 v 6.43 CG2 Xbow, Win 62hp.
88 hp C2/CR2/Amphib Mace 8.44 v 6.32 Knight, Win, 88hp.
87hp C1/CR3 Sword 5.74 v 4.21 C2/Formation knight, Win 36hp.
87 hp C2/CF3 Sword 6.26 v 4.12 C2/Shock knight, Win 87hp.
99hp C2/CR2/Amphib Mace 9.5 v 5.12 C2/Shock knight, Win 51hp.
Lbow 6.0 v 2.5 C1/medic axe, Win, 100hp.





Retake Mandrake for the cost of 4 cats, gain 30gg points (thought I could get more, but I think I played this by the numbers for once, didn't take 70% odds attacks when I could avoid it) and offer peace to Chumchu. He left a musket in vision, so he is closer to Chemsitry than I would like. I'll save gold this turn, if he doesn't accept peace go 100% to Chemistry.

And thanks for the castle Chumchu.

[Krill]

Tech wise, game is easy mode to understand. I'm building Wealth pretty much everywhere except cities that finish buildings this turn. Save 350g this turn, 860 in the bank, next turn I'll generate further 70gpt from wealth and save a little bit from finishing courthouses. Tech maxes out at 650bpt right now, but next turn costs should be below 150gpt with the wealth builds.

That means Gunpowder in 3 with a lot of overflow, then Chemistry in 5 turns, maybe 6 if I have to whip units.

Options: If Chumchu accepts peace, then I can rush Chemistry and for the third time, Carthage will not have a tech advantage. however, if they were to redeclare war, I would have the means to remove culture defenses from coastal cities so I could just try and force razing everything, but frankly neither Chumchu or Couer have, in this game,. ever thought that a threat to them has existed despite evidence, so I don't think this works as a deterrent.

If Chumchu does not accept peace, then he has the potential to build Frigates before I do. Probably 5 turns or so lead?

The answer to that is trivial, spread units between cities. Move galleons between cities to hit any stack that is landed until I can build my own frigates and retake the seas. I don't think Chumchu would be able to get many frigates out anyway, he would then have to move them into position, whereas I would just whip them in all the coastal cities and immediately have a navy of 10 frigates (plus 4 good production cities building them afterwards) the turn after I got Chemistry and then quickly ramp up to 20. If Couer tries to land, then standard stack attack into the landed unit but he doesn't have galleons with which to convey units anymore so he also has to rebuild them. Couer has 5 coastal cities facing me, so the next war plays out the same but more vicious given I'll start assaulting his coastal cities. If he does declare war (or refuses to accept peace) then the aim is to raze every coastal city on his east coast.

After that, whatever. Looking at demographics I'm doing OK in GNP, up to third in CY and MFG and land area. I can't win without going through Joey, and I'm not willing to try that given he has a stupidly large land army and he borders me (plus dtay being shafted by Gav, but I think Gav fucked up his war because he didn't bring siege like he should have, explained above, so I don't see an opportunity to win here anymore). get a GS/GM in 2 turns from Nightshade, GP in 12 turns from R101, trigger a GA soon after that to get into Mercantilism. I'd love to burn a turn to get into OR, but I don't see that happening due to Chumchu. He'll just see the lack of Theo as an opportunity, not realising it's an opportunity to get his teeth kicked in.

[Krill]

Chumchu accepted peace. Bpt up to 700 this turn, -170gpt with wealth builds. 1250 gold saved.

I never know how to reposition units at this point because the future actions of opponents are unpredictable. Gav accepted OB and offered map trade, Joey just isn't positioning for war and I have a chariot running around his lands.

I can't justify any move that doesn't prepare for war with frigates, and it puts me close to Steel, cannons makes me a bit safer as well. GA, well, I want to be in Rep/Fued/Slavery/Merc/Theo at end of the Next GA and I don't know about Constitution due to cost. I'm 12 turns from being able to trigger the GA, so I might have to wait a bit, or work out if burnings turn to revolt to Merc early is worth it for a straight, flat beaker boost. If I am making wealth and then breakeven is 550bpt and I make an excess of 100 for growth, then revolting to Merc for 10 turns before I otherwise could get into it is probably about enough to make the trade...but what about the delay to Frigates? Meh, something to figure out....