[Spoilers] Shallow Thought and Hitru's series of (unfortunate?) events

[shallow_thought]

Two more turns rolled through, with an embarrassing interval in the middle when I managed to click into a diplo screen when the game was paused and couldn't get out until someone unpaused .

The barb initially decided not to attack (OH predicted this in a side comment, as the odds were too bad). However, I moved to block his river crossing again, and this time he did attack at the same 0.7% odds. The RNG doesn't hate me that much - flawless win (it was only when I checked the event log I realised he had attacked rather than just wandered off). The warrior is moving back towards AA a tile as I realised I would be caught out if a barb came out of the fog to the N. When the border pop comes in he can go back to fog-busting, or checking on RFS-81. Magic Science's scout was - at worst - scratched to 0.9% by the lion, and is standing there marvelling at my busy workers. They are a little less busy than his EXP bunch though - he founded a third city the same turn I did, and he's slightly ahead in score (for what that's worth - I suspect a chop rather than a whip somewhere compared to us).

He could try to be annoying by declaring war and moving onto the copper. Denying me working for even a couple of turns is technically worth the scout's hammers, but if he's going to be like that I'd rather know now. He does seem to be doing odd stuff with the clock - playing but not finishing turn. It's entirely possible he's bending over backwards to be polite while we are in contact and I'm just mis-understanding, of course.




None of this delayed the settlement of Beatrice B. Following DaveV's suggestion I will be mixing character names in with the (occasionally mangled) titles. The obvious risk of confusion in having two cities called BB is something we're just going to have to live with.

My micro notes have become slightly out of sync with the game. This may be because of genuine differences (I think I may have worked the lake at AA in the sim for a turn or, for 2f2c rather than the 1f1h I've preferred in game), but is probably just me having not written down the changes quite right when I took Hitru's latest suggestions on board. I'm rather surprised I kept up as far as I did. I may have time to try and fix my sandbox, but it seems unlikely. The thing I noticed is that I need three turns of cash to get enough for AH, not two...

Hopefully the next few turns will get us some visibility on the sea to the south, and another settler. Then granaries, axes and a settler for the silver area, arriving a bit after t60.

[shallow_thought]

Looks like I'll have to stop complaining about Magic Science's scout. It seems as if he has done me sterling service in taking half the health off a barb warrior. That would also mean he's dead, of course .




That health loss means my odds against the barb attacking on flatland or defending in a city are over 99%, which means that my existing warriors could handle him - getting into position just in time to prevent him pillaging the copper, or easily getting into AA. Depending on the order in which things resolve in a PB, he could cost me a turn of working the copper tile. Is the order player-barbs-production or barbs-player-production? If the latter, I'm OK.
EDIT - must be b-p-p, or else people would be a lot less calm about whipping defenders.

Regardless, I've put a precautionary turn into an axe at the cap. If I otherwise carry on with the plan, this will mean less overflow when I whip the workboat next turn, which might delay the settler or the subsequent builds. However, I'm feeling just a little stretched with three warriors to cover a rather spread-out empire of three (soon four) cities. Road to AA was next up in the micro anyway now that the chop into the worker is done, which will help.

Alternatively, I can whip the axe next turn. That will definitely delay things a little, but is by no means a disaster. I would probably lose out on being able to scout with the workboat before it's needed at AA, but that's minor. I'm not sure of the delay on the settler - I could sim, but need to go set up the BBQ instead (parents are due round in 25mins). Which means that I may need to be extra-careful if I do play again tonight . I really need to move over into playing turns in the early evening - I could have done that today, but playing before breakfast and then again later has helped keep the turns rolling on.

Although MS actually finishing turn might help with that too... but I think he may be making time for his ded-lurker to contribute, which is fair enough. Tomorrow it could well be me popping in, deciding it's too complex to rush and leaving it until after work.

[Old Harry]

It is Barb-Player-Production (-research-food I think).

[shallow_thought]

After all that, the barb simply vanishes - and he doesn't reappear next turn either. I'm going to need my warrior to cover my fourth city, so if he comes back it will be awkward - I've whipped the workboat into the settler, and would much rather not double-whip the cap. The nice thing is that nothing has been delayed - I've just ended up with a few hammers in an axe rather than overflow. So, everything is eerily quiet.




Now, I'll have a settler out next turn and be up to four cities in three more. My notes say that Magic Science had three cities a couple of turns ago, but now he doesn't. I could have become confused, of course, while worrying about being locked in the diplo screen, but if I had been paying attention to civstats...




That's MS score going down in Superdeath's turn. It's only taken 5 turns for me to notice . That would fully explain any delay in playing - apologies if you ever read this, Magic Science! Now, that could be a lucky wondering warrior, but I suspect an early Impi push. I need to scout this out. Sadly, Impis are a very good counter against Immortals if we're both just out there in the wilds. Well, with hammers in one axe I feel a bit happier. I'll be even happier once I get a border pop at AA - it's now connected by road, which is nice, but means I'd need three turns to whip a defender. It's unlikely I'm going to get assegaied, but not impossible.

Ah, putting hammers into an axe there would wreck my granary micro. Let's hope Superdeath is busy elsewhere. But I am now wondering exactly what happened to the barb warrior .

[JR4]

Hey, you will soon have four cities - it feels like the game just started a couple of weeks ago! The turn pace has been pretty good.

What is your long-term plan for Bad Beginning?

[Old Harry]

Where do you think superdeath is? Other side of magic science or neighbouring you both?

[shallow_thought]

No pictures this turn. I was a little bit selfish and chose not to end turn this morning, as I wanted time to calculate whether I could afford to put two turns into an axe at AA, and how long it would take me to produce one at BB.

For AA, I can only put one turn in, as I need 10 (maybe 11?) hammers in the granary to let me whip immediately after the chop comes in. For a moment I forgot that a chop is only 20h   . Still, one turn into the axe now is a useful precaution, even if it I'd have to wait one more turn before an emergency whip.

BB is harder. It's not connected to the copper yet,  I don't need more warriors and don't really want a spear. Also, I'm going to whip it to back 1 pop to finish the granary, so it will be few more turns before I could whip another defender. I'm working a plains hill mine rather than a grassland forest for 4h rather than 2f1h, so will get decent overflow into whatever is built next, but there will be a gap of a few turns while pop regrows, which means that the axe is probably the wrong thing (barracks for the border pop seems more to the point). Not a lot I can do - if there is a threat around t50 I can choose to delay the whip and see what I can do when copper connects along the coast with the cap's border pop.

I'm probably worrying about nothing anyway, but that is something I'm good at   .

Hey, you will soon have four cities - it feels like the game just started a couple of weeks ago! The turn pace has been pretty good.

What is your long-term plan for Bad Beginning?

Yeah, long term planning is a thing, isn't it? Right now it looks like it will make a decent mixed-function BurAcadaCap; it's certainly going to have to supply a decent chunk of our commerce in the mid-term, with it's five flat, grassland river tiles (one shared). I've mined a river grassland hill because ... I mine hills. Also, short term I need a decent tile to work between founding the next city - giving up sugar - and getting another workboat out to net the clams. I do wonder if a cottage might be better? But in the medium term it's going to have to carry the empire quite hard, as a source of troops, workers and settlers. I think once we're up to 6-7 cities it will build a library, so that we have at least some chance of digging out of the economic hole I'll probably be putting us in.

Trying to get my head up to the horizon - I really do plan to just push the settler/worker wonder, backed with plenty of troops; that jungle is going to take a lot of chopping. There won't be a Pyramids at the cap, even with stone. I doubt there will be one at all - what forests are around are earmarked for granaries, quick barracks and Moai at BB. GLit might be of some interest, but I doubt it - I suspect we'll be pushing inland. I don't plan on pushing for religion (although the happy would be nice).

Where do you think superdeath is? Other side of magic science or neighbouring you both?

I wish I knew! I'm pretty confident Magic Science's scout came from the north, as I was scouting in arc from the SW when he appeared. Whether that means that's where MS is a different matter. There's also the mysterious wounded lion to the W, suggesting someone's scout died there. I'm close to RFS-81, but it took a while for these others to appear, so I wonder if the layout is three pairs? If so, I suspect I will count myself lucky in my neighbour. Hopefully, with AH coming in in 5-6t (depends on the maintenance hit from the new city), we'll get a couple of Immortals out and be able to go see.

[shallow_thought]

A turn of cock-ups. With any luck they will be minor, but it's annoying. Moved warrior to new city site (on hill) first; good. All clear, so move settler to join - fine. Move the worker; my plan was to put one turn into a cottage and then move into forest to chop, but this doesn't really save a worker turn, so I just moved the worker to the forest. Except, that is out of borders and I'm dead if there is a wolf or panther 2NE. I'm pretty sure that would have been visible as I'd moved - and I didn't see anything -  but there would have been nothing I could do about it, as I didn't pause the move to check. Sloppy, but hopefully I won't get punished for it.




Down south, the workboat uncovers a rather grim looking rock, but one that does have crabs and whales - which I just managed to remember are enabled by Sailing in RtR. That'll be worth an IMP settler at some point. Problem is I think I have miscounted tiles and will now be a turn late netting crabs at AA. Not a disaster, but irritating.




I'm going to have to do some thinking once I see what my tech rate is with four cities (I need to try and update my sim - it will still be a useful approximation). Rough plan remains:
- Settle silver; will need decent axe support.
- Another worker. With workboat tiles, one more will do for the moment.
- Pasture horses (if we've got them!), get scouting Immortals out.
- Build some cottages. Not sure where I'm going to get the pop to actually work them, as we're happy cap limited for at least another 10t and the cap needs to keep building stuff, which implies whipping.
- Get to Writing after AH; find time for a library at cap, hope that keeps economy going. Worst case get a library at BB and run scientists to help get to Currency, but that's a way off.
- Settle land to W/NW - there are enough cows. Will need some military support.
- Push for IW, which enables inland settling.
- Worry about Impis, Praetorians etc.

I did remember to switch AA back to a granary, so the granary whips stay on schedule. No international news. Still two turns before I get graphs on MS - I think this implies he is still spending on me. You'd think he had a better target .

[shallow_thought]

Got away with my foolishness! The workboat miscount was actually that I could have scouted one more tile - it will be in place next turn for border expansion at AA. Which is a good thing, as that city just grew and is now working a lake and an unimproved grassland after a chop . Whip a granary next turn, then look to get a mine and a cottage down - workboats are all very well, but I'm running short on worker labour - what I have is heavily focused on chops. Speaking of that, chop at cap finishes workboat and overflows into granary, while BB starts a barracks. It will be putting hammers into an axe just as soon as it can though - Charriu has turned up from the west. My warrior retreats to go cover BB. Against a single warrior I'm prepared to gamble a little - it's no so urgent to be able to get an axe that it's worth delaying the city growth back to 2 pop.




I don't think that a warrior has come round in a big circle or arc, so I do think Charriu is to the west himself. What's interesting is that he has already met RFS-81. In fact, thay have more EP on each other than RFS-81 and I do, implying that they both met earlier and have spent primarily against each other (I think) rather than third parties.




This leads to a map hypothesis - it's a simple ring around the world, three civs on the top, three on the bottom. Top and bottom civs may or may not be offset. If so, Magic Science is between the Zulu and Rome, while those two delightful civs neighbour each other, and neither are terribly close to me. That would be ... nice .

Got graphs on MS - he has been quite visibly building power, although I suspect that's only two axes in practice, and I should be able to match that (and a bit more) quickly if needed.




Carnivore Carny (Carnivorous Carnival was too long; the shortened form is even more disturbing if anything) went down last turn. That takes me to four cities, while both my contacts have two (although in MS case, as said, I reckon he made it to three). Bit of a farmer's gambit so far. Will definitely need axes for cover for the next round of pushes. We've come to the end of my detailed, civ-wide micro planning.

In all the excitement I forgot to look at the actual demo screen . They don't mean a lot to me, but I should start to be more regular about keeping an eye on them. I've already logged back in once since playing to reset EP to Charriu, so I'll stay out for the moment. There'll probably be another turn along soon.

[shallow_thought]

I guess, I could also put together some thoughts about the opposition in this game - more about the civs than the players, given the green nature of the game. As I said at the time, I'm not a huge fan of the snake pick, as I think you get the same handful of civs and leaders over-and-over, but this one did throw out some surprises.

1. Charriu & Zalson -- Tokugawa of China

Poster boy for my "same old, same old" complaint - a very solid civ/leader choice, also currently being played in PB39. Can't expect people to make variant picks just for the sake of it though! As a civ, China wants to get value from Cho-Ku-Nus in the medieval era, and they are particularly good at wrecking coastal cities - like most of mine.

Charriu has just gone out of PB39, but showed some teeth before he went. Zalson I know from SG's and his "one turn at a time" threads. A solid rather than spectacular player, and not too much MP experience, but very focused, very good at managing the details of an empire, long past the point where I tend to just wing it. I haven't noticed Zalson logging in, but this pair are rocking the post-count and views, so I suspect lots of detailed discussion. I don't expect a focus on early aggression from them, but Zalson knows my builderish tendencies, and could look to exploit them if I don't keep my guard up.

I don't think I'll be wanting to attack into competently handled AGG/PRO any time soon, and I expect competence as the bare minimum here. I therefore need to establish where a border is that we can both tolerate, and then get it set. It would be hard to dislodge them if I allow them to get too close, but I don't want to trigger an attack by them either. Oh - and no more flatland settlements out that way...


2. RFS-81 & haphazard1 -- Pacal of Mongolia

The Pacal choice is unusual in RtR. A mistake? Actually, if they have a start position like mine, cheap workboats, lakes and coast all combine to make FIN/EXP pretty nice to start with. Matching my four little cities with two in pop, mfg and crop yield at the moment (mind you, so is Charriu). I think the civ was a smart response to the potential for aggression being indicated by other pick. Those Gers are still a bit pricy without AGG though, and HBR is a little way down the tree and doesn't add much more itself (compare to IW and the jungle chopping it brings). I think this combination could look like an early target to some players...

I know both these guys from the MOO games. I'd say they're similar to me in mindset - quite cautious and buildery; in fact, in the MOO SGs I'd say they were more cautious than me. I'd be very surprised if they focus on early aggression. I'm more familiar with Civ IV than RFS-81, and probably know less than haphazard1. At a personal level, I'd rather be nice but we'll have to see what the game brings. A secure, friendly border while I try to expand towards a wounded Magic Science would be ideal


3. superdeath & masterjason -- Boudica of Zulu

I think it is possible to play builder Zulu, leveraging the Ikhanda's maintenance bonus and the Impi's reputation to just expand. But that would be AGG/IMP or AGG/EXP - not AGG/CHA. To be fair, those choices had gone, and AGG/FIN, AGG/ORG seem a little weak. But this choice says "I'm going to take your stuff from your cold dead hands". I'd considered suggesting banning the Zulu: it's not so much that the Impi is so overpowered, but that it comes at a combination of tech that everyone needs early anyway (more so in RtR than BTS, actually, where you can skip hunting for a while). But I suspect that just promotes some other civ to "clear first choice".

Superdeath has been playing a bunch of PBs. He died in 38, but quite a way into the game, and the vets seemed genuine in their congratulations in the tech thread on his defense. In 39 he seems to be very much a power. I think masterjason may already have been lurking him in one or both of those? Even before his civ pick, I was expecting trouble here.

And - making all this look like hindsight - he's already razed one of Magic Science's cities. How to handle them? Find where they are - somehow avoiding getting an Immortal speared to death - and make sure that there are axes to cover that direction. Then walls, etc.


4. Magic Science & Mr. Cairo -- Mao of Inca

Three traits - PRO/EXP/mini-CRE. Takes a hit on the starting techs, and needs archery to defend well, lacking in free C1 or cheap barracks. May have been too slow a choice given the neighbours . That culture will help defend, or to put pressure on any forward plants, but no more so than AGG barracks. No offensive edge prior to crossbows.

Don't have much to say about the players - will have to form opinions in-game. Currently pencilling in expanding towards them, mostly because of their Zulu troubles.


5. shallow_thought & Hitru -- Ghengis of Persia

Scout with 2-movers that get defensive bonuses, so have a chance even against axes if you pick the terrain well. Shame about Impis. Settle fast, settle often, backed by C1 - or even C1+Shock - axes. Worry about the economy later, if you get the chance.

Hitru could very well have been playing in this game if he hadn't been so busy taking an active part in PB38. And that would have been scary for everyone else. As it is this is mostly me, with occasional bits of sage advice. There are bigger threats in the game.

Losing the post count war something rotten  


6. Coeurva and OT4E -- Shaka of Rome

I've made my thoughts on this pick clear. It's all about AGG Praetorians. I'm not actually sure that it would be a strictly  "strong" pick in a veteran field, but in a herd of noobies, this could be fun for the player.

Coeurva is, I think, one of the more experienced players in this game, and OT4E stands out amongst the dedlurkers as a regular towards the top end of things. A regular with a reputation for controlled but all-in aggression; doesn't always come off, but usually takes a big chunk out of the target.

Even scarier than the Zulu. Roughly the same counter-plan of scouting/axes/walls, but will need to find something else as well.