Pregame Analysis

[Gaspar]

So I've been [strike]pestered[/strike] asked by a few folks within and without to provide my typical pregame opponent analysis for our opponents this game. So this thread will serve that purpose. TEAM members who find my pregame analysis goofy and/or pointless can jump in a lake. TEAM members who would like to add their own thoughts to those within are more than welcome. I'll try and get one team up per day so that we can discuss a bit. Hopefully this will inform some of our early choices to some extent but really, its 90% intended to be fun. If you don't like fun, well, you've joined the right TEAM.

[Gaspar]

Welcome ladies and gentlemen to the 8th wonder of the world
The flow of the century, always timeless... Opponent profiles!
Thanks for coming out tonight. You could've been anywhere in the world, but you're here with me, I appreciate that.

(I did that in 38 and liked it so I'm sticking with it. Mad props to the jiggaman.)


We'll start off with the first team:






Darrell's Tropical Trolls

Known Roster:

• darrelljs
  
• novice
  
• Ichabod
  
• superjm
  
• Tatan
  
• plako
  
• Nydaeli
  
• naufragar
  
• zakalwe
  
• pling
  
• Brian Shanahan
  
• mzprox
  
• uberfish
  
• DaveV
  
• spacemanmf
  
• spellman
  

Roster breakdown:
This is probably the second most stacked lineup of all our opponents. Darrell is a competent game-manager who is prone to a "WTF" moments that undo his good work. Novice is one of the top 10 players on the site and on a short-list for best micro-manager. Ichabod is a strong FFH'er who is just coming into his own in BTS, but his strongest FFH work has always been his micro. plako is either overrated or underrated, I'm never quite sure. He's always in the conversation and is probably the player on this site you least want to rush as he's beaten back a crazed psychopath in just about every game he's played, including Agg Rome twice. uberfish is another strong player who hasn't really taken part in the BTS MP scene but has great game sense and solid micro combined with a predilection for fancy play. spaceman is underrated because of his association with novice but he's shown to be an excellent tactical general if not much interested in micro. The rest of the players are largely unknown quantities as it comes to BTS.


They're playing as:





Suryavarman of India (EXP, CRE, Mysticism, Mining, Mausoleum, Fast Worker)

Pick overview:
Sury of India is about the fastest starting combination that exists. You could make an argument that Sury of China or Sury of someone Agri/Wheel would be faster but the Fast Worker more than makes up for the suboptimal Mysticism start. (I know Krill thinks the FW is overrated but I disagree.) If they're not in front by T75 then they're screwed. They'll be in front on T75.

Strategically, with 4 FIN opponents they're pretty well locked in to going after Pyramids and/or GLH to keep up economically. I expect GLH to be super-broken-good on a Commodore map, who never met a Pink Dot, Plains Cow or Coastal Plant he didn't love. Basically the platonic ideal of a Sury/India start is nospace's PBEM17 wtfpwnjob. If they land both Mids and GLH, we're all in trouble. Now that map was absolutely outstanding for Sury/India to chop out a bunch of wonders. We know Commodore really hates the Pyramids metagame that has evolved in the PBEMs so he's likely to have made Stone a fairly difficult get.

Implications for us:

Well for one, we probably least want these guys as a neighbor. As the other Cre civ they're most likely to be expanding as hard as we'd like to be, plus their greatest strength is in the early game. If they are a neighbor, some sort of targeted harassment to disturb their expected wonder-whoring is probably a good play, diplomatic consequences be damned. Absolutely do not want to NAP these guys early, particularly with nothing threatening offensively in the Ancient UU department.

If they have an exploitable weakness, nobody on that team is especially good at diplo. novice and space have a decided distaste for it. Darrell is probably the most likely diplomat and Krill's so deeply in his head that I'd feel very good about that combination. zakalwe would actually be a stellar diplomat but I doubt he's interested in that type of prominent role. I expect them to have no trouble achieving a team cohesion, most of their strong players have no ego. The only question will be to see if someone takes charge enough, that would be my main concern if I were on Team Troll.

(All scores out of 5)

Team Troll Snapshot:

Player skill:
Leader/Civ strength:
Aggressiveness:
Intangibles:
Likely Team Cohesion:
Likelihood Team is Just a Vanity Piece for the Captain:
How Angry Their Winning Would Make Me:

Exploitable weakness: Lack of a diplomat, over-reliance on a commerce wonder.
Biggest fear: Land 2 of Pyramids, GLH, Colossus while remaining undisturbed in the early game.
Pre-game prediction: 2nd place.

[Qgqqqqq]

As Im knew here could you
Could you comment more on Commodore's map making? Also is he the only one or is there a team (I know there were comments about original PBEM34 but that's all I've seen).
Comment on the Pyramids metagame? Don't understand the reference to it (how is it so good etc.)
GLH/Collosus surely depend on how much water there is.

How exactly is Krill in Darrel's head? Unless you mean PBEM2.
Also are we assuming us in 1st or is it 2nd out of opponents?

[Gaspar]

Let's see if I can wade through these one by one:

As I'm new here could you
Could you comment more on Commodore's map making? Also is he the only one or is there a team (I know there were comments about original PBEM34 but that's all I've seen).

I believe Commodore did the map solo with input from Mist. Most of the other veteran mapmakers/checkers are playing in the game. Commodore has made a lot of maps around here but has generally shown a predilection towards maps where water plays a large role and there are valuable overseas holdings. He particularly likes Astronomy to be a key tech. He has made a few maps where water is less important but in general those are his tendencies.

Comment on the Pyramids metagame? Don't understand the reference to it (how is it so good etc.)
GLH/Collosus surely depend on how much water there is.

A great many games in the sort of PBEM20-30 range were won/heavily dominated by the team that built the Pyramids. This was generally due to a few factors: FIN was often banned in this period, people sort of rediscovered how good wonders were after the conventional wisdom for a while was that they were overrated, SevenSpirits and mackoti in particular ran several dominant Specialist Economies which are particularly strong in MP because they pay off earlier than Cottage Economies and with Diplo generally either off or limited, the dogpile threat that an early score lead entails was minimized. Pyramids is too good in that sort of a setup because there's nothing that can compete with 6 beaker scientists at that stage of the game.

GLH/Colossus definitely depend on the water level but Commodore has already stated publicly that water will play a big part on this map.

How exactly is Krill in Darrel's head? Unless you mean PBEM2.
Also are we assuming us in 1st or is it 2nd out of opponents?

At least partially a joke, but even the setup thread referenced it a good deal. And as far as where I think we'll finish, you'll have to wait until all the previews are done.

[ironstar]

My decision to join TEAM was largely based on two things:

1) Being able to read Gaspars pregame thoughts.

2) The, however slight, possibility of a drunk Krill.

Glad to see that 1) is already being realized and is just as entertaining as always

[Gold Ergo Sum]

That was very entertaining. I look forward to your rating for Parkin's team winning:

[Gaspar]

Next up, the second signup:






Team Gillette

Known Roster:

• SevenSpirits
  
• Mackoti
  
• YossarianLives
  
• Kyan
  
• yuris125
  
• scooter
  
• shadyforce
  
• Xenon
  
• Cyneheard
  
• Amelia
  
• Cheater Hater
  
• haphazard1
  
• regoarrarr
  
• Merovech
  
• 2metraninja
  
• ATrain
  
• Fintourist
  
• Sommersword
  

Roster breakdown:
This is easily the strongest roster of any of the teams. In my estimation, SevenSpirits, Mackoti and Kyan are all top 10 players on the site AND they have complimentary strengths. Mackoti is probably the best big picture guy I've seen, Seven and Kyan are both micro masters and Kyan easily the silveriest of silver tongued diplomats. You could put together a team with their next strongest three - regoarrarr, Cyneheard and scooter and they'd be competitive in a game like this. Yuri is the only other known quantity on the list but he's a solid game manager as well. The question for them is always going to be cohesion. Mackoti is the most decorated player at RB in terms of games won, but will he be able to shout over the din of players like rego and Cyneheard who talk more and have proven time and again they're just good enough to lose a close game? We can but hope.

They're playing as:





Pacal of the Vikings (EXP, FIN, Hunting, Fishing, Trading Post, Berserker)

Pick overview:
Pacal of the Vikings is a metagame pick without a lot of synergy. Pacal is generally considered the strongest leader available with the two power traits and being able to get off to a fast start and maintain the excellent FIN econ is no doubt awesome. It does portend to mackoti having less influence as he's decidedly anti-FIN. The Vikings are a poor option often, starting with the two cheapest techs, though clearly Commodore set this start up to make both viable. If they have a similar start to us, I'd assume they'll settle their capital for either the fish or deer and quickly pump out city two for the one they orphaned. Still, they'll need to spend more beakers getting worker techs than anyone else with the two cheapest starters.

The real boon to taking the Vikings is the Trading Post, giving you 3-move galleys and triremes to allow you to dominate the waterways early on. Zerks are okay, but nothing to base a gameplan off of. I'd expect them to expand, expand, expand and then aggressively threaten opponents later on. Given Seven's personal tendencies and the Vikings strengths, I'd be shocked if they weren't first to Astronomy.

Implications for us:

These guys have to be the favorites with the best leader and the best collection of player talent. If they're a nearby neighbor, we definitely would love the opportunity to expand up on them and hem them in a bit, since we should have the advantage in border wars early on. I'd expect a GLH try since they'll probably want sailing early anyway and we know mackoti loves the wonder almost as much as the Pyramids.

They're also very scary in diplomacy as Kyan has a knack for making even people he absolutely cannot stand think they're his best friend. I'd not trust a word that came out of these guys.

(All scores out of 5)

Team Gillette Snapshot:

Player skill:
Leader/Civ strength:
Aggressiveness:
Intangibles:
Likely Team Cohesion:
Likelihood Team is Just a Vanity Piece for the Captain:
How Angry Their Winning Would Make Me:

Exploitable weakness: Possible lack of team cohesion, likely to be behind on techs early.
Biggest fear: Land GLH, sprint out to Astronomy, take all the overseas settlements.
Pre-game prediction: Winners.

[Krill]

I would like to point out that we ought to refuse to conduct any business with team scrapie over chat. If they don't like it fuck 'em, we can make sure they don't have a good game.

[Gold Ergo Sum]

I would like to point out that we ought to refuse to conduct any business with team scrapie over chat. If they don't like it fuck 'em, we can make sure they don't have a good game.

As I stated when I reported in for the team huddle:

Alright. I'm here. Whatever we do, we need to smash the goody-two-shoes over at 7's team.

Plan one is obviously to win, but for me, a solid consolation prize would be wrecking havoc on Occam's crew.

[Gaspar]

Third in our series:






Team Pirate

Known Roster:

• OleDavy
  
• pindicator
  
• waterbat
  
• Shoot the Moon
  
• WarriorKnight
  
• kp
  
• luddite
  
• Mardoc
  
• Jkaen
  
• SleepingMoogle
  
• Nakor
  
• Xanes
  
• thestick
  

Roster breakdown:
This team could roughly be described as the "RB Hall of Pretty Good" or roughly our roster minus Krill. Dave is a good leader, mediocre player. Pindicator is one of the more underrated players on the site, very strong when he is engaged and a solid micromanager. Luddite is just a notch below that - also quite strong when he's engaged but with a bit of a predilection for overly fancy play. Shoot the Moon and WarriorKnight are sort of the same player in my mind - good enough, never great. Mardoc is a great guy and that's all I'll say as I rather like him. Nakor, my former teammate twice, is probably the nicest guy on RB. See Mardoc. SleepingMoogle is pretty competent as well. The rest are relatively unknown - Team Pirate probably has more competent and engaged players than anyone else, but they're decidedly lacking in great players.

They're playing as:





Mansa Musa of Inca (SPI, FIN, Agriculture, Mysticism, Terrace, Quechua)

Pick overview:
Mansa of Inca is one of those, let's take some good stuff and throw it together picks. That's okay - synergy is a lot less important than getting good stuff. I've also always though that the idea you had to pair EXP with Inca is overrated - you're going to be building a granary in every city regardless, aren't you? The terrace is easily the best UB in the game, so why not? Downside to SPI/FIN is you have nothing really great in the early game but its mitigated a bit by taking the best early game civ. Downside here is of course Mysticism start, meaning they'll have the same how do we fit everything we need in issue we have, plus one more tech for Pottery.

I'd not expect these guys to start fast but if they're in okay shape mid game, I'd expect them to be in contention.

Implications for us:

The true middle of the pack team with middle of the pack combo. Again, a real bunch of really good guys. Their main advantage is a lot of solid generals on the team - Dave, luddite, Pindicator, Shoot and WK all have extensive experience in war. Still, I expect them to gel as a team well and if they avoid disastrous choices should do well enough. One of the things we often forget is that most the good players on this site are really very good by general MP standards - its just the existence of the Seven's, mackoti's and Krill's that make them shine less brightly. Obviously, Inca wants to REX though they don't have any of the REX traits to go with it. A lot will depend on where they start - if they're next to say, Team Troll one might worry that the combination of CRE and Fast Workers will hem them in a good bit. On the other hand if they start next to the Vikings, maybe they get a decent share of the early land split. Worth noting, with the exception of our own team, these guys probably have the most obvious record of aggression.

(All scores out of 5)

Team Pirate Snapshot:

Player skill:
Leader/Civ strength:
Aggressiveness:
Intangibles:
Likely Team Cohesion:
Likelihood Team is Just a Vanity Piece for the Captain:
How Angry Their Winning Would Make Me:

Exploitable weakness: Lack of a great player, possibility that their many equal talents take them is disparate directions.
Biggest fear: They're left alone long enough to be competitive and beat us to Knights.
Pre-game prediction: 4th place.